One Man’s Trash: Five, Six, Pick Up Hicks

One, two, I bleed Dodger blue

Three, four, I’m a diehard, not a whore

Five, six, I will still pick up Jordan Hicks

Seven, eight, he ain’t great

Nine, ten, but he’s better than Wei-Yin Chen

Eleven, twelve, hope he doesn’t get shelved

Thirteen, fourteen, that’d be an awful scene

Fifteen, sixteen, like watching an episode of Mr. Bean

Seventeen, eighteen, my bad, that was mean

Nineteen, twenty, I shall proceed gently

I can’t believe you get this kind of content for free!! Anyways, every year I tell myself that there are plenty of pitchers to fill out my rotation, and every year I end up falling short. So, I’ve become accustomed to looking for pitchers waaaaaay down in the rankings to suffice my needs. As I was scrolling up from the depths of ADP hell, a ray of Sonshine was finally produced when Jordan Hicks illuminated the screen. Yes, he’s a San Francisco Giant, but this is fantasy baseball. Let’s dig in.

Hicks is 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, and throws from the right side. He’s 28 years old and has been in the majors since 2018, mostly as a reliever.

The walk rate has always been high but he averaged triple-digits for both the fastball and the splitter, which he threw around 60% of the time.

Last season, the Giants signed him to a four-year, $44 million contract and intended to stretch him out as a starter for the first time in his career. Hicks threw 77.2 innings during his rookie season, then was in the 60-inning range for the 2022 and 2023 campaigns.

The 2024 season began well, as Hicks threw 58 innings and compiled a 4-1 record over 11 starts. The ERA was 2.33, the walk rate was under 3 and the HR/9 was 0.62. He struck out at least five batters in six of those starts, which included games with 8 and 9 strikeouts.

Not all was sunshine and unicorns, though, as the K/9 was only 7.45 and the 3.6 FIP was much higher than that 2.33 ERA.

Things completely fell apart after that. Over the next nine starts, Hicks went 0-6 and was eventually moved to the bullpen. The ERA was 6.1, the walk rate was 4.88 and the HR/9 was 1.39. The strikeout rate did go up to 8.36, but that’s probably due to moving back to the pen. The FIP was lower at 5.24.

So, why do I like Hicks this season?

For starters, he bulked up 15 pounds to endure the rigors of starting. He definitely wore down after the initial foray last season. Physically, Hicks should be in a better position. Last season, he finished with 109.2 innings, an increase of 44 innings from the prior season. Steamer currently has him projected for 139 innings, which seems fair, but I think there’s upside for a tick more.

Mentally, Hicks should be in a better place. He had spent most of his career in St. Louis and then was traded to Toronto. It was the first time in San Francisco for Hicks last season AND he was asked to perform in a completely different role.

The defense should be improved in San Francisco, primarily due to the acquisition of Willy Adames, who has been considered one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. Mike Petriello of MLB.com did point out that Adames wasn’t great defensively last season, but he still sees the Giants with an 18 run improvement. That’s important because Hicks is primarily a ground ball pitcher, never having a ground ball rate below 50% in any season.

Finally, the cost of acquisition. Hicks is free! In NFBC drafts over the last two weeks, he’s currently the 449th player being selected. Sure, there’s always the chance he falters like last season and ends up in the bullpen, but I consider that a low probability event.

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