A great blonde berobed American once said, “In order to be the man, you gotta beat the man.” When it comes to DFS MLB projections, we want to be the man. We just are not sure who, if anyone, we need to beat to wear the championship belt.
So here is our challenge and it is open to anyone who publishes daily DFS MLB projections online. These projections may be free or sold by subscription (like ours for only $9.99/month!). I am willing to put up $500 to make this worth our while (you’ll have to do the same):
- Timeframe: 7 consecutive days during the MLB season
- Objective: See who more accurately projects DraftKings Hitter and Pitcher points for all starting hitters and pitchers (open to considering another DFS scoring system)
- Test: Correlation (r) to actual results with Hitter and Pitcher results averaged together (e.g., a correlation of 0.15 for hitter points and 0.25 for pitcher points = 0.20)
- Projections need to be e-mailed to the other competitor by 11AM EST each day (revisions can be made up to 11AM EST). Failure to make that time will result in every starting hitter and pitcher projected by the opponent getting 0 points.
- Since most lineups will not have posted by this time, each side must project for every possible starting hitter. Only hitters who start that day will be included in the test.
- If either side projects 50 more starting hitter/pitcher games than the other side, they automatically win. Otherwise, both sides have the option to keep or remove each of their unique hitter/pitcher based on whether they help or hurt their overall correlation.
- Correlation (r) is across all games vs an averaging of each day. So a day with 15 games will end up counting 1.5x more than a day with 10 games.
- An individual or individuals affiliated with the company/site must stake the $500.
- We will publish the final results on this post (with more details in our Forums) and on Twitter. Gentleman’s agreement to not be a d*ck if they win or a sore loser if they lose. (All bets are off if either side welches on the $500).
- I have no interest in doing an ‘optimal lineup’ challenge. This is not about DFS skill – this is about providing the best projections for DFS players to build their lineups. Not to mention that reducing daily projections down to one lineup greatly increases the volatility in testing accuracy.
Bring it on. Wooooo!