Points Leagues: Fantasy Baseball Trade Deadline Edition

Can you believe it’ll be August this week?  How time flies…especially during the Summer.  It seems like the All-Star Game was just a week ago!

The next big day on the calendar for most of us fantasy ballers is our league’s trade deadline.  Now’s the time to beef up your roster for the playoffs or final push to the ‘Ship!  Being such an important milestone in our fantasy season, I figured I’d get this analysis out there in plenty of time for you all to make moves.

So, how are we going to do it?  Excellent question, grasshopper(s).

You may recall back on Memorial Day, I did a piece on offensive Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for batters. Go take a look at it HERE.

The big takeaway in that one was the correlation between rankings in Points leagues to WAR.  In fact, of the top 25 leaders in points, 18 were also in the top 25 in WAR.  For all you math majors out there, that’s 72%.

In order to find suitable trade targets, I figured we should look at those that are “stalled” on the WAR list.  I mean, do you think your league mates will be more eager to trade a 4.0+ WAR player or a 0.5 WAR player?  I thought so too!

So, how then can we distinguish who we want to trade for…using WAR?  For that, I will do a data dive into the past three seasons and see if we can find players who have a good WAR when it counts most – August and September.

Our ideal trade targets will be an underwhelming WAR in 2025 but good WAR in the latter months of 2024 and/or 2023.  Will we find some?  That’s the big question.  I haven’t started digging yet, but I sure hope so.

I’ll be back shortly…wish me luck!  While I’m going, why not whistle out an old favorite…

“Take me out to the ball game,

Take me out with the crowd;

Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jack,

I don’t care if I never get back.

Let me root, root, root for the home team,

If they don’t win, it’s a shame.

For it’s one, two, three strikes, you’re out,

At the old ball game.”

There, that was fun.

Again, in summary, we’re looking for players who have stronger WAR numbers in the closing two months of the past two seasons than they’ve had so far in 2025.  Well, I found a few.  Let’s take a look:

For each of these 44 players, their current WAR is below what we saw in the closing months in 2024 and 2023.  In this exercise, that means they may be trade targets in which we can expect some level of positive correction in the coming months.  Of course, there are many other things in play for that to happen, but it’s a starting point in your research.

A few names in particular that stand out to me:

• William Contreras, MIL: On the positive side, Contreras’ K% is lower this season (18.8% compared to >22% last two summers) but that’s about where the positives end.  His current SLG, OPS, ISO, BABIP, WRC+, HARDHit%, Barrel%, EV, and LA are all lower.  He looks like a risk-reward trade candidate, but if his owner parts with him at a reasonable price and we see a late-season resurgence in a few of these categories, he could be a league-winner.
• Marcell Ozuna, ATL: Ozuna’s name is a constant in MLB trade rumors.  Perhaps like some fantasy owners, the Braves think he’s cooked.  One thing that stands out to me is his GB% and Pull%.  He’s hitting the ball into the turf at a higher clip and just not pulling the ball as much – both metrics that clue us into why the counting statistics are suffering.  That also tells me age may very well be catching up to this once feared DH.  I’m probably passing here, but I wouldn’t be opposed to some of you taking a shot if you’re desperate for power.
• Teoscar Hernandez, LAD: This is a tale of two seasons for Teoscar Hernandez.  He started out strong, running out a .315/.333/.600 triple slash before landing on the IL in early May with a Grade 1 adductor strain.  He now sits at .255/.293/.465.  That’s quite a regression.  He had 9 HRs in the first six weeks and added 7 HRs after his return.  On the bright side, 2 of those 7 HRs have come this weekend in Boston.  For me, he’s a strong buy candidate.
• Yainer Diaz, HOU: Diaz has had a pretty unremarkable season after being lifted up in fantasy drafts this Spring.  He’s managed 13 HRs (projected to be around 20), but his other counting stats have really dragged him down.  He’s about 40-50 points lower than projections in all three slash categories (AVG, OBP & SLG), primarily due to lower Pull% and LD%.  Translation = easy outs.  There may be a touch of bad luck here.  I note his Barrel%, HardHit%, E,V and LA are all relatively similar to the past two summers.  Although there’s probably not enough here for me to dive in on, he’s another name to consider if you’re REALLY struggling at the C position (especially in two-C formats).

Take a gander at the other names in the table above and see if there’s a situation that makes sense for your squad.

Remember, it doesn’t matter if you win or lose a trade.  It only matters that your team is BETTER afterwards.  These are words to live by in fantasy baseball (and all fantasy sports, for that matter).

Good luck to you all and keep working those trade lines and waiver wires.  So many of your competitors are now distracted by football.  By keeping your foot on the pedal here, you can make up significant ground.  Don’t give up!

Speaking of football, stroll on over to the Razzball NFL page (https://football.razzball.com/) when you get done.  You’ll find a lot of familiar names providing fantasy football content as you prepare for the draft rush in August.  In fact, if you look closely, you’ll see my name there too!  Go give us a look!

NOTE: I have one last family vacation this summer, so you won’t see an article from me for the next two Mondays.  Don’t fret, my colleagues are here and will take good care of you.  I’ll see you soon!

Until next time, my friends!