If you have Colt Keith on your team and you held onto him after his first month as an MLB player, congratulations! You are one of the smart people who could see the potential in Keith and not hit the panic button.
Keith entered the season as one of the top prospects in baseball, ranking 28th, 22nd, and 22nd by Baseball America, MLB, and Baseball Prospectus, respectively.
Keith intended to play at Arizona State University of high school but opted to sign with the Tigers after being drafted in the fifth round in the 2020 draft. With no minor league games being played that season, he made his professional debut in 2021 and played at three different levels, starting at Rookie ball and finishing at High-A.
In 62 games overall he slashed .270/.381/.367 with two homers and 27 RBI. In 2022, Keith was playing for High-A West Michigan and slashing .301/.370/.544 with nine homers and 31 RBI in 48 games before suffering a season-ending injury in June when diving back to the base on a pickoff attempt. Last year he split time between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo and slashed .306/.380/.552 with 27 homers and 101 RBI in 126 games combined.
The Tigers knew they had a gem in Keith and rewarded him with a six-year deal that pays him more than $28.5 million. With club options and escalators, the deal could be as much as $82 million over nine years.
Let’s see why the Tigers and people like me believe Colt Keith is a top Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player.
The Statistics
| MONTH | G | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OPB | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar/April | 26 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | .154 | .222 | .165 |
| May | 24 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 1 | .343 | .388 | .493 |
| June | 23 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .220 | .238 | .329 |
| July | 13 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 1 | .370 | .463 | .804 |
The start of Keith’s career was rocky, to say the least. After the month of April, he was slashing .154/.222/.165. Those are not pretty numbers. But if you look into his stats, there was some numbers you could point to say he was going to be alright.
His strikeout rate was 18.2% – four points below the MLB average. Meanwhile, he had an 8.1% walk rate. Keith then got hot in May, as you can see above, and his strikeout rate decreased to 17.5%. June was another hard month, but his strikeout rate remained steady at 17.8%. However, his walk rate took a nosedive to 1.2% as he had only one walk in 84 plate appearances.
But Keith has put everything together during the month of July. He’s slashing .370/.436/.804 this month with five homers and 13 RBI in 13 games covering 54 plate appearances. Interestingly, the strikeout rate has jumped to 25.9% this month, but his walk rate has also jumped to 14.8%. The increased power output has led to a few more strikeouts, but it is a tradeoff any dynasty owner will take.
The Tools
- Hitting
Colt Keith has a nice, quick swing from the left side that allows him to spray the ball all over the field, as you can see from the spray chart above. With a low strikeout rate compared to the league average, he should be able to hit for a high average.
I certainly see him being able to flirt with .300 every year, and with a decent walk rate, that will produce a solid OBP as well.
- Power
Since being drafted, Keith has grown into his 6-foot-3 frame. The added strength has led to better power, as evidenced by the 27 homers he hit in the minors last year in 507 at-bats. Right now it is mostly to his pull side as all but one of his homers have gone to right field.
The dimensions at Comerica Field make it a little harder for lefties to wallop the ball to the opposite field, so that may lower some of Keith’s power potential a bit. Right now his 162-game pace is 17 homers. However, I believe he is more than capable of hitting 25 homers on a regular basis.
- Speed
Like with many of the players I featured this season, Keith is not a speedster. He is not a plodder on the basepaths as his sprint speed ranks in the 68th percentile. But he is not a straight-up base stealer.
The five bags he has swiped this season are the most he has had since becoming a professional.
The Future
Right now he is playing second base for the Tigers but he should have no problem moving to third if needed in the future thanks to a strong arm (he pitched in high school and featured a mid-90s fastball).
I really like Colt Keith’s upside. He hits the ball for average and with power, doesn’t strike out a lot, and should increase his walk rate. That kind of skillset leads to a very successful career. While the Tigers have had a slew of top prospects not pan out or regress (looking at you Spencer Torkelson and your current .237/.344/.393 slash line at Triple-A Toledo), I don’t think Keith is going to flame out.
While he has been hot lately, you may be able to pry him in a trade with an owner who only is looking at this season numbers. If that owner is in your league, now is the time to try to pull off a trade. Keith will still struggle at times this season, but I’m sold on him as being a starting second baseman, especially in 16-team leagues or bigger.
