I remember being really excited for my first crack at a public top 100 back in September of 2019. I actually started building it in early August because I had some time to simmer before my big debut at Razzball, and I wanted to come in hot with a ranking that reflected the way I see the game.
Click here to see that Top 100 Prospects for 2020 Fantasy Baseball
and/or click here to stretch to the Top 150 Prospects for 2020 Fantasy Baseball
As the deadline approached, the true scale of the task came into view.
In order to rank the top 100 minor league players for fantasy baseball purposes, you have to rank every single minor league player for fantasy baseball purposes. I suppose this is intuitive, but I didn’t realize as much on the front end, back in 2019. I also didn’t realize that’s a lie I was telling myself. It’s not that I have to rank every player, but I have to know generally where I would rank every player.
Even that’s not true. Something I learned doing the team’s organizational rankings top ten lists the last two off-seasons was that I needed more processes for eliminating players than for finding them. It’s not altogether different from dynasty roster management in some senses, where your squad is like a bonsai tree: if you’re not pruning the dead and dying branches on the regular, your tree will not grow. Early on in that org ranking process, I figured I’d just make each list as long as the org was deep. Seems fine on the front end, I suppose, but I realized I wasn’t really making any difficult decisions. I could always just rank a guy 11th, or 18th, or whatever, so who really cares about the 10th ranked prospect? Just write the blurbs and cover the system. I didn’t have to grind out the work and make real choices like I do with just ten. The same played out with the 100. Now that I’ve set that limit, it helps me shed light on the Korry Howells and Alec Burlesons of the world, and it helps me push guys like Nick Pratto up to where they belong because I just have fewer branches on the tree.
This year, for this list, I realized what I really needed was buckets into which I could put every player so I could really digest the task’s enormity. I tend to get lost in these spreadsheets. Make a tweak. Check some player pages. Find some video. Watch, think, drag and drop, rinse, repeat. I have no idea how many hours are in this spreadsheet, but it feels like most of them. Some days I know I can’t open it because I’ve got stuff to do, and time does not exist in that realm. Anyway, here’s how I broke it down.
My groupings were:
The Elites
| Rank | Player | Position | Age 4/1/21 | Team | ETA |
| 1 | Wander Franco | SS | 20 | TB | 2021 |
| 2 | Vidal Brujan | 2B | 23 | TB | 2021 |
| 3 | CJ Abrams | SS | 20 | SD | 2022 |
| 4 | Julio Rodriguez | OF | 20 | SEA | 2022 |
| 5 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | 3B | 24 | PIT | 2020 |
| 6 | Corbin Carroll | OF | 20 | ARI | 2023 |
| 7 | Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 20 | KC | 2022 |
| 8 | Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 21 | DET | 2022 |
| 9 | Jarred Kelenic | OF | 21 | SEA | 2021 |
| 10 | Marco Luciano | SS | 19 | SF | 2023 |
Pretty clean cut-off with the top ten in this version, but I think I’d be dropping Kelenic out of the category if I mixed it up again today. Not because of a bad week but because I’ve never matched the prospect world’s enthusiasm for him, so it’s pretty easy for me to back off when the time comes. Especially ridiculous was his stolen base projection by the math people, who put him down for 16 or 17 depending on where you looked. That’s how many Acuna as a rookie. Wild math, boys.
I could see a case to drop Carroll out of the group too because he’ll miss the year and might have lingering shoulder issues, but I think the delay lines him up to be atop the list after everyone ahead of him graduates. He’s as talented as any non-Wander on this list.
Foundation Pieces
| 11 | Alek Manoah | RHP | 23 | TOR | 2020 |
| 12 | Francisco Alvarez | C | 19 | NYM | 2023 |
| 13 | Alex Kirilloff | 1B/OF | 23 | MIN | 2020 |
| 14 | Adley Rutschman | C | 23 | BAL | 2022 |
| 15 | Noelvi Marte | SS | 19 | SEA | 2022 |
| 16 | Jasson Dominguez | OF | 18 | NYY | 2025 |
| 17 | Riley Greene | OF | 20 | DET | 2022 |
| 18 | Jarren Duran | OF | 24 | BOS | 2021 |
| 19 | Heriberto Hernandez | OF | 21 | TB | 2022 |
| 20 | Luis Matos | OF | 19 | SF | 2022 |
| 21 | Brennen Davis | OF | 21 | CHC | 2022 |
| 22 | Triston Casas | 3B | 21 | BOS | 2022 |
| 23 | Nick Pratto | 1B | 22 | KC | 2022 |
| 24 | Hedbert Perez | OF | 19 | MIL | 2024 |
| 25 | Greg Jones | SS | 23 | TB | 2023 |
| 26 | Gunnar Henderson | SS | 19 | BAL | 2023 |
| 27 | Liover Peguero | SS | 20 | PIT | 2022 |
| 28 | Wilman Diaz | SS | 17 | LAD | 2025 |
| 29 | Jeter Downs | SS | 22 | BOS | 2021 |
| 30 | Grayson Rodriguez | RHP | 21 | BAL | 2022 |
| 31 | Reid Detmers | LHP | 21 | LAA | 2022 |
| 32 | Oswald Peraza | SS | 20 | NYY | 2022 |
| 33 | Nick Lodolo | LHP | 23 | CIN | 2021 |
| 34 | MacKenzie Gore | LHP | 22 | SD | 2022 |
| 35 | Gilberto Jimenez | OF | 20 | BOS | 2023 |
| 36 | Nick Gonzales | 2B | 21 | PIT | 2022 |
| 37 | Simeon Woods-Richardson | RHP | 20 | TOR | 2021 |
| 38 | Hunter Greene | RHP | 21 | CIN | 2022 |
| 39 | Oneil Cruz | SS | 22 | PIT | 2021 |
Would likely make some tweaks here if the tiers were the ultimate goal, but I worry about the dogma of grouping players during the late stages of the list, so I deleted the tiering headlines and spaces in the final couple days before go time. During the process, this group was where I put players I’d be comfortable building around in a dynasty league. I’m not saying I’d never trade these players, but I’d be acquiring and holding them in just about any stage of a cycle. I tend toward parting with high priced prospects in that final push for a title run but not until that point. At the beginning of this year in a 20-team league where I co-own the Dubuque MudPuppies with my brother, trading away Spencer Torkelson or Corbin Carroll would’ve been the furthest thing from my mind, but just last week, we did exactly that, sending Tork, Carroll, Orelvis Martinez, Jameson Taillon and Christain Walker for Vidal Brujan, Jared Walsh and Tarik Skubal. Might look a little wonky if/when Carroll comes back strong, but that’s why the other team is doing it, and we’re doing it because we’ve been in first place much of the season among a tightly packed group at the top and benefit from rearranging the timeline on our assets.
Sorry for the jog there. Back to this tier, I should’ve had Cruz higher, certainly above SWR. Easy enough to say when Cruz is cruising, I know, but I’ve ranked him aggressively all along and only ever had, uhem, off-field reasons to worry.
Should Hunter Greene be even higher? Like, above Gore? Hmm . . . he’s theoretically in his 800-1000 innings Tommy John honeymoon phase, so long as the Reds don’t screw it up, so that’s an odd factor to calculate. He’s still mostly fastball though, and Woods-Richardson has the kind of off-speed command I prize even if his heater is not the biggest fire the north has ever seen.
Jordan Walker should probably be in this group, too. The Cardinals placed him on the IL the Friday before Saturday night’s publication date, and the club did not provide any specifics. He landed at 47 in the snapshot weekend reckoning, but if he comes back hot, he jumps up next to Nick Gonzales.
Bashing Bob Hassell has a good case to be a foundation piece. He’s 56 at the moment, but that looks kind of light to me just a week later. I’d take him over Asa Lacy at 50 for sure. Tracking up the list, I don’t find much resistance until Walker and Michael Harris. Should he be above Sixto for dynasty purposes? Might be a smart swap to offer for rebuilders holding Sanchez.
Above the Bubble
| 40 | Luis Patiño | RHP | 21 | TB | 2020 |
| 41 | Sixto Sanchez | RHP | 22 | MIA | 2020 |
| 42 | Zach McKinstry | 2B/OF | 26 | LAD | 2020 |
| 43 | Shane McClanahan | LHP | 24 | TB | 2021 |
| 44 | Alek Thomas | OF | 20 | ARI | 2021 |
| 45 | Tyler Freeman | SS | 21 | CLE | 2021 |
| 46 | Trevor Larnach | OF | 24 | MIN | 2021 |
| 47 | Jordan Walker | 3B | 18 | STL | 2024 |
| 48 | Michael Harris II | OF | 20 | ATL | 2023 |
| 49 | Austin Martin | 3B/OF | 22 | TOR | 2022 |
| 50 | Asa Lacy | LHP | 21 | KC | 2022 |
| 51 | Max Meyer | RHP | 22 | MIA | 2021 |
| 52 | Orelvis Martinez | 3B | 19 | TOR | 2023 |
| 53 | George Kirby | RHP | 23 | SEA | 2022 |
| 54 | Tyler Soderstrom | C/OF | 19 | OAK | 2023 |
| 55 | Gabriel Moreno | C | 21 | TOR | 2021 |
| 56 | Robert Hassell III | OF | 19 | SD | 2024 |
| 57 | Edward Olivares | OF | 25 | SD | 2020 |
| 58 | Jesus Sanchez | OF | 23 | MIA | 2020 |
| 59 | Kristian Robinson | OF | 20 | ARI | 2022 |
| 60 | Kyren Paris | SS | 19 | LAA | 2023 |
| 61 | Michael Busch | 2B/3B | 23 | LAD | 2022 |
| 62 | Korry Howell | SS/OF | 22 | MIL | 2022 |
| 63 | Erick Peña | SS/OF | 18 | KC | 2024 |
| 64 | Jhoan Duran | RHP | 23 | MIN | 2021 |
| 65 | Josiah Gray | RHP | 23 | LAD | 2021 |
| 66 | Royce Lewis | SS | 21 | MIN | 2022 |
| 67 | Drew Waters | OF | 22 | ATL | 2021 |
| 68 | Roansy Contreras | RHP | 21 | PIT | 2021 |
| 69 | Quinn Priester | RHP | 20 | PIT | 2023 |
| 70 | Cole Winn | RHP | 21 | TEX | 2023 |
| 71 | Zac Veen | OF | 19 | COL | 2025 |
| 72 | DL Hall | LHP | 22 | BAL | 2022 |
| 73 | Miguel Vargas | 3B | 21 | LAD | 2022 |
| 74 | Josh Jung | 3B | 23 | TEX | 2021 |
Especially in the early stages of my process, here’s where I dragged and dropped the guys who felt like they’d locked themselves into the hundred. Not sure yet if they’re the kind of pieces you don’t trade away.
I’m a little disappointed with the Priester ranking. Feels like I gave too much room to the echo chamber on that one. I do think he’s established some nice trade value on word-of-mouth and draft pedigree, but I’d be looking to do just that if I had any shares.
Howell should be higher. I’d rather have him than Freeman at this point.
Waters might be too high here. He’s striking out 29.7 percent of the time and slugging .411 in AAA at 22, but that’s not really the issue. He’s been caught stealing in 5 of 12 attempts, but that’s not really the issue either. It’s encouraging to see him running so much, and he actually has a strong .369 OBP and 116 wRC+. I just don’t know where he’s going to be loud at all for our game. Perhaps he’ll run like crazy even if he’s getting caught all the time, but that will cost him playing time. Feels like his top-end outcome is Bryan Reynolds, which, that’s actually really good, but I’m talking 90th percentile there, and if that’s the case, we may as well just try to package him with some other stuff to trade for Bryan Reynolds.
Jung’s got a shot to really move when he comes back from injury. He’s in a long line of alt-site hype machines, most of which are having engine trouble, so if that’s his story too, he’ll plummet. If the opposite field power we heard about last year manifests early, he’ll join the next tier up heading into 2022 as a likely early call-up who can provide some batting average and power.
On The Bubble
| 75 | Blake Walston | LHP | 19 | ARI | 2023 |
| 76 | Jose Garcia | SS | 23 | CIN | 2020 |
| 77 | Daniel Espino | RHP | 20 | CLE | 2023 |
| 78 | Jackson Kowar | RHP | 24 | KC | 2021 |
| 79 | Ronny Mauricio | SS | 20 | NYM | 2023 |
| 80 | Curtis Terry | 1B | 24 | TEX | 2021 |
| 81 | Angel Martinez | SS | 19 | CLE | 2022 |
| 82 | Heliot Ramos | OF | 21 | SF | 2022 |
| 83 | Nolan Gorman | 3B | 21 | STL | 2022 |
| 84 | Garrett Mitchell | OF | 22 | MIL | 2023 |
| 85 | Joey Bart | C | 24 | SF | 2020 |
| 86 | Spencer Howard | RHP | 24 | PHI | 2020 |
| 87 | Cornelius Randolph | OF | 23 | PHI | 2021 |
| 88 | Brandon Marsh | OF | 23 | LAA | 2021 |
| 89 | Josh Lowe | OF | 23 | TB | 2021 |
| 90 | Alec Burleson | 1B | 22 | STL | 2022 |
| 91 | Gavin Sheets | 1B/OF | 25 | CHW | 2021 |
| 92 | Taylor Walls | SS | 24 | TB | 2021 |
| 93 | Heston Kjerstad | OF | 22 | BAL | 2023 |
| 94 | Pedro Leon | SS/OF | 22 | HOU | 2022 |
| 95 | Diego Cartaya | C | 19 | LAD | 2025 |
| 96 | Jake Eder | LHP | 22 | MIA | 2022 |
| 97 | Endy Rodriguez | C | 21 | PIT | 2023 |
| 98 | Bubba Thompson | OF | 22 | TEX | 2022 |
| 99 | Cristian Hernandez | SS | 17 | CHC | 2025 |
| 100 | Daniel Lynch | LHP | 24 | KC | 2020 |
I think the name explains the tier here. Throughout the process, I wasn’t certain if these guys were in or out. Here’s the next tier so I can combine them in the conversation.
Just Missed
| 100 | Shane Baz | RHP | 21 | TB | 2022 |
| 101 | Logan Gilbert | RHP | 23 | SEA | 2021 |
| 102 | Leonel Valera | SS | 21 | LAD | 2023 |
| 103 | Brett Baty | 3B | 21 | NYM | 2023 |
| 104 | Cade Cavalli | RHP | 22 | WSH | 2022 |
| 105 | Taylor Trammell | OF | 23 | SD | 2021 |
| 106 | Jordan Westburg | SS | 22 | BAL | 2022 |
| 107 | Luisangel Acuña | SS | 19 | TEX | 2023 |
| 108 | Edward Cabrera | RHP | 22 | MIA | 2021 |
| 109 | Maikol Escotto | SS | 18 | PIT | 2023 |
| 110 | Elijah Tatis | SS | 19 | CHW | 2025 |
| 111 | Ethan Elliott | LHP | 24 | SD | 2022 |
| 112 | Jordyn Adams | OF | 21 | LAA | 2022 |
| 113 | Emerson Hancock | RHP | 21 | SEA | 2022 |
| 114 | Brailyn Marquez | LHP | 22 | CHC | 2021 |
| 115 | Carlos Colmenarez | SS | 17 | TB | 2025 |
| 116 | Luis Medina | RHP | 21 | NYY | 2022 |
| 117 | Joe Ryan | RHP | 24 | TB | 2020 |
| 118 | Alec Marsh | RHP | 23 | KC | 2022 |
| 119 | Caleb Kilian | RHP | 23 | SF | 2022 |
| 120 | Chris Gittens | 1B | 27 | NYY | 2021 |
| 121 | Bryce Ball | 1B | 22 | ATL | 2022 |
| 122 | Owen Miller | 2B | 24 | CLE | 2022 |
| 123 | AJ Puk | LHP | 26 | OAK | 2019 |
| 125 | Darryl Collins | OF | 19 | KC | 2023 |
I need to find room for the top five in the Just Missed tier.
If Dodgers SS Leonel Valera is available in your leagues, I suspect you should just pause here and go pick him up now. I’ll wait.
More on him later, but for now I’ll say a player has to profile pretty intensely to look like he could be a real fixture in the Dodgers’ future, and Valera looks like he could be a real fixture in the Dodgers’ future.
Baty went absolutely nuts this week after I left him off the list. Great source for future pun runs.
Pedro Leon would be one to take the short fall. Adjustment period gets the better of most Cuban prospects because they typically haven’t played in a long time and then face the best pitching they’ve ever seen on a day-in day-out basis.
Daniel Lynch would take a dip. Probably should’ve left him off the list.
Howard, Sheets, Randolph, Gorman and Walls all stick out as players who could move based on performance over the next couple months. Randolph is likely the least chamber-loved of these, but he’s actually the one I’d want from the five if I had to pick right now, for most leagues. I do have one 30-teamer where I need pitching and would spin the wheel with Howard.
So that’s how I built the top group.
The remaining tiers I used were:
On The Bubble
Below the Bubble
Slumps With Signal?
Injured
Planning to dig through that mess in the coming days and weeks and come back to you with some news you can use, or something.
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
