Spring training lies to you. It always has. Batting averages spike, ERAs balloon, and every backfield breakout starts to feel like a prophecy. But every March also leaves breadcrumbs, real ones if you know where to look. Approach, bat speed, physicality, how a player carries himself against arms a level above where he’s lived. That stuff travels. This year, three rookie shortstops are on everybody’s minds and just how much they will be able to force the conversation. Konnor Griffin, Kevin McGonigle, and JJ Wetherholt didn’t treat camp like a tryout. They treated it like a preview, so let’s see what we can expect from this trio in 2026.
Konnor Griffin: The Physics Problem
There are prospects, and then there are problems for the sport to solve. Griffin looks like the latter. He came out of the gate strong with an early two homer game and managed to add another pair later in the spring. However, still just 19 years old, he managed an unlucky .184 batting average hampered by a .130 BABIP. The strikeout rate was about 26%, and the walk rate hovered around 5%. He didn’t manage any steals in the spring, but we already know that he has wheels with 65 steals in the minors last season, thanks to his 98th percentile sprint speed. From a spring statcast perspective, he managed a 50% hard hit rate, but the exit velocity was a little lower than we want to see at 89.6 mph. Statcast data captures about two thirds of spring training at bats, so we are working with partial data. Now, looking beyond the numbers, the first thing that jumps out is the long body, explosive, already built like something that belongs in the middle of a big-league lineup. But it’s the bat speed that should excite (not available in spring training data) as it is violent without being reckless. The talent is obvious, even if the Grapefruit League stats were not as impressive as the Pirates may have hoped.
Spring training takeaway? He didn’t look overmatched. Velocity didn’t bully him. Spin didn’t expose him. There were swing-and-miss pockets, and there should be, but the swing decisions tightened as he made adjustments.
What to expect in 2026:
Griffin is the kind of talent that forces timelines to move when he shows his talent. He will start the season at AAA, but we should not expect that to last much past the May/June timeline. The organization will say the right things about development, but if he hits early, the timeline shortens. Expect some volatility as he will be only 20 years old this season. If you picked up Griffin in drafts, you’re drafting impact, not safety. If he gets 400+ plate appearances, you’re looking at a player who can matter in all five categories by the second half. Place him on a .250, 15 homer, 35 steal target with a mid-May debut.
Kevin McGonigle: The Metronome
If Griffin is chaos harnessed, McGonigle is control. Everything is on time. Everything is repeatable. It’s the kind of swing that doesn’t need to be loud to be effective because it never beats itself. The barrel lives in the zone forever. He spoils tough pitches, doesn’t chase much, and consistently puts himself in hitter’s counts. There’s a calm to his at-bats that stands out in a camp full of players trying to impress. He showed gap authority and emerging pull-side juice. He went 6 for 13 in February before slowing down in March with a 4 for 27 clip. However, he walked 22% of the time while only striking out 16%. He had 91.3 mph average exit velocity with five extra base hits. He also pitched in a pair of stolen bases, which is ultimately not going to be the calling card of the 21 year old.
What to expect in 2026:
McGonigle feels like a fast mover because the hit tool travels. He’s the type of player who can skip steps simply by not giving away at-bats. The power will likely arrive in layers rather than all at once, but the foundation is so stable that the floor comes up quickly. This is batting average glue with on-base skills. Early on, we are not chasing 30 homers but banking on ratios and run production as he climbs. In deeper formats, that matters more than people realize. For the 2026 season, the Tigers have not made an announcement, but I expect they will look to get extra service time by sending McGonigle to the minors for a few weeks before he comes up for good. I am putting him down for a .272 average, with a .340 OBP and 20 homers this season.
JJ Wetherholt: The Accelerator
Some players arrive with polish. Others arrive with pace. Wetherholt brings both. He hit well this spring. A .226 batting average may undersell the impressive spring, but the 20% walk rate and 17% strikeout rate tell you how comfortable he has been at the plate. Of all three of these players, JJ had the highest exit velocity (91.8 mph) with a 56% hard hit rate. He controlled at-bats against a wide mix of arms, showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields, and, maybe most importantly, looked comfortable being uncomfortable. Two strikes didn’t change his posture. Runners on didn’t speed him up. That’s big-league wiring. There’s a compactness to the swing that allows for late decisions, and he pairs it with enough strength to punish mistakes. We saw him turn on velocity inside one at-bat and then stay back on a breaking ball the next. That kind of adjustability plays immediately and is what makes him such an exciting fantasy prospect.
What to expect in 2026:
Wetherholt has a real chance to be one of the first from this group to stick once he’s up. As of this writing, the Cardinals have not announced his starting spot for the season, but I fully believe it will be at the big league level. The hit tool is advanced, the approach is mature, and the defensive versatility only helps his path to playing time, where he should break in at second base. There’s a little bit of everything here. Average, runs, some pop, some speed. It may not come in one overwhelming category, but the accumulation can be sneaky valuable. Think across-the-board contributor who becomes more than the sum of his parts. For 2026, he has a chance to post a 20/20 season. I am going to project a .275 average with 16 homers and 18 steals in 2026.
The Summary
Three different profiles. One shared outcome as they all looked like they will be big time contributors in 2026. Spring training isn’t about the box score. It’s about whether the game speeds you up or you slow it down. Griffin bent it with athleticism. McGonigle controlled it with timing. Wetherholt navigated it with feel. The league will challenge any rookie. It always does. Now we get to see how quickly they adjust back. That’s where prospects turn into players and where the excitement lies ahead.
Helpful analysis. There goes my FAAB budget.
Also, Charlie Condon is ready for his profile.
Can’t take that FAAB budget with you so spend it! I never want to end the season with budget remaining.
Will add Condon to the list. He is a fun one for sure in that thin Colorado air.
How about Sal Stewart?
He is going to be a sneaky value. Not getting enough attention in my opinion and hitting in that ballpark and lineup could be really valuable. Not certain where he ends up playing but I expect he will absolutely play.