Now that the season has begun, the question turns to what to do in this space each week. At least once a month, I will provide an update on how I rank guys across the various positions. But as we are just a few days into the season, it seems a bit soon to do that. It’s tempting to do, and everyone loves to rank things. However, I’m afraid doing so at this point would be an exercise in overreaction. You drafted the team you have because you believed those players were going to be good. Do you really want to just dump a bunch of them overboard because they had a bad game or two? This isn’t football! It’s a long season! Have some patience! Lest you think I’m yelling at you, I’m not. I need that reminder myself.
Three to four games is too soon to come to any sweeping conclusions about who is bad and who is good this year. Though maybe you feel strongly that, yes, Luke Raley is going to hit 120 home runs this year. And Jose Ramirez is going to go from a perennial top-10 player to hitting .125. If you do, please let me know if there’s an opening in your league next season.
That said, there are things to pay attention to in these early days. Some might turn out to be actionable. Some might not. But right now, we want to gather as much information as we can so that we can make decisions based on something other than hunches and vibes. So here are a few things to keep your eye on these first couple weeks.
Is the League Juicing Up Again?
I’m not referring to the players here, Jurickson Profar aside. Rather, I’m very interested to see if we’re back to having a bouncy ball in play after a couple years of a comparatively dead one. I don’t have the hard numbers in front of me, but it certainly feels like we’re seeing more offensive output to begin the year than we have the last couple years.
The first couple days of the season saw some of the best pitchers in baseball get lit up. Paul Skenes wasn’t helped by his defense, but guys like Logan Webb, Cole Ragans, and Jesus Luzardo got lit up their first time out. Maybe it’s just coincidence. Bad outings do happen, after all. But at the same time, three homers for Luke Raley? Two for Brendan Donovan? Yes, we were all excited about this year’s rookie class, but having them all come out like gangbusters feels a little too good to be true.
If the ball is juiced and set to be flying over the fence with abandon this summer, there’s only so much you’ll be able to do about it. Expect the pitchers available on the waiver wire to be less appealing on a weekly basis than they have been the last couple seasons. You’ll need to be very careful when it comes to who you decide to stream. Even the guys you drafted to anchor your staff might need to be watched with your hands covering your eyes.
Or, maybe it’s just been a flukey first few days, things settle down, and everything goes the way you expected it to on draft day. That’s why we’re keeping an eye on it!
Platoon Situations
Playing time is something that you always want to keep an eye on, particularly in points leagues. They typically have smaller rosters than roto leagues, and since they don’t care about rate stats, playing time is king. Every draft season, we get our hopes up and have visions of managers filling out the same lineup every day, and righty/lefty splits cease to exist. Alas, those dreams often quickly run head-on into the reality of platoons and making sure everyone gets to play.
This year, it took all the way until game one for Spring Training hype man Jac Caglianone to take a seat against a lefty. Ben Rice got pushed way up draft boards due to last year’s numbers and the promise of further improvement just to take a seat for game two. If you had either of them in your lineup for the short week, it was pretty frustrating.
Now, do I think Jac and (especially) Rice will sit against every lefty their teams face this season? No, I don’t. But it is something to keep an eye on. If it keeps happening, especially with the young Royal, it will make it all the more important to look at who is lined up to pitch against them each week. It’s hard to start an outfielder who might only play 4 games in a given week.
Those are just two examples. I just as easily could have gone with Noelvi Marte and Chandler Simpson. The point is, pay attention to who on your roster is sitting more often than you expected them to, because you may need to pivot to someone getting more consistent at-bats.
Lineup Position
Again, the more plate appearances your guys can get in a points league, the better. Sometimes they get less than you like because they’re not playing at all. Other times, they’re missing out on opportunities because they’re buried at the bottom of the lineup. The question is, are they likely to remain there, or is there an opportunity for advancement?
The first couple games of the season, Michael Harris II was penciled in all the way down in the 9th spot. That’s not ideal for anyone, but it’s especially bad for someone who already loses value in this format. However, on Sunday, he was hitting 7th. Still not great, but it’s better. Assuming the names you expect to be good in the Atlanta lineup hit the way they should, it will be hard for Harris to move much higher. Even if he doesn’t, I’d like to see him avoid hitting all the way at the bottom of the order.
I mentioned Noelvi Marte as a playing time concern in the previous section. I bring him up here again because in the two games he’s played, he’s hit 8th and 9th. The good news is that with an average ADP of 145, he wasn’t drafted as one of the cornerstones of anyone’s roster. The bad news is that he was still drafted to be a starter. Do not even consider dropping him. But in a typical points league, I would consider benching him for a week. There’s definite potential in that bat, and even hitting 7th or 8th, he could put up must-start numbers. But if he’s sitting multiple times a week and hitting 9th? It makes him a lot harder to trust, particularly if the replacement level off the waivers is relatively high. So, keep an eye on it.
Rotation Shenanigans
To be fair, this is something to keep an eye on all season long. However, with most teams having extra built-in off days to start the season, teams can get particularly annoying with their pitching choices. For example, Mick Abel got people excited about him as a late-round pick after his performance won him a spot in the Twins’ rotation this spring. So, naturally, they brought him in to replace Bailey Ober on Sunday afternoon. (The fact that he looked terrible is a different issue than we’re dealing with here.)
If you’re in a league with weekly rosters, prepare yourself for the possibility that someone you were counting on to get a start might not. If you’re in a daily league, be ready to pivot if someone you were planning to stream ends up not taking the mound. Though, if the ball is juiced, you may just want to wait and see what the next day looks like, anyway. When in doubt, consult the Streamonator.
