Some hitters just seem to get better with age as does a fine wine. More appropriately, some hitters age like Nelson Cruz while others age like Jason Kipnis. Often these ageless wonders can be the key to a fantasy championship due to the undervaluation they receive. The problem is, for every veteran who seems to keep on hitting, there is a game of chicken with Father Time that will eventually end. This week in our hitter profiles we play a game of buy or sell for 2024 to see who we can rely upon for one more good year. Time to pull out the walker and dig in!
Justin Turner
Long time Los Angeles Dodgers stalwart, Justin Turner is enjoying his first season in Boston. Turner signed a 1-year deal with the Red Sox including a player option for 2024 last offseason. The Red Sox cannot be happier with the return as Turner has had a fantastic season as we wind down in 2023. This season, he has hit .283 with 22 homers, 82 runs and 92 RBI. That is quality and arguably his best performance since 2018 which was shortened by injury. The standard luck metrics do not jump off the page, but the 31.5% hard hit rate is a bit concerning being his lowest rate in over 10 years. That begs the question of why he is having one of his best power seasons of his career. Well, the answer is a clear change in approach adjustment combined with the ballpark that he calls home. Let’s look at his spray charts the last few years:
2021:
2022:
2023:
Combine an increase in his pull rates with more patience at the plate waiting for his pitch and Turner is making the most of his situation. He has basically stopped hitting anything with power to the opposite field and taking full advantage of the green monster. We have to recognize that Turner is more of a .270 hitter with 25 homer power than his .300+ hitting days of a few years ago. Assuming he remains in Boston, his 39-year-old season is setting up to be plenty valuable even when fantasy owners shy away solely based on age.
Verdict: Buy
Brandon Belt
After leaving San Fransisco for a one-year deal in Canada, Belt has delivered a surprisingly success fantasy campaign after a lost year in 2022. In 96 games this year, he has hit .252 with 16 long balls and 50 runs. His 38 RBI have been slightly disappointing while hitting generally out of the third position in the lineup. Overall, he has delivered 2.0 WAR and a 134 wRC+. Unfortunately, there is not much to like beyond those numbers. Our first warning sign is a nearly 35% strikeout rate which would rank worst among all qualified hitters. This strikeout proclivity appears to be driven by a desire to walk more as Belt has swung much less this year than in the past. That strikeout rate combined with a .374 BABIP shows us that his .210 xBA is right on point. Case in point, things have just fallen his way this year:
Verdict: Sell
Tommy Pham
Despite playing on two teams in 2023 and being rumored to be nearly acquired again at the deadline, Tommy Pham has had his most valuable fantasy season since 2019. Now in his 35-year-old season, Pham has put up a respectable .262 average with 15 homers and 17 steals good for a 117 wRC+. Looking at his metrics, it appears to be much of the same for Pham as in year’s past where it all comes down to his opportunity to play. With both the Mets and the Diamondbacks, Pham has had consistent playing time and the quality of hitting has responded as seen in his Savant profile
If we dig a bit deeper, he has made a few minor tweaks to his approach. First off, his contact percentage in the zone has jumped from league average up nearly four points in 2023. In addition, he has posted a top 10% xBA at .292. Pham has shown a resurgence this year with a better plate approach and consistent playing time. He will be a free agent this off-season and we have to assume he will command a full-time gig again in 2024 leaving value to be found.
Verdict: Buy
