Welcome back to another season of fantasy baseball prep—because what else would you be doing in January? The 2025 season is shaping up to be a fascinating year. The kids are officially running the show, with Elly De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson, and Bobby Witt Jr. staking their claim as first-round mainstays. Meanwhile, the Athletics and Rays are moving to new digs and interim stadiums. How will that affect player values? Only time will tell. As the offseason begins, we’re kicking things off by diving into some of my favorite breakout players for the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For our purposes, a breakout player is defined as someone being drafted outside the top five rounds who has the upside to deliver significantly more value by season’s end. With that loose definition in mind, we’re bound to have some fun. Welcome to the first edition of Hitter Profiles for the 2025 Fantasy Baseball Season!
Kerry Carpenter (ADP 185)
Kerry Carpenter has been sitting at an ADP of 185 as the 47th outfielder off the board. He is sandwiched between Taylor Ward and Victor Robles. Carpenter quietly put together a solid 2024 season despite being shortened by injury. In 87 games last season, he belted 18 homers while hitting .284. Extrapolate that power output across a full season, and you’re looking at a 30-homer bat. Even more intriguing? Carpenter posted an 18% barrel rate, a metric that puts him in elite company. Among qualified hitters, that would have trailed only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton, and Juan Soto. That’s not too bad of company for a 16th rounder with the kind of power that will play anywhere.
While Detroit’s offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut, Carpenter should be batting fourth driving solid RBI opportunities to pair with a good average and the aforementioned power. For a guy with his skill set, that’s a recipe for fantasy success. Of course, no breakout candidate is without flaws, and Carpenter’s is painfully obvious. His wRC+ against lefties last season was 18. The Tigers will platoon him, meaning he is more valuable in daily leagues. There is still a lot to like, and with this price tag you should be buying all day.
Michael Toglia (ADP 178)
I wrote about this guy late last season as we searched for the next Brent Rooker, but he deserves more attention. Michael Toglia had a strong 2024 campaign with 25 long balls, 52 RBI, and a disappointing .219 average. Toglia also managed to tack on eight steals on the season with league-average speed. Toglia showed steady growth as a hitter as some of his metrics improved as the season progressed including his walk rate nearly doubling from the first to the second half and a six-point jump in his line drive rate. Toglia’s underlying metrics highlight a lot of potential. He was certainly unlucky and should be closer to a .250 hitter than the .219 he delivered. Additionally, he’s in the top 10% of the league in nearly every power category, seeing a significant improvement in his ability to barrel the ball. The strikeouts continue to be a challenge, as his pitch selection remains merely league-average. If he can see any improvement in the plate approach, he will be incredibly dangerous. The good news for Toglia is that this is the key issue in his profile, and it can improve with experience. Just enjoy watching what he can do in that thin Colorado air:
https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1804962873505948030
Jordan Westburg (ADP 87)
We are going a bit further up the draft table for this next breakout hitter in Jordan Westburg. Going as the fifth or sixth player at both the second and third base positions, Westburg is poised to join the upper echelon of hitters. Let’s start by looking at the underlying Statcast measures. He is top 10% of the league in expected batting average, expected slugging and sprint speed. The batted ball profile compares similarly to guys like Manny Machado or Rafael Devers. Those are ingredients for production across all five rotisserie categories.
Looking at 2024 across 107 games, Westburg slugged 18 homers, 63 RBI, 57 runs while sneaking in six steals, and a respectable .264 average. If anything, he suffered a little tough luck during the season and showed very little platoon risk. All these things add up to a very promising season in a strong Baltimore lineup where he should hit in the middle third. I am projecting 25 homers, 90 RBI, 85 runs, 10 steals, and a .280 average. That is a steal at the current ADP, sign me up!
Tommy Edman (ADP 178)
Is it unfair to include a Dodger in a list of breakout hitters? Maybe, but when a player like Tommy Edman is going off the board in the 15th round, fairness isn’t the point—finding value is. Edman is being drafted alongside names like Ceddanne Rafaela and Lane Thomas, yet his upside is significantly higher. As of now, Edman is penciled in as the Dodgers’ starting center fielder and will likely bat at the bottom of one of the league’s best lineups. While hitting near the bottom of a lineup may seem less appealing, the reality is it positions Edman perfectly to be on base for the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. That alone makes him a sneaky source of runs, and if he stays healthy, he has the potential to score over 100 in 2025.
Speed is another huge part of Edman’s appeal. Even in a league trending toward more stolen bases, his sprint speed still ranked in the 85th percentile or better during the 2022 and 2023 seasons. This gives him consistent 25+ stolen base upside, and the Dodgers’ top 10 base-running tendencies only add fuel to the fire. Combine that with his steady bat and solid track record, and you’re looking at a player who can quietly fill up your stat sheet. Projections aren’t giving Edman the credit he deserves, but the numbers speak for themselves. If he stays healthy, you can count on a .265 average, 15 homers, 25 steals, and a boatload of counting stats in runs and RBIs. At his current ADP, Edman is the kind of player who can significantly outproduce his draft cost. Plus, we all know he can deliver in the clutch.
https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1850337798215086494
