As the old adage goes, ‘Spare the rod, spoil the child’. Hrm, I was going to make a reference to ‘caning’ and ‘Singapore’ here but it seems I’ve fumbled it worse than Mark Sanchez did with his slide into the backside of Moore. Yes, that was a football reference. Deal with it. You’re reading the works of none other than the main editor/writer for Razzball fantasy football, so some pigskin is gonna leak over no matter what I do. But more to the point, I’ve been bringing the Discount Double Check series to you this pre-season in the hopes we can find some potential sleepers for 2013 fantasy baseball, and what better way to do that than to revisit a former Grey love in Lorenzo Cain. Grey really wouldn’t leave this man alone in 2012. At some point I’m sure he got addicted to Cain…SUGAR! The fact he didn’t land on Celebrity Rehab with Dr. Drew is a bit surprising as he was snorting lines of confectionery by late March. At least that’s what he told me when I asked about the white powder caking his nose. But back to the point, we’re here today to look at Lorenzo and see if his current ADP of 223 is warranted or if he’s going at a discount for 2013 fantasy baseball…
Let’s get some things out of the way: Cain is able. You see that? The reference is done and we didn’t have to make any stretching biblical quotes. It’s also just a true statement so let’s move on. After all the pre-season love, Cain gave his owners an end line of 7 HRs, 31 RBIs, 27 runs and 10 steals to go with a .266 average in 222 at-bats. Unfortch, a solid fantasy season for Cain was impeded by the injury bug. So it goes without saying a full year really is Lorenzo’s Oil. Ohhh, I myself shuddered at that one. But honestly, you take his 2012 line and prorate it over 450 AB, you get a solid HR/SB total (14/20). Given he was moved all around the lineup last year – his highest total of ABs came in the lead off role with 66 – averaging out his runs or RBIs would be a tad dishonest. He’s a 70 or 80 RBI or run guy depending where he sticks in the lineup. Unlike my Carlos Gomez fantasy review, what’s intriguing about Cain is he can hit for average. In over 2000 minor league at-bats leading up to his debut with the Brewers in 2010, Cain maintained a career .285 average to go with all the power/speed combo he’s already exhibited at the pro-level. If Cain can drop his K% from 2012 back down to his 2010-2011 averages, he should have no problem attaining that average or higher. Couple that with his speed potential and that he plays for a Royals team that even let Jeff Francoeur steal 22 back in 2011 (with 10 CS…facepalm), Cain’s 2013 bag swiping numbers output might be better than even my prorated 2012 stats put him in line for. In the end, Cain is probably not a discount. What? I thought the conclusions of these were supposed to make us feel like we were getting a bargain. I know I’m reading this for free but I feel like I just got robbed. Calm down, readers, I mean in terms of his surrounding talent. But would I rather take Cain where he’s going over a guy like Norichika Aoki and his 115 ADP price tag? Yup. But is he going near guys like Ichiro Suzuki and Brett Gardner who could be considered reasonable but not huge discounts? Yup again. Cain profiles as an OF5 and is getting drafted as such. The main thing being, he has OF4 potential so the bargain is there, if ever so slight.
If everything clicks just right – the Royals become an offensive juggernaut, Cain stays healthy and plays a bit above his head – you could get a Shane Victorino circa 2010 out of him, but that’s you and me dreaming together. Last time I checked, you’re not Leonardo DiCaprio and I’m not Ellen Page…but if I were Ellen Page, I’d probably enjoy it too much and never leave the house. Wait, what? Oh yeah, I still like Lorenzo for your team and mine but just don’t go jumping out of the gates to prove it unless you’re in a deeper league.
