There have been a number of improvements behind the scenes on the daily projections (available now!) that I wanted to share before I forget them all. Here it goes:
- As of last week, all Hitter projected Plate Appearances are tied to last 30 day averages (instead of pre-season projections). Adjustments are made based on whether the opposing pitcher is RHP vs LHP. This is a slight improvement from May-September hitter projections in 2014 as they did not reflect the handedness of the pitcher (e.g., Rajai Davis more likely to hit at top of lineup against LHP than RHP)
- As of last week, all Pitcher projected innings are tied to last 30 day ‘Batters Faced’ averages instead of pre-season projected IP. This is an improvement from last year where the IP projections did not factor in recent starts (the pitcher streakiness analysis I did in the offseason drilled home the value of making IP calculations more dynamic).
- Starting today, a hitter’s estimated percent chance of being in the starting lineup (%St) has been updated to be more dynamic. Any player who has started at least 4 games in the last 7 will automatically have a floor of 65%. This helps both the utility of Hittertron as well as improve the Streamonator estimates since it leverages this stat to determine opponent’s offensive strength.
- Starting today, all Hitter daily projections now incorporate opponent bullpen strength. The ratio of Plate Appearances against the starter vs the bullpen has also been adjusted slightly. Previously, PAs credited to bullpen were estimated as against league average pitching.
- Bullpen projections are driven based on last 30 day team usage as well as the projected starter IP. Injured and demoted pitchers are not included. For today’s projections, relievers are removed if they pitched 2 days in a row or pitched past a certain threshold of batters the prior day.
- In a test using May 4th-May 13th projections, the new results led to an average decrease of
negative$2.68 across all players projected at 70+% to start ($10.46 to $7.78). The negative shift is driven by the fact that relievers have better rates than the average pitcher inning.
- In mid-April, we added the following stats in the Player Page Game Logs:
- Hitters – Added ‘BatOrder’ (where a batter hit in the lineup), Opposing Pitcher, and Opposing Pitcher Hand (L/R)
- Starting Pitchers – Added Batters Faced
- Relievers – Added ‘Batters Faced’ and ‘IP Start’ (the inning a pitcher started).
There are several other enhancements we are hoping to get out this year. The one that is experiencing delays right now is customization of league settings for Player Raters/Streamonator/Hittertron. I will post another update in early June.