One Man’s Trash: This Is No Ordinary World For Duran

Back in 2023, citizens of Planet Earth rubbed the eye boogers away, got up, stretched, and touched grass as the World Health Organization officially declared the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Playing Civilization, I’d chuckle when I’d lose population and get the “Global Pandemic” notification – “This shit is so unrealistic!,” I’d voice to my imaginary friend looking over my shoulder. Taylor Swift was named TIME’s Person of the Year, the Texas Rangers won their first World Series, and AI was beginning to sweep over the globe like a horde of locusts. BUT, the two most important events that year were Twitter changing to X and Son writing up Ezequiel Duran – One Man’s Trash: Duran is Hungry Like the Wolf.

Since I know for sure that you read the above link so that Grey and I receive $.000000000001 per click, I will eschew the normal overview that I do for most players.

For that 2023 season, Duran finished with 14 home runs, 55 runs, 46 RBI, and eight stolen bases in 439 plate appearances. The walk rate was 5.2%, strikeout rate was 27.3%, and the ISO was .167. The slash was .276/.324/.443 but was fueled by a .358 BABIP.

I wrote Duran’s OMT on May 11, 2023. Up to that point, Duran accrued 109 plate appearances and slashed .293/.327/.455 with a .162 ISO. The walk rate was 1%, strikeout rate was 26%, and the BABIP was .368. From that point to the end of the season, Duran slashed .267/.320/.434 with a .167 ISO. The walk rate was 6.4%, strikeout rate was 28%, and BABIP was .351.  He hit 10 home runs, scored 42 runs, drove in 30, and stole six bases.

In the article, I expected regression, but Duran was able to maintain the elevated BABIP and a high ISO.

That seems somewhat relevant because Duran has been on quite the heater recently, slashing .345/.429/.655 with a .303 ISO in 35 plate appearances since May 4th. The walk rate is 14.3%, strikeout rate is 25.7%, and the BABIP is .421.

Prior to that date, Duran slashed .275/.342/.406 with a .130 ISO. The walk rate was 9.1%, strikeout rate was 18.2%, and the BABIP was .333.

Why did I pick a seemingly random date of May 4th? That is when Josh Smith suffered a glute strain and was placed on the 10-day injured list. Ezequiel Duran has been playing regularly, mostly at second base with a few games in the outfield. More importantly, though, after batting toward the bottom of the lineup, Duran has batted second in six of eight games. In the other two contests, he was slotted in at fifth and sixth.

On Monday, it was reported that Smith is also dealing with wrist inflammation, and there is no timetable for his return. Glute injuries can linger, while wrist injuries can sap power and make it difficult to swing a bat. In addition, Smith is only on a one-year contract and wasn’t playing well to begin with.

Translation: the path to regular at-bats is well within the range of outcomes for Ezequiel Duran now.

Outside of that 2023 season, Duran filled a utility role, garnering 219 to 285 plate appearances in three seasons. The ISO never got above .130 and was sub-.100 in the last two seasons. But 2023 showed that when given more consistent plate appearances, Duran could be a viable player while maintaining a high BABIP and producing some pop.

What gives me more hope for continued production this season are the changes that Duran has exhibited.

The average exit velocity is 91.5 mph. Over the last two seasons, that number was 85.3 and 87.1 mph. During the 2023 season, he was at 90.1 mph.

The bat speed is 73.3 mph, much higher than the 71.5 mph from last season.

The 28.8 feet per second is in the 91st percentile for sprint speed, so stolen bases are on the menu, and double-digit swipes seem likely.

As a righty, Ezequiel Duran is crushing right-handed pitching, posting a 155 wRC+ with a .214 ISO. The slash is .325/.538/.913, although it’s fueled by a .397 BABIP. He’s been terrible against left-handed pitching, but he’s also been unlucky with a .200 BABIP. That said, getting relegated to a short side platoon role doesn’t look to be in the cards.

For most of his career, Duran was a free-swinger, posting chase rates in the 38% range. So far this season, the chase rate is only 31.8%. For the first three seasons of his MLB career, Duran swung at over 70% of pitches in the strike zone. This season? 61%. The contact rate in the zone is at 89.1%, a career-high. Over the last two seasons, that number was in the 86% range.

Now, not all is sunshine and unicorns, as the ground ball rate is 48% and Duran only has a pull rate of 31.2%. At least the launch angle is decent at 13.1 degrees.

It’s likely that Ezequiel Duran experiences regression, so I’d keep expectations in check. That said, it is within the range of outcomes that he plays to the higher end since he’s already proven the ability to maintain power and a high BABIP over an extended period of time. The biggest variable is playing time, and there’s a chance that Duran sees consistent playing time even when Smith returns to action. As mentioned above, Smith could be out for a while and, even when he returns, could be a shell of himself. In addition, the Rangers didn’t make a long-term commitment to him.

There’s power and speed here. In addition, he has eligibility at SS, 1B, 2B, and OF. Very nice.