Welcome to a new thing we’re trying out. New is always good, even when it’s merely mediocre. Much like my new diet. The format here is a discussion between myself and two industry friends about a couple of players in an ADP range. We’re diving into ADP 1-25, based on the NFBC board. Brian Entrekin (KC Bubba) and Razzballs own Brandon Myers (BDon) joined me this week.
I asked Bubba to choice a player for BDon to tag as over or under rated. He selected Vlad Guerrero, Jr. I like the selection as someone that’s been creating opposing camps for some time now. This is what BDon had to say about Vladito.
Overrated. Vladito’s case to be the 6th player off the board is based on average, runs, RBI, and 40+ homeruns. Batting average is fickle and while I believe he’s a .300+ hitter, a drop to .280 is feasible with just a slight change in batted ball luck. Runs and RBI are less inconsistent than batting average, but still fairly random and he essentially needs to finish top 5 at both. Regarding his HR total, we have no idea what ball we’re using, but hitting 40+ homeruns in consecutive seasons isn’t a simple task. Since 2003, only 17 player have gone 40+ dingers in consecutive seasons. Last, we know he’s not giving us any stolen bases to potentially buoy some of the other numbers for overall value.
Solid points there. Although something in him reminds me of young Miggy Cabrera and how he was able to perennially sustain top 3 status even without speed. I asked Bubba to agree or disagree. Bubba said he’s a Vlad fan but agreed with the case BDon made. Now it was BDon’s turn to throw out a name and he chose Starling Marte. Bubba breaks him down like this.
Overrated. He blew the roof off in steals last year which everyone is reaching for. He doesn’t contribute much in home runs or RBI. Marte will be playing for a new team in the Mets, more importantly for a manager in Buck Showalter who has not ran much in the past. I will pass on Marte who should have some regression coming that makes him worthy of a late 3rd round/early 4th round pick.
Bubba had me convinced at *new Met* but he makes a solid case all around. He’s the victor of our friendly skirmish. As such, he gets to leave us with his parting thoughts on the range.
After the front part of the first round your stolen base studs quickly deteriorate. You must decide between some solid outfielders & first basemen or go with an ace. You want to be in the front half of the first round for your five category studs.
Same as it ever was. The things we do for love (of speed). Thanks to Brandon and Brian for being the Guinea Pigs. We’ll be back with fresh faces for ADP 26-50.
