All this talk about going to Mars and colonizing it is cool and all, but I’ve seen Total Recall and I shudder at the thought of the racism from the natives when we get there.
“Go back to your own planet!”
“You FOSs! Why do your eyes look like that?”
“You filthy, hairy beasts. We don’t want your kind around here!”
And the temperature!! I’m not down with -225 degrees Fahrenheit. And I’m all about the ice cold tub after the steam room.
Instead of spending the quadrillions it will take to do this whole Mars thing, let’s utilize the resources to make Earth better and keep Lars Nootbaar healthy.
Nootbaar has been in the majors for four seasons – this season will be his fifth. He’s accrued over 500 plate appearances only once, primarily due to injuries. Nootbaar has dealt with heel, back, foot, head, oblique, thumb, ribs, and abdomen injuries.
Some of them, though, were of the freak variety, like spraining his thumb while sliding into a base, or breaking his ribs while crashing into the outfield wall.
So, why do I root for Noot? Damn, I am officially a dad now.
Because Nootbaar is a helluva hitter. He’s had a double-digit walk rate in every season, while the strikeout rate has gone from 22.6% during his rookie season to 19.5%. In 25 plate appearances to start this season, the walk rate is 20% while the strikeout rate is a paltry 12%. Small sample size alert, so he’s not that good, but a walk rate in the teens with a sub-20% strikeout rate is pretty, pretty good.
Now, the power. In the prior three seasons, Nootbaar clubbed 14, 14, and 12 home runs. The ISO was .221, .157 and .172. To start this season, the ISO is .316 and he’s hit two home runs. That’s obviously not sustainable, but a .190-ish ISO is well within the range of outcomes.
Nootbaar is currently slashing .421/.560/.737 with an insane .429 BABIP. He’s going to cool off for sure and likely settle in the .250/.350/.440 slash area. That ain’t bad, yo!
Especially when you factor in the possibility of 10 steals and good health, Steamer currently projects Nootbaar for 498 plate appearances. What’s the phrase? Past performance does not guarantee future results. Projections by their nature are very conservative and essentially take the last few seasons and average them out. They provide a nice baseline, but they are not the end-all, be-all.
What if Nootbaar is healthy and gets close to 600 plate appearances? The probabilities are low due to the history, but it’s in the range of outcomes.
Nootbaar is batting leadoff. He’s hit left-handed pitching well throughout his career, so there is little risk of getting platoony loony’d. Nootbaar is rostered in almost all NFBC leagues, but he’s still under 50% in ESPN leagues. If he’s available, you scoop him up, pray to the injury gods, and then ride the wave for as long as it goes.
