I hope you’ve enjoyed my look at ADP movers because I’ve got one more installment for you! We’ve gotten firmly to the lower middle of 15 team drafts, as today I’m looking at rounds 16-20. These are players ranked from 226-300. What do you tend to get when you go this deep? For batters, it’s a lot of platoon guys and ones that are only plusses in 2-3 categories. For starting pitchers, we’re talking injured guys and the back of your Fantasy rotations, and for relievers…..well locked in closers are long gone at this point. In FAAB leagues, you still want to find full year guys here, but you also should not stay married to them if something goes wrong.
So again, here are the most interesting ADP risers and fallers in this range. I’m comparing ADP from the last 14 days to ADP from October through the end of December.
Interesting Risers
Willi Castro 392.44 to 280.2
Virtually every free agent lifts after they actually sign. But for the Kyle Tuckers and Bo Bichette’s of the world, the effect is kind of muted. We know all the top guys will head to a good team and bat near the top of the order. But for lower tiers, the details really matter, and yada yada yada, anyone who drafted Castro on spec early on really got a best-case scenario. He finished 2025 as a sporadically used bench bat on the Cubs after a trade deadline escape from Minnesota. He also was not that good on the year, batting .226 with 11 homers, 10 steals, and just 91 combined Runs and RBI’s.
And then he lingered in free agency until January 15th, when he signed with the Rockies, Coors Field, and what looks like a full-time starting job at 3B! Winner, winner! Castro’s whole “not a great hitter” issue remains as he’s a career .244 Avg. 94 wRC+ bat who’s maxed out at 12 homers. But that does not mean he’s a Fantasy dud. He has 2B, 3B, and OF eligibility even in formats like NFBC that require 20 games played. Plus, he stole 33 bases in 2023 and scored 89 runs in 2024. He projects as a double-double with a .250’s Avg and some decent counting stats. In real life, he still plays all over the diamond, though not particularly well at it, as he was a 12th percentile fielder as per Statcast. Will the Rockies care that much about that? Not terribly likely, good chance he plays most days as he’s slated to at least begin the season as their regular 3B. Perhaps the biggest risk is that he just gets flipped again at the deadline to a spot where he’s back to a utility bench bat role again. He’s fine at his new price, but I would not at all target him given the limited upside.
Kazuma Okamoto 322.21 to 245.6
The draft pop for 29 year old NPB star 3B is pretty easy to explain. He was posted and then signed in a great spot, and he projects to get a nearly full time run on the Blue Jays. He has a super interesting profile, perhaps even better than his countryman Munetaka Murakami. At least his floor looks better. Okamoto missed half of the 2025 NPB season, but he slashed a thrombolic 327/.416/.598 in 293 PA’s. with 15 homers and an equal 11.3% BB% and K%. I can’t translate either Japanese language or stats (Lost in Translation is a really good movie, I would add). I do know the NPB somewhat approximates our AAA. Okamoto projects for mid 20’s homers and a .250ish average, and he’ll accumulate well in Toronto. He’s still a nice target/fallback here if you waited on 3B.
Mike Burrows 337.91 to 283.4
We have another transaction-infused bump here as the promising 26 year old SP went from the Pirates to the Astros in a 3 team that also involved the Rays. Tampa Bay clearly likes to get its beak wet as they’ve participated in 6 of the last 7 3-team trades. Anyways, I’m not sure that move itself should have led to a pop as PNC is a friendlier home park for pitchers than Daikin, especially when it comes to homers (76 park factor vs. 105). And Burrows has looked modestly vulnerable to that in his small sample of 99.1 IP, as he has a 14.1 LA and 10.8% Barrel%. That’s likely offset by the Astros fielding a better team alongside their excellent history of developing pitchers.
And Burrows shows promise. He had a 3.94 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 2025 with a 16.4% K-BB% and 12% SwStr%. He profiles as a solid mid rotation arm on a good team. They’re projected to roll with a 6-man rotation as of now, which dings Burrows a little. But let’s face it, tons of teams say they’re going 6-man, but then all but the Dodgers tend to abandon it, or go with occasional spot starters in a 6-day rotation. I suspect the Astros go the 6-day route and Borrows gets in the 28-30 start range if he remains upright. There are a lot of similar interesting arms in this draft range, like Quinn Priester, Joey Cantillo, Ryan Weathers, and his recent teammate Braxton Ashcroft. I like Burrows as much or more than any of them, but I would still draft him here.
Sean Manaea 310.37-270.8
Let me start with the lead; I really like Manaea here! Yes, I’m a Mets fan, but Objective Me says he’s primed to rebound after an essentially lost 2025. Manaea famously turned into an ace in the 2nd half of 2024 after he discovered he could mimic Chris Sale (seriously, it was that simple). Then he went down with an injury in Spring Training 2025 and didn’t return until July, then had a certifiably lousy 5.63 ERA season. But my naked eye and a casual look under the hood both say he wasn’t actually that bad. Well, at least for a few innings each appearance as his ERA was 3.51 the first time through the order, 5.08 the 2nd, and 24.92 the 3rd (just 4.1 IP).
Even with all that, his overall WHIP was a perfectly cromulent 1.22, and his K% of 28.5% vs. BB% of 4.6% was downright excellent. His 12.6% SwStr% would mark a career high in a full season. Yeah, there are obvious health concerns here. He’s 34 now, maybe he gets some length back, but he’s maybe a 5 and dive guy going forward. Still, he had a 3.07 SIERA in his lost year, and he’s in a great park on a team that’s projected to win 90+ games. I really think you can get an SP2-3 upside guy at an SP5-7 price here. I am an absolute buyer.
Interesting Fallers
Matt Shaw 184.91 to 281.8
Well, the cause here is pretty obvious, as the Cubs signed Alex Bregman to take Shaw’s spot in the lineup. The real question is whether he’s worth a spec here. Shaw slashed a kind of ugly .226/.295/.394 in his rookie season, but he got much better over the course of the season. After the All-Star break, he went .258/.317/.522, good for a 130 wRC+. And on the year he had 13 homers and 17 steals. So if he can get on the field, that’s some nice Fantasy Juice.
“Get on the field” does a lot of work here. Shaw is versatile, but the Cubs are trying to win this season, and who’s actually sitting much in this lineup? Maybe OF or DH opens up a bit vs. lefties, but none of Bregman, Dansby Swanson, or Nico Hoerner will get many days off when healthy. There are still full time starters and strong side platoon bats at Shaw’s current price, he still should drop more imho, barring a Cubs injury or trade.
Spencer Steer 239.29 to 267.2
Ok, there’s going to be a theme here; useful Fantasy Guy drops as playing time projection dwindles. The Reds just signed Eugenio Suarez, which bumps Steer from projected full time 1B-DH to more of a utility role. He’s perhaps in not quite a dire PA projection implosion as Shaw mainly because the Reds do not have nearly the depth of proven quality players as the Cubs. Sal Stewart looks like a potential stud hitter at 1B, but so did CES a couple years ago in Cincy, so it’s far from a lock just yet. And Steer can also get time in corner OF as he could easily beat out the projected uninspiring LF platoon of JJ Bleday and Dane Myers, not to mention still unproven Noelvi Marte in right. Even if Steer is not technically a starter as of Opening Day, that’s a lot of paths for him to get on the field.
There is a question of whether Steer is actually good enough at baseball to where the Reds need to get him in the lineup? He had 20 homers and 25 steals in 2024, so we loved that for Fantasy. But the steals dipped to 7 in 2025. And he had a 97 wRC+, and his glove limited him to mostly 1B after the Reds tried him at all the corners in years past. I’d pass here.
Brett Baty 252.29 to 280.1
Displaced Corner Infielder Number 3 here! Baty was projected as the Mets starting 3B until they signed Bo Bichette. But as of now, it looks like he’ll still get run as a strong side platoon bat. It’s just not with a set position as he figures to see time at 1B, LF, and DH in addition to cameos at 3B and perhaps even 2B. He doesn’t have quite the fantasy-friendly profile of Shaw, but Baty has a way clearer path to PAs. He hit 16 homers and swiped 8 bags in 432 PA’s last year, while batting .254 with a 111 wRC+. And he flashed a plus glove at 3rd and a playable one at 2B. As long as I’m making comps here, I’d note he’s a better real life player than Steer while cast in a similar role. I don’t view Baty as a screaming buy or anything, as he has no carrying tool for our game. But he’s already eligible at 2B and 3B, and he could pick up both 1B and OF over the course of the season, and that makes him a very interesting guy in deeper leagues.
Thanks Stu!
More than cromulent!