One Man’s Trash: A Changed Dollander

On October 26, 2001, Tyler Chase Dollander was born. “Tyler is so cute!” said family, friends, and admirers. As baby Tyler morphed from blob to actual human, the words became, “Tyler! Get down from there,” or “Tyler, turn off the PlayStation and eat!” Tyler this. Tyler that. Then Tyler started playing Little League and eventually found pitching to be his calling. He was good, but Jimmy Schronik would always barrel him up, look directly into his eyes, smirk, then jog around the bases as the Labrador chasing butterflies sees the ball bounce among the dozens of gopher-sized holes and retrieves it on the other side of the outfield fence. Enough was enough, and Tyler decided he was going to change things up. The next time the two met on the field, this time it was Tyler who looked Jimmy directly in the eyes, smirked, and said, “Chase this,” right before he hurled a devastating slider that made Jimmy pirouette like a ballerina for strike three. Tyler looked around at no one in particular and yelled, “Call me Chase from now on!” And so it was done.

Last season, Chase Dollander pitched 98 innings in the majors with disastrous results. The ERA was 6.52 while the FIP was 5.53. The strikeout rate was only 18.6% despite averaging 98 mph on the fastball, while the walk rate was 11.1%, resulting in a paltry 7.5% K-BB%. He also gave up 18 home runs.

As young Tyler turned into Chase, Dollander has made a similar transformation from last season to this season. Through 32 innings, the ERA is 2.25 while the FIP is 3.03. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on the fastball with a 30% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and has served up only three home runs.

What changed, and is it sustainable? Let’s dig in.

Dollander is 24 years old, 6-foot-2, 219 pounds, and throws from the right side. He was selected by the Colorado Rockies with the ninth overall pick in the 2023 draft.

Throughout his minor league career, Dollander did an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard while the strikeout rate was often in the high-20 to 30 percent range. The control was always an issue, though, with a walk rate at 9% or higher.

Last season in MLB, the average exit velocity was 88.7 mph with a 12.5 degree launch angle and 11.5% barrel rate. The GB/FB was 1.11 while the chase rate was only 23.4%.

This season, the average exit velocity is 91.9 mph with an 11.8 degree launch angle, but the barrel rate is 8.9%. The GB/FB has spiked to 1.46 while the chase rate has gone up to 30.9%.

The main reason for the change looks to be a different pitch mix. Last season, Chase Dollander threw the fastball 48.8% of the time. He’s throwing the pitch only 37.8% of the time. He’s completely ditched the cutter and replaced it with a slider, which he is throwing 19.8% of the time after utilizing it only 0.2% last season. The sinker utilization has gone from 9.8% to 21.7%, while the changeup has gone from 7.8% to 12.5%. After throwing the curveball 21.3% of the time last season, Dollander is only throwing it 8.1% this season.

The fastball had a 19.9% whiff rate last season. It’s now up at 30% this season. The slider is at 32.4%, the changeup is 31.3%, and the curveball is 60%.

Dollander has always had the stuff. With sequencing and different complements, the total package has confounded batters. And with a 99 mph fastball, there is no time to think about the puzzle.

Now, Dollander has been a little lucky with a .263 BABIP and 87.7% strand rate. In addition, he’s been much more effective against righties than lefties, as the FIP is 2.13 vs. 4.54 while the K-BB% is 34.7% compared to 7.3%.

That said, Chase Dollander has been much more effective AT Coors Field than on the road. It’s been only two starts, but the FIP is 1.38 at home while the K-BB% is 31%. Those two starts were against the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies.

Pedigree? Check. Stuff? Check Check. Conqueror of Coors? Remains to be seen as we have to wait how he performs when the ball starts flying, but he’s at least shown the ability to be more-than-effective so far. Dollander is worth the scoop if available, especially since the strikeout ability is fantasy-friendly.