Americans (at least pre-tariff Americans) would feel very adept at navigating a slate like tonight, but in actuality, they would be prone to massive bias. There are just too many options and while Americans have been used to plentiful options throughout the past 50 years at least, we are prone to bias as a way to navigate the system more efficiently. We have brands we trust and items we always have on hand. We rarely deviate from some established norms. That could happen tonight and we may get massive ownership on the Yankees or the Dodgers who carry the highest Vegas team totals. You win tournaments by recognizing your biases and preparing to play differently.
I can identify 8-10 teams tonight that I think could be the winning stack in tournaments. I will likely make all my roster decisions from that list of 8 teams. The Yankees and Dodgers will draw ownership, but it’s also an 11 game slate and there are plenty of ways to be different tonight. I don’t mind heavy ownership on Judge or Ohtani or the cheaper Yankees like Ben Rice. Look at this list of other teams that could be the best scoring team of the night…ATH, HOU (this lineup also comes at a bit of a discount), CHC, TB (cheap too), TEX (discount!), BOS, CLE, LAA, BAL.
You need to identify an angle…something that people in worse off economies really understand. They aren’t used to having so many choices. You may even want to reduce your choices tonight and try to isolate a top 5 in terms of teams. Make sure one or two of them are cheaper options. I can point to an angle or three in each of the games listed above. You have to lean in and play 5 guys from that lineup you like the best including the C. If you don’t want to roster the C, cross them off your list (or play a 3 person stack).
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Jeffrey Springs, SP: $8,200 – Springs has been producing around what is expected of him this year and I like that in a pitcher facing the White Sox who have struck out 30% of the time vs LHPs this year. Springs is also harder on righties – the CWS lineup is going to be all righties.
Bailey Ober, SP: $6,700 – Ober is nothing special, but this is a value play and Ober will not be priced this low again. It is still cold in MIN and Ober can get lots of easy outs when things are playing in his favor. It’s a good risk at the price.
Yainer Diaz, C: $3,400 – The truth is Yainer is not the best play because there are tons of Cs that are gonna attract ownership tonight for good reasons. Diaz happens to be the cheapest because he hasn’t had good results yet. They will come.
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B: $3,900 – This is a tough position to isolate just one guy, but Mountcastle stands heads and shoulders above his peers in maxEV and his barrels should start to turn into HRs very soon. It’s a great matchup as well.
Kristian Campbell/Kyren Paris, 2B: $4,000 – How could one distinguish? They have similar abilities and are in great positions tonight to continue mashing. Ride this young wave or climb up a few generations to Marcus Semien for $200 less.
Josh Jung, 3B: $3,400 – This is a position with fewer good options so I am okay paying down for an average power bat like Jung. An injury held him back, but since his return he has been producing. I like the underpriced Rangers bats in a great righty-lefty matchup.
Mookie Betts, SS: $6,000 – I like paying up at SS, because someone is bound to produce a good score from that position and Mookie has that ability in spades, especially vs. COL whom he will be two steps ahead of the whole way.
Jhonkensy Noel, OF: $2,900 – He has a maxEV better than Aaron Judge and he’s priced like this!? Hopefully, he is in the lineup, batting 5th, and getting chances to drive in the expected baserunners tonight.
Kyle Tucker, OF: $6,300 – Kyle Tucker is in the top 5 of most fantasy player raters, so there is no need to justify this pick, however, Vasquez has primary pitches that get hit pretty hard and put away pitches that also get hit hard when they aren’t creating whiffs. Tucker is not going to whiff much in this matchup, so I am betting he hits it hard and creates a little havoc on the basepaths as well.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Thankfully we can all have another sad Tuesday. The rain should stay away from most ballparks. Take advantage of the warmth and winds in Tampa and the winds in New York and LA.
Doing Lines In Vegas
There are plenty of big favorites including the Yankees and Dodgers. I love all of the favorites tonight as well, but maybe 60-65% will win. If you parlay 3 big favorites, your odds of hitting the parlay are around 20%. Some of these favorites will disappoint tonight and I think there are enough teams flying a bit under the radar tonight who could produce big DFS scores and be great for cashing bets. I think HOU and the ATH are two teams that are being undervalued offensively.
white Sox k at 30% vs lefties but that was before Chase Meidroth came up…an on base machine and with winds out today I say he has a game tonight.