SAGNOF essentially means don’t pay for saves or steals. Steals/Saves Ain’t Got No Face, i.e., they can be found for cheap. They are in abundance later in drafts and on waivers. For this post, let’s focus on steals. Everth Cabrera didn’t play a game in the majors until May 17th and gave you 44 steals, the 3rd most steals last year. Rajai Davis came in 2nd in steals with 46. He was drafted in the last rounds and found on waivers in many leagues. Coming in first for steals last year was Mike Trout, he might’ve been drafted in the end rounds, but he wasn’t held onto in most mixed leagues. Coming in 5th with 40 steals was Ben Revere, then Coco Crisp, Juan Pierre, Carlos Gomez, Alcides Escobar… In the top 11, Victorino, Bourn and Reyes were the only ones that you needed to pay for at your draft. If you’re paying for steals, you’re not seeing something that is as plain as the hair growing from your nose mole. Steals are cheap and all over waivers. If you carry a SAGNOF’er too long in your outfield, your power will start to pay the price, unless that SAGNOF’er is more than just steals with average, power and counting stats. Whenever I can get SAGNOF at middle infield, I am delighted like a menopausal mother at a Nancy Meyers movie. “I wish to wear a floppy hat and watch a Diane Keaton marathon. Won’t you join me, Margaret? I’ll order in for scones.” That’s your mom talking to her BFF. So we’ve established steals are cheap, and you want them in the middle infield. Enter stage “a’ight” Billy Hamilton. So what can we expect of Billy Hamilton for 2013 fantasy baseball?
Billy Hamilton stole 155 bases last year between High-A and Double-A in 132 games and 192 attempts. Take a second to digest that. In that second you took to digest, Hamilton just stole another base. And another. I think 192 attempts is even more unfathomable than the 155 steals. He was only on base 247 times! And he just stole another base. You gotta figure there was a few times someone was on base in front of him, right? And he just stole another base. If he got 200 hits in the majors in one season, he’d steal 500 bases in a season and pass Lou Brock’s old record of 938 steals before the All-Star Break in his 2nd season. That’s, of course, assuming he didn’t walk once. And he just stole another base. If he walked, he’d steal 15,000 steals in one season. I’m not exaggerating. I’m underestimating his speed. And he just stole another base. He could steal 27,000 times in a year with a hundred walks. Okay, that’s an exaggeration. He could probably only steal 25,500 bases a year. But around there is still pretty good. And he just stole another base. The bad news, Hamilton will more than likely lose his shortstop eligibility. The Reds are playing him in center in the Arizona Fall League — where he just stole another base — and the Reds are planning on Hamilton taking over for Stubbs, because they’re sick of Drew’s .213 average. And he just stole another base. I imagine Hamilton will be in the majors in June and playing everyday center just after the All-Star Break. In a full season of ABs, he could steal 70 bases, but more than likely his line will be 35/0/15/.260/35 in 300 ABs. And he just stole another base. And another.
