Welcome back, everyone. I hope you are enjoying your start to (hopefully) your three-day weekend.
As we make our tour around the majors and talk about up-and-coming dynasty players, we land in the Pacific Northwest this weekend and feature a pitcher for the Seattle Mariners.
Bryce Miller is now in his second season with the Mariners. Originally drafted in the 38th round by Miami in the 2018 draft. Miller decided to instead transfer from Blinn College in Brenham, Texas, and head to College Station to pitch for Texas A&M. The move worked out for Miller.
Three years later he was drafted in the fourth round by Seattle in 2021 and by 2023 he was pitching in the majors.
So let’s talk about Bryce Miller, an up-and-coming dynasty player.
STATISTICS
SEASON | W-L | G-GS | IP | K | BB | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NCAA | 8-6 | 54-10 | 110.2 | 141 | 57 | 4.07 | 1.355 | 11.5 | 4.6 |
Minors | 7-6 | 36-33 | 162.2 | 196 | 51 | 3.93 | 1.119 | 10.8 | 2.8 |
2023 – Sea | 8-7 | 25-25 | 131.1 | 119 | 26 | 4.32 | 1.142 | 8.2 | 1.8 |
2024 – Sea | 3-5 | 10-10 | 58.2 | 56 | 16 | 3.53 | 0.972 | 8.6 | 2.5 |
Despite not being drafted out of high school and eventually only in the fourth round by the Mariners, Miller shot through the Seattle system as if he is Paul Skenes. And Miller has done this as a starter. During his time at Texas A&M, Miller was used exclusively as a reliever his first two seasons before making 10 starts out of 13 appearances in 2021.
The Tools
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The Fastball and Sinker
Bryce Miller has a fastball that can match any starter in baseball as he has touched 99 mph but sits at 95 mph, ranking in the 67th percentile. No matter what speed he is throwing, he has had great success with the pitch. Opposing hitters are hitting only .167 against the pitch this season with a .333 slugging percentage and a 30.5 Whiff%.
Last season Miller threw his fastball at basically the same speed, but he did not have the same success as hitters had a .256/.450 (AVG/SLG) slash line. So what is the difference?
Last year Miller’s fastball was pretty flat. In 2023, his fastball averaged 3.5 inches of horizontal break and 11.8 inches of vertical break. This season Miller has been able to get some more movement on his four-seamer as it is breaking 6.2 inches across the plate with 12.1 inches of drop.
His sinker has been a better pitch this season as well thanks to more movement. Last year the pitch averaged 95.1 mph and had 14.1 inches of horizontal break and 17.9 inches of drop. This year Miller is averaging 94.7 mph and it is breaking at 19.9 inches with 17.9 inches of drop. The result – a batting average of .240 compared to .260 last year.
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Breaking Pitches
In addition to his four-seamer and sinker, Miller features a slider and sweeper and a split finger he added this season. He has ditched his changeup and curve, pitches he threw only 5.6% and 0.9% of the time last year.
Miller’s split has become a very effective pitch for him. Acting as his changeup, it comes in at 84 mph. Miller is throwing the pitch 17.9% of the time and hitters are managing only .154 batting average with a .212 slugging percentage and 28.6 Whiff%.
Bryce Miller has always featured a great power slider that has good depth, dropping an average of 34.3 inches the last two seasons. But it is a pitch he is featuring less this year. He threw it 19% of the time last season and the usage is down to 7.5% this year.
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The Command
This has been the biggest area of improvement for Miller since joining the Mariners. In college he had a 4.6% walk rate, but that quickly fell to 2.8% after he got drafted and pitched in the minors. Last season his walk rate was 1.8% but it has increased slightly this year to 2.5%.
One of the reasons for the walk rate to go down is likely due to the fact that he is now more of a pitcher than a thrower. With Texas A&M, all he had to do was come out of the pen and throw gas. A walk was not likely going to hurt him because he limited the amounts of hits he allowed while posting an 11.5 K/9 rate. Once he became a starter, he started to limit his walks, though that has also meant a decline in his strikeout rate.
In the minors, he had a 10.8 K/9 rate. That fell to 8.2/9 last season and it currently sits at 8.6/9 this season.
The Verdict
For the season, Miller has churned out some good numbers. His ERA sits at 3.53 and he has a great WHIP of 0.972. But those numbers are aided by a great month of April.
Last month he posted a 2.04 ERA and 0.877 WHIP. In 35.3 innings he allowed only 19 hits with 12 walks while striking out 39 for a 9.9 K/9 rate (with a 3.1 BB/9 rate. However, the month of May has not been kind to Miller. In four starts, he is 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.114 WHIP. His walk rate has dropped to 1.5/9, but his strikeout rate has dropped to 6.6/9 and he is allowing nearly a hit per inning (22 hits in 23.1 innings of work).
What has really hurt Miller is the long ball. After allowing five homers the first month (not a great number), he has already served up six long balls this month, like this one to Gunnar Henderson.
May has not been kind to Miller, but I am still a firm believer in his ability. Just last week I traded for him in one of my dynasty leagues. The trade was a true case of buy low as the other owner already soured on him. When offered Miller for a prospect, I jumped on the chance to add him to my rotation.
Bryce Miller still features a good fastball and his split has really become a great difference maker. The league is obviously making adjustments to him, but that was bound to happen.
The key will be Miller’s ability to adjust. I have no doubt that he will and will serve as a very effective No. 3 starter. He is not going to be an ace. But I am counting on him to be the pitcher he has been overall – giving me a 3.50 ERA with a low WHIP and a decent number of strikeouts.
Good stuff! As always!
What do you make of what Deyvision De Los Santos is doing right now in the minors? Is he forcing a call up? Does he have a place in the D’backs lineup? I know he’s still extremely young but is he worth a stash in a keeper league, not a dynasty, or is it too early with him?
Also, with the injuries to the O’s rotation do you see Povich or McDermott getting the call soon and would either be fantasy relevant this year? I know rookie pitchers are tough to judge. Or should I focus on trying to snag Blanco off waivers? He was dropped when suspended.
Thanks!
Lots to unpack here. And you’re talking about three players I have on one of my dynasty teams a Blanco on the MLB roster and De Los Santos and McDermott on my prospect roster.
De Los Santos is obviously knocking on the door. Cleveland selected him in the Rule 5 draft, but returned him back to Arizona. But they obviously saw something. Walker is blocking him at first, but he could slot in at DH. If he continues this pace, I could see him up by July. But unless you have space to stash him in your keeper league and know you want him next year, I’d pass on adding him.
I really like McDermott, but he needs to reduce those walks. Povich has been awesome, but I’d go after Blanco. He’s retuning soon and will thus provide immediate help.
Thanks for reading and the questions.
Thank you for the in depth response!
You’re welcome.
What are your thoughts on Jonathan Clase being recalled? 102R, 20HR, 68RBI and 79SB last year. Does he play and is he a must add?
I’m sure at some point he will be recalled. I’d he a must add? If you need steals, then yes. But he still had holes in his swing that will get attacked on the MLB level.
If you have room to stash him, then add him when he likely returns. Otherwise I’d try to play wait-and-see for adjustments made or not made.
Thank you! He was recalled and played yesterday but not today. I will keep an eye on him.
Too many players to track! Thanks for the heads up. Obviously I missed that one.
Nice job…couple questions, thoughts on David Hamilton, playing more and seems to be hitting…same with Jake Meyers…thank you for all you do!!
Hey Hutch, hope the weekend has started well. Hamilton, for me, is not a long-term investment. He’s shown some power in the minors, but that’s not his game. He really has one tool – speed. He’s hitting well right now, but I don’t think that’s going to be sustainable.
Meyers is someone I’m much higher on for the rest of this season. He’s shown power in the past, but the big difference is his confidence. Dusty Baker moved him in and out of the lineup during his tenure. Espada has been starting him nearly every day. Meyers now’s look less tentative at the plate.
He’s striking out less and pounding the ball. I don’t think he’s a .300 hitter, but I see .270 with 18 bombs. Is a player to keep for next year and beyond? That depends on your league.
16- team leagues, he has value. 12-team league, he may be your fourth outfielder but good depth.
Thanks for reading.
Great breakdown. A question….how much of it is because of his home ballpark?
Home: 2.37 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Away: 4.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
The difference maker – HR allowed.
Home: 3
Away: 8
If you take away just those five HR, and assume they are all solo shots, his adjusted ERA is 3.18 and his adjusted WHIP is 0.92
I know you can’t take these things away nor can you dismiss what he’s done and where….I just wonder if he’s a must-start at home and a matchup start on the road?
I’m rambling so I will stop:)
Thanks, Dave, and ramble away!
I think you nailed it on the head in his home – away splits. He can get away with pitches at home that he can’t on the road, and that is part of his learning curve.
I’ve personally never worried about if a pitcher is starting at home or away except for maybe the live ball days at Colorado. A good pitcher should succeed on the road and at home.
Miller will adjust. At least I believe he will adjust.
Thanks for reading and the comment.