Even though it’s barely February, I thought it was time to put together some very early pre-projections rankings for points leagues. I’m not a big fan of early rankings because so much can change between now and draft day, but why not give it a go. I never understood how people could buy those fantasy baseball magazines they sell at the newsstand. They are printed months in advance, and the content is easily outdated by the time you read them. I guess with the internet now those have seen a drastic drop in sales, but I can’t tell you how many guys used to pick one up on the way to the draft and use that as their holy grail.
I found these gems in a box in my basement!
Personally I dislike online drafts. Don’t get me wrong, they are convenient and, at this point, a necessity, but they take way too much of the preparation out of the process. I miss the days when I had to show up live with a Trapper Keeper containing the research I had done over the last four weeks. Players organized by position using folder tabs, handwritten cheatsheets, a set of highlighters and, of course, one of those magazines I just sh*t on just because I felt I had to. Now you can log into your league’s online draft site ten minutes before your draft and it has all the players laid out for you with rankings, projections and average draft position. What used to take weeks of hard work and determination has now been reduced to something many take for granted. What I hate the most is that a player isn’t going to slip by someone because they missed them when doing their research, or they forgot to write their name down when they were transferring their notes from a page of scribble to a much neater sheet of players. Now when it’s your turn it pretty much shows you who you should pick. With that all said I realize that the days of live drafts has come and gone. They are just not realistic anymore. My primary points league has participants spread out all over the country. Does California still count? Aren’t they pushing for secession? That’s about as good of an idea as drafting Yordano Ventura with your first round pick! Too early?
The guy pictured above won his league thanks to Razzball!
As I begin my 2017 points leagues campaign I’d like to project the first two rounds of a 12-team draft without the aid of any projections. I usually don’t start preparing my actual stat projections until early March, so today I’m mostly flying blind. Going commando. If I were the owner of all twelve teams here’s how I’d pick the first two rounds. I’m also certain I’d win this league.
One quick note. Player values and rankings will vary from league to league based on said league’s scoring system. For the purposes of today’s demonstration I’m basing my selections on the following points system:
Hitters:
RUN (+1), RBI (+1), 1B (+1), 2B (+2), 3B (+3), HR (+4), BB (+1), KO (-1), SB (+1), CS (-1)
Pitchers:
WIN (+5), LOSS (-5), IP (+3), K (+1), BB (-1), SAVE (+7), BLOWN SAVE (-3), ER (-1), HIT (-1), HBP (-1), WP (-1)
Round 1
Pick 1: Clayton Kershaw – For the last two seasons I’ve been telling everyone that will listen (all seven of you) that Kershaw is the top player in points leagues. I am back for a third helping to tell you the same. Clayton Kershaw is the Mike Trout of points leagues. The bee’s knees. The cat’s meow. The ant’s pants. If you run any of those through the Razzball synonym generator you’ll get “the sh*t” or “the tits”.
Pick 2: Mike Trout – Mike Trout is still the top hitter in fantasy baseball. While he’s got a few guy nipping at his heels, none have managed to move ahead of him. He’s a safe bet for 30 homers, 100 runs, 100 RBIs and 20 stolen bases.
Pick 3: Nolan Arenado – I like Arenado at the three spot because he plays half his games in Colorado, plus ten in homer-friendly Chase Field in Arizona. Last year the only hitter with more points than Nolan was Mookie Betts. I’m going with Nolan here because he’s already proven he can put up these numbers in two consecutive seasons.
Pick 4: Mookie Betts – Anyone considering taking Betts over Trout is just a fool. Last year he blew his projections out of the water like a fat guy doing a cannonball off the high dive. While I still expect an MVP caliber season, I think his numbers will fall just a bit. However, if he can repeat 2016’s performance, he will leap frog both Arenado and Trout.
Pick 5: Max Scherzer – Yes, two pitchers in my top five. Most points leagues scoring systems are skewed towards pitchers rendering the studs a premium. Last year Scherzer average 21.68 points per start. Over the last three seasons he has averaged 20.283 points. Only Kershaw has averaged more. In a two-start week you are looking at 40 plus points.
Pick 6: Jose Altuve – Just when you think he had peaked in 2015, he proceeds to have a career year in 2016. Hitting 24 homers, driving in 96, scoring 108 runs and stealing 30 bases, Altuve posted 568 points. Only Betts and Arenado scored more. Truth be told, I can see Altuve being taken ahead of Scherzer forty percent of the time.
Pick 7: Bryce Harper – It was only a year ago that everyone was ready to take Harper with the first pick. Many did. Many were disappointed. The thing is that he has the toolset to be the hands down top fantasy hitter. Actually doing so is a whole other ball of wax. I think this is Bryce’s year to put up or shut up. Come on kid, “Make Bryce Harper Great Again”.
Pick 8: Anthony Rizzo – It pains me to say it, but Rizzo has taken the top spot at 1B from Paul Goldschmidt. He’s on a better team, in a stacked lineup and he’s two years younger. It’s damn close, but I’m giving the nod to the big guy from Chicago and his 30/90/100.
Pick 9: Manny Machado – The shortstop eligibility is music to my ears. I’m having flashbacks of Troy Tulowitzki circa 2010. Getting a guy that is going to hit more than 30 bombs at short is a big win. I’d actually have him higher if there weren’t so many other great options at the position. I remember when there were only one or two names to pick from. It’s a new era at the six spot. If you miss out on Machado, you can always grab one of Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager or Xander Bogaerts. Doesn’t sound all that bad, does it? However, if Machado started stealing bases again, watch out. He went from 20 in 2015 to zero in 2016. As a team though, the Orioles stole only 19 bases all season. There were 19 players that stole at least 19 bases all by themselves!
Pick 10: Madison Bumgarner – I love this guy. In a keeper league I am taking him over Scherzer since he is about five years his junior. But in today’s mock two rounder, I’m taking him tenth. He’s a workhorse. Only David Price faced more batters last year. MadBum is good for at least 19 points a start and pitchers in pitcher friendly AT&T Park. Sign me up!
Pick 11: Chris Sale – With his exit from Chicago and arrival in Boston, gone are the days of the 1-0 complete game loss for Chris Sale. I’d be happy with him or Bumgarner at this spot. Just give me one of them and call it a day.
Pick 12: Paul Goldschmidt – Rounding out the first round is the player I projected to lead all hitters in points last year. While you could say I was way off on that one, I projected him to score 466 points. He ended the season with 486. Looks like I under projected for quite a few players. Considering my conservative approach to projections, this does not surprise me. Goldschmidt has the skills to be a top five contributor (bat) in points leagues. His stolen bases increased, but his homers fell to 24. He’s gonna need at least 30 to challenge Rizzo for the MVP at 1B.
Round 2:
Pick 13: Jake Arrieta/Paul Goldschmidt
Pick 14: Miguel Cabrera/Chris Sale
Pick 15: Kris Bryant/Madison Bumgarner
Pick 16: Josh Donaldson/Manny Machado
Pick 17: Yu Darvish/Anthony Rizzo
Pick 18: Noah Syndergaard/Bryce Harper
Pick 19: Joey Votto/Jose Altuve
Pick 20: Edwin Encarnacion/Max Scherzer
Pick 21: Corey Kluber/Mookie Betts
Pick 22: Daniel Murphy/Nolan Arenado
Pick 23: Freddie Freeman/Mike Trout
Pick 24: Stephen Strasburg/Clayton Kershaw
Which starting two do you like the best? Keep in mind that these are what I believe to be the top twenty-four picks based of the best players available. However the “best player available” approach is not always the best approach. For example, if I had the first pick and I took Clayton Kershaw, when my next pick came around at the 24 spot, I most likely would not be taking another pitcher as I did above. The only reason I might is because in the snake draft format that teams gets the next pick. I’d undoubtedly be drafting a hitter at 25. I think I’d go with a Carlos, either Correa or Santana. Probably leaning Santana.
After I generate my projections it will be interesting to revisit these picks and compare them to how I’d pick once I have projections. I will be sure to keep you updated. I know you’ll be waiting with baited breath. I’m not even sure what that means. Rock on!
Follow mala on twitter at @malamoney.
