Last year, we sponsored 3 15-team NFBC leagues as a complement to our ultra-intense Razzball Commenter Leagues. It didn’t go too well for either Grey or I but we are looking for redemption in 2015. Congrats to the three winning teams: Ocular Keratitis DC7Razz, TeachMeHowtoDougieGlanville, and The Deam.
The leagues will be the $150/team 50-round ‘slow’ draft format (see here for rules and prize structure) where you cannot add any players via free agency or trades. You can only promote players to (and demote players from) your starting roster of 2C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P on Mondays with an additional Friday switch for hitters only.
If interested, please submit your e-mail address below. Looking to draft all leagues starting March 2nd.
2014 NFBC Insights
While we only sponsored 3 leagues, I thought it might be interesting to do some analysis comparing pre and post-draft results. I don’t think there is anything very conclusive here but thought I would share nonetheless.
Here are the average totals across all teams, the Top 10 (of the 45 teams) and the Bottom 10. Interesting that the top 10 teams are worse than average in Saves.
| Avg | Top 10 | Bottom 10 | |
| R | 887 | 994 | 795 |
| HR | 205 | 232 | 180 |
| RBI | 863 | 959 | 785 |
| SB | 127 | 153 | 117 |
| AVG | 0.261 | 0.266 | 0.257 |
| W | 85 | 96 | 79 |
| SV | 64 | 60 | 51 |
| ERA | 3.54 | 3.44 | 3.85 |
| WHIP | 1.23 | 1.21 | 1.28 |
| K | 1251 | 1358 | 1203 |
The below table shows the projected $ (based on my pre-season 15-team $) in total/hitting/pitching (for all players $0+), the # of hitters/pitchers valued at $0+, and hit/pitch + SP/RP splits.
| Proj $ | Proj H $ | Proj P $ | Players>$0 | H>$0 | P>$0 | Hit$% | Pitch$% | SP$% | RP$% | |
| Avg | 266.9 | 175.9 | 91.0 | 26.5 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 23.6 | 10.1 |
| Avg Top 10 | 268.9 | 171.2 | 97.8 | 27.2 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 65.3 | 34.7 | 24.1 | 10.7 |
| Avg Bottom 10 | 272.2 | 188.5 | 83.7 | 26.4 | 14.5 | 11.9 | 68.8 | 31.2 | 23.1 | 8.1 |
| Correl with H_PTS | -7.4% | -19.6% | 13.6% | -4.7% | 5.1% | -9.8% | -21.3% | 21.3% | 9.6% | 22.4% |
| Correl with P_PTS | -1.2% | -28.1% | 36.8% | 12.7% | -0.5% | 17.1% | -48.1% | 48.1% | 27.9% | 42.8% |
| Correl with PTS | -5.3% | -28.2% | 29.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | -40.7% | 40.7% | 21.9% | 38.4% |
Notes
- Projected hitter $ was an AWFUL predictor of Hitter Points. It correlated at -19.6%. Atrocious. Somehow a team’s projected pitcher $ was a much better predictor of Hitter Points. On the other hand, Projected pitcher $ correlated at +36.8% with actual Pitcher Points.
- I dug into my draft to add some color to the Hitting $ vs Hitter Standings Points. Not surprisingly (since they were my $), my team projected best with $227.9 (average was $175.9). But my team ended up with only 34 Hitting Points, six BELOW average. Here are all the $0+ hitters. Holy sh*tballs did my draft go sideways after my first 3 picks! Only 4 players overperformed my projection and three of my top 7 hitters were at or below replacement level for 15-team leagues. While some of these picks could clearly be questioned, I think it is safe to say that there is some bad luck mixed in there too. After looking at this, I can see how a few unexpected injuries or crap seasons could just blow up a team. I still would think something like a 5-10% correlation vs projected $ but makes a little more sense with this context.
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Player Pos Draft Pick Proj $ Act $ Diff Paul Goldschmidt 1B 3 32.2 15.4 -16.8 Yasiel Puig OF 28 30.7 18.7 -12 Justin Upton OF 33 26.1 23.5 -2.6 Allen Craig 1B 58 18.6 -2.9 -21.5 Martin Prado 3B 118 15.9 8.7 -7.2 Will Venable OF 153 18.1 -0.5 -18.6 Brad Miller SS 178 17.5 0.5 -17 Neil Walker 2B 208 13.1 16.1 3 A.J. Pierzynski C 213 3.3 -2.5 -5.8 Michael Bourn OF 238 11.1 -0.1 -11.2 Mike Moustakas 3B 268 7.4 2.6 -4.8 Adam LaRoche 1B 273 9 16.9 7.9 Junior Lake OF 298 8.9 -4.6 -13.5 Corey Dickerson OF 363 15.7 20.2 4.5 Chris Iannetta C 483 0.3 2.2 1.9 Total 227.9 114.2 -113.7
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- I dug into my draft to add some color to the Hitting $ vs Hitter Standings Points. Not surprisingly (since they were my $), my team projected best with $227.9 (average was $175.9). But my team ended up with only 34 Hitting Points, six BELOW average. Here are all the $0+ hitters. Holy sh*tballs did my draft go sideways after my first 3 picks! Only 4 players overperformed my projection and three of my top 7 hitters were at or below replacement level for 15-team leagues. While some of these picks could clearly be questioned, I think it is safe to say that there is some bad luck mixed in there too. After looking at this, I can see how a few unexpected injuries or crap seasons could just blow up a team. I still would think something like a 5-10% correlation vs projected $ but makes a little more sense with this context.
- Quality player depth – measured by the number of players valued at $0+, had moderate positive correlation with Hitter Points (+5.1%) and stronger on Pitching Points (+17.1%). While the top teams and bottom teams had about the same # of hitters > $0, the top teams average about 0.7 more pitchers > $0.
- The top teams averaged a 65.3/34.7 hit/pitch split while the bottom 10 teams had a 68.8/31.2 split. Note this is based on the value of the draft picks themselves – not the value of the players selected. The overall average of our three leagues was 66.3/36.7 which is a little more pitcher-heavy than the NFBC ADP (which is almost exactly 67/33).
- Top teams invested more in SP and RP than the average as well as the bottom teams. The bottom 10 teams invested only 8.1% in relievers compared to 10.1% on average.
- I invested a little more in RP than average at the expense of hitting (64.4/23.3/12.2) while Grey was a little closer to average (65.5/25.5/9.0) with more $ in SP vs RP.
- I did a review of the average standings points across the three teams by player drafted and found the data too unreliable to share (e.g., Corey Dickerson drafted on average at pick #300 – a phenomenal value – and those 3 teams finished 8.8 points below average. The player that had the highest standings points that was drafted in the top 200 was somehow Desmond Jennings who ended up on the two best-performing teams).
