Rougned Odor, 2017 Fantasy Baseball

It was almost 15 years ago (somehow) when Outkast introduced us to the truth that sometimes “roses really smell like poo-poo-oo.” Ha, that silly Caroline thought she was special. Back in January, not gonna lie, I had a two weeks spurt of praying and hoping that I could break the mold, that I was special, and that I could get away with not smelling while disregarding one important component of every adult’s life.

After a wedding in Charleston for New Years Eve I came home with zero deodorant. Who in the balls steals deodorant, I don’t quite understand. But that triggered a little experiment for two weeks of wearing none. (Gasp) The horror!

Well, I actually got away with it. For a while. Then came one day at work when I had to walk about 10,000 steps…you can see where this is going. Let’s just put it this way, I didn’t raise either of my arms anywhere north of about 5 degrees from my sides. While it wasn’t doo-doo that I smelled like (because that would be quite possibly the. worst.), Ol’ Three Stacks was right in that you just can’t avoid the necessary elements and think you’re 100. For Caroline, that betch needed a little humility. For me, it was as simple as stop being a cheap bastard because the experiment failed miserably. But, oh, for Rougned Odor? The approach would catch up with him eventually. Here comes the massive drop.

Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX (96.2% owned) – I can feel the scorn of all the Grey acolytes reading this. I’m lucky enough to somehow be a part of the FantasyPros Expert Consensus rankings, and while doing a little studying back in March one person stood far above the others in his love for the smelly Texas man with a nasty right haymaker: our Grey. Now, I trust Grey’s ratings above almost everyone else’s, but with Odor we weren’t in lockstep. And then his first week happened and I felt a little silly, because our mustached macho man was looking quite nice for his top 15 ranking of Rougned (3 HR in first 4 games). But then reality set in: this dude’s streakier than Frank the Tank running around the quad (somehow also almost 15 years ago). With a BABIP south of .300 last year he hit .271 and posted 33HR with 14 SB. Incredi-belmo! When the ol’ BABIP drops under .200, though, you get a player slashing .194/9/4/13/1. His game doesn’t allow him to weather the bad storms because he never walks (4.0% this year), whereas players that walk to a double-digit rate can still provide value while getting on base when the bat goes cold. He’s a special talent with a massive ceiling, but until he turns it around there are plenty of other options I’d rather own. At only 23 years old he’s prime to turn it around and still finish with a .250/80/25/80/12 line, but if April’s a precursor for the rest of 2017 we need to pump the brakes on what we dreamed he may be. .270/90/30/90/20 just ain’t happening. This is bad Odor. You’ll have to live with it. It’s definitely not roses.

Now, I’m sure I’ll look like an idiot for this in a few days when he goes all Anthony Rendon, but then I’ll just say this was all a ploy to make my big boss man look better (insert Grey cackle here)! Still worth the 96.2% own rate? Yep. Still worth a top 25 ranking where even I had him preseason? Nope. And much of the below rankings are my subjective thoughts, so don’t agree? THAT’S WHAT THE COMMENTS ARE FOR!

Note: These rankings are considered ROS Trade Value

M@’s Top Hitters

(Rankings based on 12-team Roto. GREEN = player rising. RED = player dropping. BLUE = new to the 100.)

Rank	Name	Pos	Team
1	Mike Trout	LAA	OF
2	Bryce Harper	WSH	OF
3	Mookie Betts	BOS	OF
4	Nolan Arenado	COL	3B
5	Jose Altuve	HOU	2B
6	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B
7	Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	1B
8	Kris Bryant	CHC	3B/OF
9	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF
10	Anthony Rizzo	CHC	1B
11	Manny Machado	BAL	3B/SS
12	Trea Turner	WSH	SS/2B/OF
13	Corey Seager	LAD	SS
14	Joey Votto	CIN	1B
15	Ryan Braun	MIL	OF
16	Daniel Murphy	WSH	1B/2B
17	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B
18	Francisco Lindor	CLE	SS
19	Nelson Cruz	SEA	OF
20	Wil Myers	SD	1B/OF
21	Josh Donaldson	TOR	3B
22	Brian Dozier	MIN	2B
23	Robinson Cano	SEA	2B
24	Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	OF
25	Khris Davis	OAK	OF
26	Eric Thames	MIL	1B/OF
27	A.J. Pollock	ARI	OF
28	Edwin Encarnacion	CLE	1B
29	Carlos Correa	HOU	SS
30	Yoenis Cespedes	NYM	OF
31	Jonathan Villar	MIL	3B/SS
32	Christian Yelich	MIA	OF
33	George Springer	HOU	OF
34	Kyle Seager	SEA	3B
35	Matt Kemp	ATL	OF
36	Xander Bogaerts	BOS	SS
37	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	OF
38	Mark Trumbo	BAL	OF
39	Jose Abreu	CWS	1B
40	Chris Davis	BAL	1B
41	Adam Jones	BAL	OF
42	Buster Posey	SF	C/1B
43	Ian Kinsler	DET	2B
44	Trevor Story	COL	SS
45	J.D. Martinez	DET	OF
46	Carlos Gonzalez	COL	OF
47	Gregory Polanco	PIT	OF
48	Miguel Sano	MIN	3B/OF
49	Jake Lamb	ARI	3B
50	Jose Ramirez	CLE	3B/OF
51	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF
52	Hanley Ramirez	BOS	1B
53	Matt Carpenter	STL	1B/2B/3B
54	Justin Upton	DET	OF
55	Michael Brantley	CLE	OF
56	Ian Desmond	COL	OF
57	DJ LeMahieu	COL	2B
58	Jay Bruce	NYM	OF
59	Carlos Santana	CLE	1B
60	Andrew Benintendi	BOS	OF
61	Evan Longoria	TB	3B
62	Rougned Odor	TEX	2B
63	Marcell Ozuna	MIA	OF
64	Stephen Piscotty	STL	OF
65	Justin Turner	LAD	3B
66	Kyle Schwarber	CHC	OF
67	Aledmys Diaz	STL	SS
68	Eric Hosmer	KC	1B
69	Albert Pujols	LAA	1B
70	Lorenzo Cain	KC	OF
71	Gary Sanchez	NYY	C
72	Odubel Herrera	PHI	OF
73	Cesar Hernandez	PHI	2B
74	Adam Duvall	CIN	OF
75	Alex Bregman	HOU	3B
76	Todd Frazier	CWS	1B/3B
77	Mitch Haniger	SEA	OF
78	Eugenio Suarez	CIN	3B
79	Anthony Rendon	WSH	3B
80	David Peralta	ARI	OF
81	Ender Inciarte	ATL	OF
82	Jean Segura	SEA	2B/SS
83	Michael Conforto	NYM	OF
84	Ryan Zimmerman	WAS	1B
85	Elvis Andrus	TEX	SS
86	Jonathan Lucroy	TEX	C
87	Jackie Bradley	BOS	OF
88	Dee Gordon	MIA	2B
89	Nomar Mazara	TEX	OF
90	Billy Hamilton	CIN	OF
91	David Dahl	COL	OF
92	Yasmany Tomas	ARI	OF
93	Jason Kipnis	CLE	2B
94	Starlin Castro	NYY	2B
95	Brandon Phillips	ATL	2B
96	Jason Heyward	CHC	OF
97	Manuel Margot	SD	OF
98	Kevin Kiermaier	TB	OF
99	Corey Dickerson	TB	OF
100	Brad Miller	TB	1B/SS/2B

The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)

Rank	Name	Pos	Team
101	Mark Reynolds	COL	1B
102	Troy Tulowitzki	TOR	SS
103	Avisail Garcia	CHW	OF
104	Maikel Franco	PHI	3B
105	Jonathan Schoop	BAL	2B

Dropped from the Rankings: Adam Eaton (45), Eduardo Nunez (94)

A few notes on the 100:

Best 1B in the game? Freddie Freeman. And no, that’s not just the Braves fan coming out in me. I’m not the biggest Mark Bowman fan, but here you go:
Notably not on there? Paul Goldschmidt.
That 24-26 trio would be fun to watch mash in the Home Run Derby. Which player ends the year with more home runs? And notice, Ryan Zimmerman isn’t in that group.
Speaking of…Zimmerman leaps into the 100, but not too far up. He’s hitting a monstrous .410/19/11/27/1 to finish April. That’s stupid, and nowhere close to maintainable. Sure, he’s only 32 (feels like he’s 52) and can still mash a little, but injury concerns and regression outweigh his crazy begin to 2017 for my ROS thoughts. Tread lightly and don’t overpay.
Overall, not a ton of changes in the 100 this week at the top. Go look at your most owned players and they’re essentially all pulverizing the ball over the past two weeks with OPS’s north of 1.000 everywhere. Down at the bottom some fallers are in steep decline. Besides Odor I could have easily focused on another Razz favorite: Nomar Mazara. Muhzuhzuh!!! I feel like you should have to yell that through a conk shell for full effect. Anywho, dude’s gotta adjust. Need to see some improvements.
And lastly, let’s pour one out for Adam Eaton. That. Freaking. Sucks.

As always…don’t agree with something?

DROP THOSE COMMENTS!

Follow M@ on Twitter at @matthayes for far more than just fantasy advice.