DFS: Giant Hitters Who Can Land a ‘Gut’ Punch Late Tonight

Friday’s slate is a doozy with 13 games that are hard to sift through and see much of anything standing out. There are no clear starting pitcher plays (are there ever?) and there are very few offensive spots where you could justify a 5 man stack. However, it is highly likely that 5 man stacks WILL win tournaments so we still must hunt for them.

Is offense down across MLB? After running the numbers, it doesn’t seem to be significant.

I inquired about this because it is a bias that has crept into my thinking as more and more people around the industry have been discussing it. This bias affects me by making me think I should not look for 5 man stacks because teams are in general scoring less or not hitting as many HRs. It is so statistically impossible to hunt for individual players to fill out your DFS lineups, hoping that each one has a ceiling type experience or hits a HR. The winning strategy is still to find a team you believe in to stack or a pitcher you don’t believe in to stack against. Let’s look into what tonight’s slate provides.

There are a number of pitchers that I do not believe in on this slate. Bailey Falter has succeeded with a .199 babip that is sure to correct soon. TOR gets the opportunity to profit from Mr. Falter. Kenta Maeda is a pitcher whose viability is in question. He has an 8% swK rate which is well below average and a 10% barrel rate that has led to 16% of his fly balls going for HRs. With a little luck, BOS could produce a big DFS score tonight. The DFS industry never trusts Patrick Corbin since he is always stacked against, and especially tonight vs. a good CLE offense that is actually surging and plays very well vs lefty pitchers. Finally, I do not trust Dakota Hudson who really struggles with command and often requires GBs inducing double plays to get out of the trouble he creates for himself. LAD are middle of the pack in terms of hitting into DPs.

Looking at DPs, the team with the fewest is BAL. They stand out as a good team to stack because of the power and speed up and down the lineup. Limiting double plays also helps to keep their innings going. Aaron Civale is going to scare me away from a good offense. 

Sometimes you just need an under the radar play, a “gut” call if you will.  Marcus Stroman has been running hot lately (last 3 games) with a low babip and 100% of runners left on base. Meanwhile, SF has been a hot offense. A simple 3 man stack of Giants could go unowned and put you over the top as a late night hammer whereas the rest of the people you are facing will spend up on Yankees outfielders.

Hope you enjoy the thoughts on tonight’s slate. Look below for some of the players I will be targeting. As always I try not to highlight the expensive players, but on a 13 game slate I will look for a few of those that I really am confident can win you a tournament. Check out my Twitter for a chart with the breakdown of stats I rely on to inform my research.

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Walker Buehler, SP: $8,700 – The Dodgers are heavy favorites tonight and the 4 points that come with a win are huge for a pitcher in this price range. Buehler has been very unlucky giving up HRs and hopefully, he will rely less on his 4 seam FB. Whatever the case, I feel good facing a COL team playing on the road.

Jose Berrios, SP: $8,200 – I want to anchor my lineups with a player who is highly likely to score 20 DFS points and I think Berrios is that guy tonight. He has been great pitching at home in his time as a Blue Jay and he faces a PIT offense with one of the highest K% in the league over the past 14 days. 

Connor Wong, C: $3,600 – All the best catchers are priced up so I might just follow the strategy of adding the C to my stack. Wong stands out as having a good position in the lineup, a good matchup, and some interesting recent exit velocity events. He does not produce barrels, but I like his ability to rack up DFS points tonight. 

Vlad Guerrero, 1B: $5,100 – Say what you will about his lack of HRs, but Vlad has been a great hitter according to the underlying metrics. The matchup is a beauty tonight as Bailey Falter has been lucky while Vlad has not. Hopefully, we see some statistical correction tonight.

Jordan Westburg/Jorge Mateo, 2B: $5,100/3,800 – I kinda hope Mateo gets the start for his price, but Westburg has been just an awesome crusher of the baseball recently and all year. Mateo has been no slouch himself, which maybe speaks to the competition BAL has faced recently. Still, they get a nice spot tonight facing Civale.

Matt Chapman, 3B: $4,500 – There are a lot of good 3B options tonight, but Chapman has been surging. His K/BB numbers are enticing and he has always produced solid contact. He could be the low owned “had to have it” player and the late night hammer tonight vs. Stroman. 

Carlos Correa, SS: $3,900 – This is another position just stacked with great options. Someone will emerge tonight and it could easily be Correa, whose price tag saves a lot of salary. He has competitive hard hit data over the past month, it’s just his K% which is a bit high. Still, Blanco and the HOU bullpen do not frighten me from rostering the main RBI threat in a decent MIN offense.

JJ Bleday, OF: $3,700 – The former first round pick is earning his spot as the #2 hitter on OAK. His underlying metrics and stats are great this year, especially against RHP. He’s been pretty capable vs. lefties too so all ? of his at bats should be quality appearances. He faces Reynaldo Lopez who has slowly been coming back to earth as far as K% is concerned. Next, Lopez will see his 3.6% HR/FB start to rise and I’m guessing Bleday gets one.

Yordan Alvarez, OF: $5,300 – This will not be an easy matchup for Pablo Lopez whose fantasy owners cannot be happy at the moment. Alvarez is starting to heat up and I want him at this reduced price against a pitcher who has struggled to contain the HRs in a recent bad stretch.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

Weather people aren’t talking about much rain today outside of Kansas City where it’s gonna be wet around gametime. This is important because Dylan Cease is on the mound for SD in KC tonight. I don’t really want to start Cease at his price in KC with so many options, but I wouldn’t argue with you if you did.

Doing Lines In Vegas

I’m not admitting I’ve done lines in Vegas, but it is far more interesting than the lines we have to sift through today. All O/Us are between 7.5 – 8.5….boring. The teams with the highest totals are the same as I found in my research. I would continue to be wary of the high totals for ATL. We can all agree that they will turn it on at some point because the players WERE great in the past. Recognize that bias and that past performance does not necessitate future success. Yes they hit the ball hard, but no different than the New York Mets. Their K/BB numbers over the past 30 days are bottom five in the league. JP Sears specializes in limiting hard contact and he has a better chance at limiting ATL than they have of exploding for 6+ runs.