Well, it finally happened, the long wait is over. Wait a minute, this isn’t right at all. It’s only been three years since the Dodgers signed, a then 16 year old, Julio Urias and we haven’t stopped hearing about him since. The comparisons to fellow Mexican Dodgers hurler, Fernando Valenzuela, might be getting a bit ahead of ourselves. Will there be Juliomania? Perhaps, but there will also be innings limits, pitch counts and who knows what else. What we do know is that at $7,600, Julio is going to be an extremely popular option on DraftKings tomorrow night. There’s a strange phenomenon that people enjoy picking players based on games they plan on watching. During the football season you’ll find slight ownership bumps from SNF and MNF players for this very reason. It makes sense, people want to see their players perform. I imagine there will be many eyeballs on the Dodgers @ Mets game tonight and a heavy dose of Urias as a result. Knowing this will be the case, the prudent move would be to fade Urias all together. The Mets are favored with deGrom taking the hill at home after all. Can you really resist the temptation to have a piece of what might be a magical debut? It’s OK, I probably can’t either, I’ve got at least have small share of the 19 year old lefty. Let’s see who else there is to choose from tonight:
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Felix Hernandez, SP: $11,900 – Felix gets the nod as my top cash game pitcher of the night. The King is at home, against a punchless Twins squad and facing Pat Dean. The Mariners are the night’s biggest favorite at -220 and the game only has a 7.5 over/under. A big favorite at home with a low over/under is a recipe for cash game safety.
Robbie Ray, SP: $8,700 – On the other side of the DFS landscape, Ray just might be my top tournament pitching option. I love Ray’s strikeout potential (10 K/9) and tonight, he gets the K-happy Padres. Ray can get himself into trouble and he’s pitching basically exactly like he should (a 4.19 FIP vs. 4.18 ERA). When it comes to DFS points however, those Ks are boss and can cover up some mistakes. Robbie Ray will be getting a call from Vince Velasquez post game, count on it.
Adam Conley, SP: $7,500 – While everyone is focused on Urias in this same price range, Conley makes for a very nice pivot. This lefty gets the hopeless Atlanta Braves who own the league’s worst OPS vs. southpaws and have racked up the most strikeouts in the league vs. lefties. Add to that that the Braves have hit half the amount of HRs as the next closest team and Conley is looking mighty nice tonight.
Tony Wolters, C: $3,100 – We’re finally back to Coors field. What a brutal road trip that was for the Coors crew. Hopefully, they haven’t forgotten how to pound the balls home in that time span. Wolters is cheap and has Coors upside, enough said.
Mark Reynolds, 1B: $3,800 – I’ve mentioned many a time my affinity for cheap Coors exposure. Reynolds is one of the few players in this price range with 2-3 HR game potential.
C.J. Cron, 1B: $3,100 – Obviously, guys like, Posey, Miggy and Goldy are your top plays of the night, but if you love the rest of your roster and only have about $3,000 to spend, all hope is not lost. In a case of extremely small sample sizes, C.J has taken Mike Fiers deep twice in 6 ABs. Do I hear 3 in 10 after tonight? Nope, just the sound of Cron’s potential zooming by.
Jurickson Profar, 2B/SS: $3,300 – Odor starts his 7 game suspension tonight and that means Profar will be on the way from Round Rock. The switch hitting middle infielder has hit lefties better in general through the minor leagues and Jon Niese is not a great lefty. It’s a very solid price for some middle infield upside.
Jung Ho Kang, 3B: $3,100 – Kang is my Korean man crush. DraftKings doesn’t seem to share the same feelings as me and has chronically underpriced him so far this year. He was batting clean-up yesterday for crying in the clouds. Rostering a $3,100 clean-up hitter should result in you needing to hit submit while wearing a ski mask.
Jonathan Villar, SS: $3,700 – Tonight seems like a great night to pay up at the SS position. We’ve likely saved enough with some of our cheap pitchers and cheap plays above that we could pay for Story/Crawford or Manny Machado. If we want to spend down a bit at SS, Villar would be my choice. Here we thought Villar was only good for steals and he chipped in a HR yesterday. While that might not be the norm, there’s plenty of potential for the Brewers leadoff man in a game featuring a 9 run over/under.
Jarrett Parker, OF: $4,100 – Parker doesn’t come in quite as cheap as I’d like for his time at Coors. With Pence and Belt both day to say I’d have to say there’s a very good chance Parker plays. Jarrett has power to spare, which plays great at Coors field. If he’s not in the lineup, pivot to fellow Coors buddy, Gerardo Parra at the same price.
Starling Marte, OF: $3,900 – At this price, Marte might be the value of the night. I wouldn’t say I’m necessarily targeting Cole Hamels, but I’m not afraid of him either. The 9 over/under is mostly due to Jon Niese on the other side, but Hamels isn’t impervious to a blow up as well.
Mark Trumbo, OF: $3,800 – Speaking of blowing up, that’s what Mark Trumbo does best. Trevor Bauer as a propensity for giving up the long ball and Mark Trumbo has a propensity for launching long balls out of the park. That’s a great combination for us as DFSers.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
This could really end up being a zero-fun night of watching radars and trying to guess which umpire crew can read a doppler. There is rain all potential all over the place, so keep an eye to the sky and an ear to the Twitter tonight. The following games have potential weather issues: LAD@NYM – Urias could have his parade rained on, BAL@CLE, PIT@TEX, CWS@KC, as well as the one game in the afternoon, PHI@CHC. It could be a wet one, grab your galoshes!
Doing Lines In Vegas
King Felix and the Mariners are the night’s biggest favorite at -220. The highest over/under, per usual, is Coors field where the Giants pay a visit and are greeted by a 10.5 over/under. The highest non-Coors over/under is 9 runs and there are several games that feature this total. These games, in no particular order are CIN@MIL, SD@ARI, BOS@TOR, CLE@BAL, and PIT@TEX. The lowest run total of the night is 7 and also has several games to include this total. NYY@TB (Tanaka vs. Archer, LAD@NYM (Urias vs. deGrom) and STL@WAS (Garcia vs. Scherzer) all earn that low total.
