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A great blonde berobed American once said, “In order to be the man, you gotta beat the man.” When it comes to DFS MLB projections, we want to be the man. We just are not sure who, if anyone, we need to beat to wear the championship belt.

So here is our challenge and it is open to anyone who publishes daily DFS MLB projections online. These projections may be free or sold by subscription (like ours for only $9.99/month!). I am willing to put up $500 to make this worth our while (you’ll have to do the same):

  • Timeframe: 7 consecutive days during the MLB season
  • Objective: See who more accurately projects DraftKings Hitter and Pitcher points for all starting hitters and pitchers (open to considering another DFS scoring system)
  • Test: Correlation (r) to actual results with Hitter and Pitcher results averaged together (e.g., a correlation of 0.15 for hitter points and 0.25 for pitcher points = 0.20)

Additional details:

  • Projections need to be e-mailed to the other competitor by 11AM EST each day (revisions can be made up to 11AM EST). Failure to make that time will result in every starting hitter and pitcher projected by the opponent getting 0 points.
  • Since most lineups will not have posted by this time, each side must project for every possible starting hitter. Only hitters who start that day will be included in the test.
  • If either side projects 50 more starting hitter/pitcher games than the other side, they automatically win. Otherwise, both sides have the option to keep or remove each of their unique hitter/pitcher based on whether they help or hurt their overall correlation.
  • Correlation (r) is across all games vs an averaging of each day. So a day with 15 games will end up counting 1.5x more than a day with 10 games.
  • An individual or individuals affiliated with the company/site must stake the $500.
  • We will publish the final results on this post (with more details in our Forums) and on Twitter. Gentleman’s agreement to not be a d*ck if they win or a sore loser if they lose. (All bets are off if either side welches on the $500).

Final Note:

  • I have no interest in doing an ‘optimal lineup’ challenge. This is not about DFS skill – this is about providing the best projections for DFS players to build their lineups. Not to mention that reducing daily projections down to one lineup greatly increases the volatility in testing accuracy.

Bring it on. Wooooo!

 

 

   
  1. Sweeny says:
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    What’s up

    Looking to improve my avg and obp

    Is grandal worth dropping to stash span or harrison on the ir and picking up any of these guys…Neil walker, collabello, parades, cron or Castellanos

  2. Kid A says:
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    Been bringing guns to knife fights since that Zellweger marriage. Stranger Danger.

  3. J-FOH says:
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    Gangsta Gamble!

  4. Chadaristic says:
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    This is awesome!

    And I read that whole post as if it were a promo from The Attitude Era.

  5. The Iron Horse says:
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    Oh Hell Yeah!!!! Just Bring it Rudy!!!! Love it!!!!

  6. Kendrick Llama says:
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    Rudy, is it worth dropping Morales for Sano?

  7. go Bucs! says:
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    Oh Wise one…
    to switch topics— Need quick advice Please.

    Brock holt or Chris Colabello or DJ LeMahieu,???

  8. go Bucs! says:
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    OH WISE ONE… NICE article btw, do have a ?? for you. Who do grab

    Brock Holt or DJ LeMahieu, or Chris Colabello?

    • It matters what your team needs. I think Holt has the most value on day-to-day basis while Pedroia is out. After that, LeMa. I have Colabello and he seems to be riding the bench more than ideal.

      • go Bucs! says:
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        well …I do already have Joe Mauer, hmmm?

  9. Malicious Phenom says:
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    Hey Rudy, We starting these 3 tomorrow? 10 team standard roto daily moves.

    Masahiro Tanaka NYY – SP
    @ home v Seattle

    Drew Hutchison Tor – SP
    @ home v Tampa Bay

    Trevor Bauer Cle – SP
    @ Cincinnati

    cheers,

    MP

  10. Clint says:
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    Will SON be updated today for the coming week? Looks like it’s still in limbo for post-break pitcher choices.

    • @Clint: I update every morning but held hostage right now by late probable pitcher assignments.

  11. Sport says:
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    15 team yahoo roto. Keeper league. We keep two hitters and two pitchers. I’m set with Frazier and Rizzo for next year but I am struggling with a pitcher. I plan to keep arrieta but my choices after that are corrasco and Salazar. They are making me bipolar. Keep one of them or am going to need to go shopping before the trade dead line?

    Thank you and I quite confident you guys win the challenge.

  12. Natty Boh says:
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    Give Encarnacion, Jose Fernandez, Craig Kimbrel. Get: Goldy, Teheran, Santiago Castilla. Which side you taking? I’m loaded w/ pitching and in 2nd in K’s.

  13. Bro Jackson says:
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    Rudy, you are the man.

    Can you please use your skills to pick 3 FOREVER.

    Frazier, Joc, Springer and Arenado.

    • Long-term, fade Frazier since he’s by far the oldest. For next 3 years…I still probably drop Frazier given you’ll already have a 3B.

  14. Gray's sports almanac says:
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    I hope you get a bite on that Rudy that sounds fascinating! By the way has anyone else noticed that Drew Hutchison is a homeschooler this year, dramatic splits!

    • thanks. i have noticed. i keep him on my radar for streaming given his K-potential.

  15. fastfrog says:
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    More likely to close by end of August (due to trade of current closer): Jeremy Jeffress or Daniel Hudson?

  16. Bossmanjunior333 says:
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    10 team h2h limited moves:

    C McCann 1B Tiexera 2B Kipnis 3B Donaldson SS Desmond OF Trout OF Marte OF Cespedes UTL Ortiz BN Soler

    My team is doing well in terms of home runs and run/rbi production, but a little light on stolen bases and BA. The guys I am trying to target are Gomez, Gardner, Ellsbury, and Brantley. Would you trade Ortiz/Tex for any of those guys?

    Thanks!

  17. Mike says:
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    Would u drop Franco(phil) and pick up Schwarber(Cubs)
    Thanks

  18. darkness says:
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    Hey Rudy,

    I bought the streamonator and the hittertron this year, definitely has been worth it and thanks for all the work you put into these projections. I was checking out the player rater, and the 6v6 holds rest of season rater in the Yahoo section seems to have random values for HLDS $. Some closers get a value of 0.1 and others get a value of -0.7(like david robertson). Also some holds guys get value in this stat (jake mcgee 4.2 HLDS$) while others do not (betances 0.1 HLDS$). Does this have something to do with difficulty in projecting holds? It almost seams to me that some of the relievers are not being graded in this category ( all those who show 0.1 HLDS$). If this is a pain in the ass to fix don’t worry about it, thanks again for all the content you guys post.

    • @darkness: thanks re: Streamonator and Hittertron! LOL, I hate projecting Holds so much! I just reviewed my logic and found several areas of improvement. It’s far from an exact science but look over the results and let me know if any players jump out as ‘off’.

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