Loyal (or at least frequent) readers of this site know that Grey LOVES to rub it in my face whenever he is right about a player and I am wrong.  I think he has an archive of every conversation we ever had for that expressed purpose.  It’s like he is keeping an NSA dossier on me and the S stands for Spite.

In the spirit of transparency – and maybe actual learning – I stitched together our 12-team mixed $ values for 2014 so there is a complete comparison out there for you to see.  I am only including players where one of us gave the player a $0+ value as once you agree a guy is undraftable, there is no reason for further debate.

Some other notes:

  • Through the preseason, Grey and I update our rankings nearly every day – usually driven by expected changes in playing time.  This table will change as we update our $ values.
  • Here are some general findings on our differences:
    • Grey prices star players outside Cabrera/Trout higher than I do.  We both agree that Goldschmidt is the 3rd ranked player (CORRECTION:  I actually have him 4th) but I price that at $31 vs. his $41.  My values show Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout so far ahead in projected value that I would go over $40 for them and would barely crack $30 for anyone else.  If Cabrera, Trout, and Goldschmidt went at Grey’s prices in a 12-team auction, I think the Cabrera/Trout teams are way ahead (~$10) in team value.
    • Grey has a hatred for MIs without plus power or speed.  He always has low values for the Daniel Murphy/Martin Prado type.  Not surprising that several of the guys where I am much higher than Grey fall in that camp.
    • Grey will price guys with unsure playing time at $1-$2 if he sees upside potential (think Dee Gordon) where my values are based solely on projected stats/playing time.  In 12-team mixed leagues, I consider positions like 5th SP, 5th OF, MI, and UTIL to be ‘streaming’ positions and would have no problem taking ‘upside’ bets for those positions.
    • Grey has a hit/pitch ratio of 68.5/31.5 where mine is 67/33.  So his hitter values are slightly higher than mine.  For pitching, our total $ for SP is similar but my reliever $ dwarf his (the equivalent of $26/team vs. $15/team).  This reflects our differing opinions on RP (I value them higher given their contributions to ERA/WHIP/K while Grey is SAGNOF).  I think Grey’s position makes more sense if you are fantastic at getting guys off the FA wire before anyone else.  My thinking is there are maybe 1-2 people per league who will always be quickest and I have no faith I will be one of them.
    • At the position level, I put more $ towards catching (4.4% of $ vs. 2.6%) as Grey prices to ‘punt’ where I price based on projected value (but would only draft if a catcher came at a nice discount) and Grey is more bullish on 1B/3B (21% of $ vs. 17%).  He is only 1-3% higher than me on 2B/SS and OF.
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  1. mrrr says:
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    @Rudy I think my rankings were pretty similar to yours based on our NFBC draft – there were a lot of players that you sniped me on. I’m hoping you are wrong on Sonny Gray since I own him for cheap in my AL-only keeper league.

    • yeah, you sniped me on Jason Castro as my C1 and Derek Norris as a strong C3 (after i picked AJ Ellis as a weak C2).

      • mrrr says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Griffin, Mous, Lake, and Hudson were all guys we were targeting when you took them. Hudson especially. Hard to sit there for 28 picks knowing you’re picking right in front us.

        Hoping Chapman comes back quickly – that’s a big loss in that format and Hoover went before we could back him up.

        • I saved you on Griffin. Like-minded thinking on the other three. I skipped Hudson as my SP6 to take Archie Bradley in the hopes that he would make it 28 more picks given his low ADP. Was lucky you were behind me!

          Yeah, that’s rough on Chapman. You slept a little long on Hoover as he got picked in the 37th round after I drafted AJ Ramos and Daniel Webb. Damn, right position. Why couldn’t Salvador Perez hit Cishek or Nate Jones in the face instead? I was able to back up K-Rob with Kelley really late but Brian Wilson went in the 30th round – way earlier than I wanted him for backing up Jansen.

          • mrrr says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: yep, can’t complain on missing Griffin. Hudson was the big one – with Darvish early was hoping to target some good ratio / low k guys later.

            After Clippard went early we backed off a bit on making sure our closers were backed up and tried to fill holes in MI and build up some SP options.

            I liked the Kelley pick, was eying him around then though I suspect if K-rob doesn’t work out the Yankees might look for a proven closer in trade like they did with Soriano a couple of years ago. Brian Wilson went a couple of rounds before we had targeted him as well.

            • yeah, i like Hudson because he’s reliable on WHIP, has a solid middle infield for fielding ground balls, and has a great home park.

              agreed on Kelley. if K-Rob goes down, hard to see them trusting Kelley. it’s actually one of K-Rob’s selling points this year – inexpensive to no handcuff. i’ve noted handcuff cost as a reason to steer clear of John Axford (Allen) and Huston Street (Benoit).

              • mrrr says:
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                @Rudy Gamble: were you specifically targeting a prospect when you took Bradley? We bumped up Gausman a bit at that point since they started to go and was looking for some ace-like upside.

                • Yes. It was like the 21st round and I had 28 picks until #22. Felt prospecting was nigh and had to grab Bradley or Baez there jf I wanted them.

      • mrrr says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Looked at ADP the other day – Darvish still hasn’t gone later than he did in our draft. Given his slide and the Razzball makeup we had to zag a bit (Darvish in the 2nd, investing higher in catchers, etc.).

  2. Principle Blackman says:
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    The Met’s Scott Rice just threw a 116 MPH fastball according to the stadium gun at Tradition Field. Minor league guns aren’t hot at all.

  3. Scott Rice says:
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    Sounds about right.

  4. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    Where’s Allen/Charles Char? I can’t seem to find him on the list.

    • Grey and I are not fans of Charles Char and refuse to put him ahead of Cole and Gray.

  5. Jeff P says:
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    In the article you say that you have Goldschmidt as your 3rd player, but if you sort the list, you have McCutcheon higher.

    • you’re right – corrected the post.

  6. Joe G says:
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    Rudy would you trade David wright Nelson cruz and tony cingrani for Carlos González ?

  7. bossmanjunior says:
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    @ Kenny Chesney

    Since you seem to like Heyward more than Myers, could you explain the difference in value between the two? Do you forsee Heyward hitting leadoff to negatively affect his value?Lastly, if you were aalready targeting two speedy leadoff hitter types like Segura and Marte, would you be more inclined to choose a more even distribution of R/RBI in Myers?Thanks!

    • Well, my calculations have Heyward ahead but I’m not drafting Heyward anywhere. I did get Myers in one of my 4 drafts (KFFL). Would have drafted him in LABR as well but I didn’t have a pitcher in the first 4 rounds and decided to go elite closer instead (Jansen).

      Their projections are comparable and assume they hit in similar places in lineup as last year:

      Heyward 145 G / 660 PA / 570 AB / 87 / 26 / 80 / 12 / .266
      Myers 154 / 640 / 76 / 23 / 81 / 9 / .257

      I think Heyward’s RBI feel a little bullish and I think Myers HR are bearish (i like him for ~30).

      The biggest correction on Myers vs. last year is that he got lucky from a BABIP standpoint. Given his K-rate, expecting AVG regression for him.

      • bossmanjunior says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        Well Myers has posted high babips at every level and while minor league babips tend to be higher due to a lesser quality of defense and reduced rate of shifts, he also hits the ball harder than most major leaguers, regularly spanking the ball over 100 mph. He also uses the whole field and has plus opposite field power, so I think there is a decent chance for him to sustain a higher than average babip. I still expect his average to regress a little, maybe down around.275-.280.

        So gun to your head (don’t worry its a NERF gun), who you pickin?

  8. Mike says:
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    How hard is it to keep your hitters under 180 games played.

    • Not sure i understand the question.

      • Mike says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: I am in a 180 game limit for hitters and 1700 inning limit for pitching.

        • Mike says:
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          @@Mike: 6 bench players I want to use 2 bench players for SP making 7 starters that should keep me under 1700 innings but using 4 bench players for hitting will that put me over the 180 game limit for each position.

          • It is quite hard to get 180 Games at a position. The site should show your pace if you are ahead of pace.

            1700 IP is hard to hit too. I would sit SPs in bad matchups.

  9. Smitty says:
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    Off topic but some uber schlep just dropped Cingrani in my 14-team league (28 roster positions to boot). 6×6 traditional with holds as the extra pitching category. Waivers are FAAB ($100 budget) and I’m obviously going after him hard…what do you think I should bid? Was thinking $30 should be good then I started thinking all Price Is Right and upped to $31. Am I good there?

    P.S. It’s a $200 public league where I don’t know anyone. The guy dropped Cingrani for K-Rod (!!??)…call him out on the message board come to find out he thinks Cingrani is a closer and that he’ll lose his job bc of a bad spring training. Someone else actually defended it saying “Holds=Saves”….so that’s what type of pple we’re dealing with. Needless to say I immediately threw out a $1000 sidebet on season W/L which was accepted…cha-ching.

    • That sounds right. I would even consider more since you can still pick up free agents for free, right?

      • Smitty says:
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        Yup FAAB dollar for waivers only. I originally had $36 so maybe I’ll up it back to there.

    • costaricanchata says:
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      @Smitty:

      you’re expecting to collect on a $1000 side-bet in a
      “… public league where I don’t know anyone. ” ??

  10. mindicohn says:
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    CBS v Yahoo?

    We just moved our baseball league from ESPN to CBS bc we wanted Minors slots…So far so good.

    Had our auction on Tuesday — not so good, CBS auction room very buggy…Nonetheless, that’s behind us.

    We had our first FAAB run on Wednesday and noticed a major problem that CBS allows, but ESPN doesnt…If a guy had 3 claims in with no drops (filling in to vacated slots due to DL/Minors) he should only be allowed to get the 2 so he has a legal roster…However, CBS allows for the team to grab the 3 exceeding the roster limits…That’s BS and a huge problem…

    So, now we’re trying to figure out our options…Someone suggested Yahoo…You guys love Yahoo right? Someone give me the quick sales pitch and possibly adddress the issue(s) above…

    Thanks

    • I don’t love any site but like them all. CBS often rated best. Grey uses CBS more than me – he is the best person to ask about it.

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @mindicohn: I like espn and yahoo. Neither is perfect, but I never had any major problems with either. If you want to have managers own minor leaguers, you would have to keep a thread open with that info in it .

  11. Joe G says:
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    Rudy who you like moré Robinson cano or Carlos González

  12. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    Auction talk?

    This is a good place to mention I just created a free h2h league at espn with an auction.

    Time: 2 pm eastern
    Date: Sunday, March 23

    If interested, write your e-mail address and I will send you an invite.

    The league password is tacocat and the league name is Baseball Action 2014, but I do not have a link handy.

    • Robdouth says:
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      @Wallpaper Paterson: I love a good auction draft. I wish I was in town that day. Dangit

  13. Lord Baldrick says:
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    After Fiasco de Zack at Fangraphs, I had a thought prior to my $draft last weekend. I downloaded your sheet and Grey’s top 400, stripped out negative values less than -5, and resorted averaging Grey’s values in two columns and yours in one column (GGR).

    I liked the effect, much as described in your last paragraph. Grey’s more ‘adventuresome’ tendencies were functionally smoothed a bit by your wise counsel.

  14. Bobby Nice says:
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    Rudy, off topic, but I find at the 7th pick I could end up with Fielder, Choo, and Andrus pretty reasonably. What’s your take on that many high picks from the same team? Probably 3 out of 5 or 6. Should I be worried in doing that? I mean every time they face a 1 SP I risk going 1-4 or 0’fer with all of them. Or do I bank that they’ll score so much it won’t be a problem and just trust my rankings? I’m a bit worried to actually pull the trigger on all of them together.

    • I wouldn’t worry too much about drafting multiple players from the same team. But in daily leagues, it gets frustrating on off days for that team.

  15. Ron says:
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    Please rank for 2014 only…Baez, Taveras and Springer.

    Thanks!

    • Springer, Baez, Taveras

  16. Thomas says:
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    Kershaw and Kennedy or Latos and Shelby Miller?

  17. Joe G says:
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    Rudy would you trade Robinson cano and Nelson cruz for Carlos González

    • Matters the league format. I probably consider it only for 10 team mixed

  18. SteveNZ says:
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    Gah. Just to subscribe…

  19. costaricanchata says:
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    noticed that you’re even more bullish on puig than is Grey .

    also , Grey values dozier at zero ?
    am i reading that incorrectly ??

    • Yeah, steamer love Puig. I’ve taken him twice this year with picks 22 and 28. The leadoff slot he’s in now will hurt RBI but maybe he will steal a bit more.

  20. frankiejay says:
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    Hey Rudy,

    Question for you: In a 20 team 8×8 (+2B, 3B, BB), who would you prefer as a final OF: Junior Lake, Corey Dickerson (on waivers), Drew Stubbs, Peter Bourjos, Dustin Ackley, Michael Saunders, or Lorenzo Cain.

    I should be very strong in counting stats and AVG and fairly strong in most other categories (may be weaker in BB). So I could afford to take a hit in AVG if needed.

    Also, is Kendrys Morales worth rostering in a league this deep?

    • i love corey dickerson and he’s a 3B machine (19 b/w AAA/MLB in 2013) but worried he’s not getting regular ABs. I think Cain and Lake are the two best bets for ABs and I’d lean towards Cain for now.

  21. John OB says:
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    It’s interesting to limit the list to the 77 or so names that you and Grey are within +/- $2.2.
    Then, find what ADP differences there are (expected vs actual).
    I’m sure I’ve missed some but there appears to be value in the ADPs of Puig, Segura, Rizzo, Gyorko, Hamilton, Arenado, Av.Garcia, Calhoun.

    Thanks for the comparison.

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