How is it going so far for you this DFS season? Think about how your season-long teams are doing and how your DFS results have gone. What attitude are you approaching today’s slate with? If you have not been successful, there can be a slight bias developing towards more conservative game play in DFS while taking shots in your season-long leagues. There are loads of biases that arise out of our early success or lack thereof. It is important to step back and assess how bias is affecting your play so far. If you ever want to talk it out, message me on X.
While I am certain people are prone to biases, there is not much else to be certain regarding the individual statistical results we have so far in baseball. We do know that some pitchers have changed their arsenals or pitch mixes, but we are unsure how teams will adjust. We are still largely guessing about individual season-long success, but we do know that walks are up across the league, as are barrels. We should take advantage of this knowledge to better analyze pitching selections and to look for people who excel in taking walks and hitting barrels.
Arizona is the only team tonight that really stands out from a BB% + barrels standpoint. Additionally, they are in a good spot vs. Zack Littell at home. I have an interest in the Athletics tonight against Patrick Corbin. There is power in the top half of that lineup, and plenty of ownership will fall on the Athletics, but it also might be worth it tonight. Other interesting teams include PHI, MIL, and MIN. If some of the higher-owned offenses fail, one of these 3 teams could find their way to being the best stack on the night.
I am going to stay away from SF and KC today. I think the pitchers they are facing could get tagged up a bit, but I don’t like the potential for the HRs we need to win tournaments.
There are very few standouts tonight on offense, but there are plenty of good spots. It is always necessary to stack 4 or 5 from one team (for most tournaments), but one-offs and smaller sub-stacks are very viable on this slate with lots of options and ownership sure to be spread out. Good luck! Own those biases so you can stop letting them ruin your brilliance.
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Cristopher Sanchez, SP: $8,700 – I made a bold prediction that Sanchez would be better than Paul Skenes this year. They are back to back (2.55 to 2.62) in xFIP so far this year at pitcher 10 and 11. Sanchez has the more fantasy friendly stats with a higher K rate despite a few more HRs. Of course, I’m taking Sanchez here in a matchup I am not afraid of.
Kris Bubic, SP: $8,900 – It’s pretty smart to take the highest projected player against the worst projected team. The one saving grace and possible reason you could consider fading Bubic is that the park at KC has a lower K factor than COL. Bubic should pitch well, but will his score match others if his K% is underwhelming tonight?
Shea Langeliers, C: $4,200 – He will be highly owned, but rightly so. Shea has only 5 HRs so far this year, but he continues to lead the slate in FPPG.
William Contreras, C: $4,500 – Of course, you cannot roster both Cs on DK, however, I am toying with the idea of only rostering one of these two across all my lineups tonight. I like them both and their matchups a lot more than any other C tonight. This allows me to hit on a ceiling score (and likely good floor) on all of my lineups at a difficult position.
There are a lot of 1B choices. Avoid Bryce Harper at the high end of the price range and play the one that matches your stack.
Tommy Edman, 2B: $4,100 – Edman’s price has come down from a high of $4,800, and he is still such a force in that lineup. He has a great contact rate and barrel rate, and he excels vs. lefties. What’s not to like?
Austin Riley, 3B: $4,800 – Riley is easily the hottest 3B and has the best batted ball stats. He is having an awesome season and refuses to hit the ball on the ground, something his opposing pitcher excels at. I trust Riley to put another one into the stands tonight.
Zach Neto, SS: $4,000 – Neto has started out hot out of the gates after recovering slowly from an injury to start the year. Neto excelled ever since he came to the majors and should be trusted to make life on Bailey Falter tough tonight.
Taylor Ward, OF: $4,500 – I wouldn’t be surprised if Ward carries the highest ownership as a leadoff bat with good platoon splits vs. the ever hittable Patrick Corbin. You tell me if you want to play him, and then imagine most people have the same answer. I like him as a one-off or as part of a stack tonight, but I also like plenty of other options who could surpass Ward tonight.
Jackson Chourio, OF: $5,200 – Chourio does not like to take a walk. He has a 1.9% walk rate this year, which is great when facing a pitcher who doesn’t strike many guys out. In a league that is taking more walks and hitting more barrels, I can gain an edge by rostering a guy like Chourio, who is looking for the barrel and not the walk.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The games in ATL and CHC will likely see some rain around first pitch, but it seems like they will be playing the game eventually. There is always some concern, and if you can manage to follow alerts on these two games, you will easily be able to play or fade them based on the news. I suspect they will be played.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I am really surprised with the team’s total and high confidence in KC winning this game. I know they are facing the worst team in the league, but the KC offense has really been stunted so far this year.
