Fantasy Baseball Advice

Baltimore Orioles 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010)
2010 (9) | 2009 (9) | 2008 (16) | 2007 (17) | 2006 (25) | 2005 (18)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [66 – 96] AL East
AAA: [67 - 77] International League – Norfolk
AA: [75 – 67] Eastern League – Bowie
A+: [72 – 68] Carolina League – Frederick
A: [59 – 81] South Atlantic League – Delmarva
A(ss): [34 – 40] New York-Pennsylvania – Aberdeen

The Run Down
2010 was quite disappointing. The talent that has come through the Orioles system the last few years has been underwhelming despite the hype surrounding their call-ups (see: Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz who graced BA 2010 cover). Then there is Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta who have had success at Triple-A only to struggle in the AL East. Baseball America 2011 have ranked their farm system 21st overall stating only Zach Britton and Manny Machado are worth their breath. Although this doesn’t inherently mean there isn’t talent in the organization, it means the talent that has graduated to the majors have to figure out the majors. Beyond Zach Britton’s plus-sinker, I don’t expect many worthwhile names coming up from their minors this year. Machado won’t have a blurb due to when he was drafted.

Graduating Prospects
#1 (LHP) Brian Matusz; #2 (3B) Josh Bell; #4 Jake Arrieta; (RHP) Alfredo Simon

Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions
Pitchers – #22 (RHP) Oliver Drake; (RHP) Pat Egan; #8 (RHP) Kam Mickolio [traded]; #7 (SD; RHP) Wynn Pelzer;
Hitters: #10 (C) Caleb Joseph; #26 (2B) Ryan Adams; (SS) Greg Miclat; (1B) Ty Townsend

Players of Interest
All rankings are from Baseball America 2010 with information from Baseball America 2010 and 2011 along with John Sickels Prospect Handbook 2010 and 2011

Hitters
#6 Brandon Synder | 1B | D.o.B: 11-23-86 | Stats (AAA): .257/.324/.407 | 339 AB | 32 XBH | 9 Hr | .150 ISO | 4/1 SB/CS | 101:28 K:BB | .338 BABIP
Career .253/.321/.384 hitter in 171 games at Triple-A. Not what anyone was hoping for when he was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft. His upside is 15 to 20 home runs along with average defense and a solid swing that could produce a few .300 seasons. Snyder had a back injury in 2010 and missed five (5) weeks. Received 20 at-bats in September, but left a lot to be desired. Could see time if Derek Lee is injured. Current BA ranking is number 20.

#26 Ryan Adams | 2B/3B | D.o.B: 4-21-87 | Stats (AA): .298/.365/.464 | 530 AB | 58 XBH | 15 Hr | .156 ISO | 2/3 SB/CS | 121:47 K:BB | .358 BABIP
Moderate (gap) power, average defense (better at third), and no position openings in the majors. Has had a few injuries in his past. Reminds me of a young Michael Cuddyer with slightly less power. If there are several injuries, he could see significant time in the majors. Upside in 400 at-bats would be 15 home runs and 5 steals with a .275 average. Current BA ranking is number 8.

#18 Brandon Waring | 1B | D.o.B: 1-2-86 | Stats (AA): .242/.338/.458 | 472 AB | 56 XBH | 22 Hr | .216 ISO | 0/1 SB/CS | 179:59 K:BB | .337 BABIP
An aggressive hitter with above-average power. The strikeouts are worrisome, but does continues to add more walks each year. Can play average defense but projects more as a DH. Scouts expect him to be a power bat from the bench. ETA late 2011. Current BA ranking is number 23.

Tyler Henson | 3B | D.o.B: 12-15-87 | Stats (AA): .278/.329/.440 | 533 AB | 52 XBH | 12 Hr | .162 ISO | 7/5 SB/CS | 156:38 K:BB | .382 BABIP
Average power with good bat speed. Susceptible to strikeouts as he chases breaking pitches out of the zone. Boring. Fringe-outfielder. Current BA ranking is number 22.

Pitchers
#3 Zach Britton | LHP | D.o.B: 12-22-87 | Stats (AA/AAA): 7.3 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 | 153 1/3 IP | 2.70 ERA | 3.30 FIP (AA); 3.18 FIP (AAA) | 1.24 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 8.2 H/9 | .277 BABIP (AA); .303 BABIP (AAA)
Considered to have the best sinker in the entire minor leagues, sitting between 90 to 94 MPH.  Britton isn’t going to be a high volume strikeout pitcher. He does possess a plus-slider and a average changeup. Could be treated like Jake Arrieta was last year and receive about 100 major league innings. To start the year, he’ll return to Triple-A where he only threw 66 innings last year. Read his Scouting the Unknown article for more details. Current BA ranking is number 2.

Jim Miller | RHP | D.o.B: 4-28-82 | Stats (AAA): 8.3 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 57 2/3 IP | 4.84 ERA | 4.33 FIP | 1.35 WHIP | 1.4 Hr/9 | 9.4 H/9 | .313 BABIP
His 2009 blurb says it all, “A bit old… A career 10 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 pitcher in the bullpen could be wonderfully delightful for the Orioles.” His stats regressed slightly this past year, but could provide some useful mop-up duty. Current BA ranking is not rated as he is too old to be a prospect.

#7 (SD) Wynn Pelzer | RHP | D.o.B: 6-23-86 | Stats (AA): 8.1 K/9 | 5.0 BB/9 | 114 1/3 IP | 4.25 ERA | 3.70 FIP (w/BAL); 4.72 FIP (w/SD) | 1.65 WHIP | .9 Hr/9 | 9.9 H/9 | .367 BABIP (w/BAL); .327 BABIP (w/SD)
Received from San Diego in trade for Miguel Tejada. Fastball is a plus pitch that ranges between 91 and 94 MPH and top 97 MPH. His slider is average if not slightly above-average. The Orioles want him as a starter, but he has been a reliever for most of his young career. Makes sense when you have a dominant fastball and a power slider. If he stays as a starter, the earliest he could see the majors would be this September. Current BA ranking is number 6.

Honorable Mention
Hitters
#21 L.J. Hoes | 2B | D.o.B: 3-5-90 | Stats (A+): .278/.375/.368 | 353 AB | 24 XBH | 3 Hr | .090 ISO | 10/8 SB/CS | 70:53 K:BB | .333 BABIP
Mono caused Hoes to struggle after starting the year out blazing. He projects as a .300 hitter with gap power and average speed. Take his slash line with a grain of salt, if you’ve ever had mono, you would understand that Hoes strength did not return quickly when he returned. Hoes projects as the future second baseman for the Orioles. Current BA ranking for 2011 is number 4.

Ronnie Welty | RF | D.o.B: 1-19-88 | Stats (A+): .282/.349/.464 | 504 AB | 53 XBH | 18 Hr | .162 ISO | 11/4 SB/CS | 159:47 K:BB | .373 BABIP
Is a fourth outfielder, but could be a starting outfielder for a below average team. Has gap power and is a below-average runner. Upside is 20/10 if, as Baseball America says, “he can tap into his talent and power.” Current BA ranking is number 19.

Joseph Mahoney | 1B/LF | D.o.B: 2-1-87 | Stats (A+/AA): .307/.366/.498 | 462 AB | 50 XBH | 18 Hr | .192 ISO | 13/4 SB/CS | 95:39 K:BB | .346 BABIP (A+); .364 BABIP (AA)
Was the Orioles 2010 minor league player of the year. Has good raw power and current flashes moderate power. He can play both first and left with the average results. Has to prove 2010 wasn’t a fluke. Current BA ranking is number 11.

Pitchers
Ryan Berry | RHP | D.o.B: 8-3-88 | Stats (A/A+): 8.1 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 117 1/3 IP | 3.22 ERA | 3.24 FIP (A); 3.74 FIP (A+) | 1.21 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 8.1 H/9 | .326 BABIP (A); .264 BABIP (A+)
Throws a 87 to 90 MPH fastball with good life. Throws a 12-to-6 knuckle-curve. Changeup is average at best. Delivery is deceptive. Still projects to be a end of the rotation pitcher or bullpen fodder. Current BA ranking is number 9.

Robert “Bobby” Bundy | RHP | D.o.B: 1-13-90 | Stats (A): 7.1 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 116 IP | 3.65 ERA | 4.27 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | .9 Hr/9 | 7.8 H/9 | .272 BABIP
Throws a 88 to 92 MPH fastball with sinking action. Throws both a slider and a curve that need a lot of work. Changeup flashes above-average potential. All pitches have good action and movement. Needs to harness command before he sees more success.

San Diego Padres 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm talent ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (29) | 2008 (12) | 2007 (29) | 2006 (29) | 2005 (27) | 2004 (25)

Record of Each Affiliate:
Majors: 75 – 87
AAA: 60 – 84
AA: 70 – 70
A+: 73 – 67
A: 94 – 36
A(ss): 34 – 24
R: 28 – 28

The Run Down

The Padres, sans Peavy, are Adrian Gonzalez’s team. Too bad beyond him there are only a few stars ready for the additional limelight. Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of young talent already in the majors (Mat Latos, Kyle Blanks, Chase Headley, Everth Cabrera, Tony Gwynn Jr., Clayton Richards, Wade LeBlanc, and Kevin Kouzmanoff). However, this talent will be heavily relied upon unless the Padres spend some more money. Considering Peavy was traded to save money, I highly doubt that this will happen. There are also rumors swirling around that Bell may be traded. Additionally, Kevin Towers was fired as the general manager, however, leaving a pretty rosy situation for whomever they hire as their new General Manager. There is plenty of salary space, a 2008 draft class that is performing out of their mind (they did have a record of 94 and 36 – a 2.5 wins to ever loss), tons of young talent that will be cheap for years to come, and Gonzalez. This 2008 draft class has four players taken between the first and second rounds that had great seasons this year (James Darnell, Jaff Decker, Allan Dysktra, Logan Forsythe – and they are all hitters). The new GM will definitely still have to decide whether Adrian Gonzalez should be traded to open up first base for Blanks (would be a bad move as Gonzalez has taken a leadership role in the clubhouse); trade Kouzmanoff so Headley could play his natural position; and/or trade Bell. I am not going to speculate for there are other authors/bloggers/columnists who will do that.

You will notice that the Padres had an above-average ranking in 2008 and free falling to the bottom. Why? According to Baseball America, it was a combination of top prospects graduating (Nick Hundley and Headley), and several top prospects, especially pitchers, having terrible seasons in 2008 (Matt Antonelli [2B] went from #2 to #9; LeBlanc [SP] from #4 to #12; Drew Miller (SP) from #5 to #26; Steve Garrison [SP] from #6 to #22; and Will Inman [SP] from #7 to #18) and their 2004 first round draft pick Matt Bush [SS] has been an utter failure. The trade of Peavy returned several top 30 pitching prospects from the White Sox farm system (Aaron Poreda [LHP] #3; Clayton Richards [LHP] #5; Dexter Carter [RHP] #23 (who had the best fastball in Chicago’s farm); Adam Russell [RHP] #27), granted only Richards paid dividends this year while the others struggled mightily in the minors once they were Padres’ property. The trade of Scott Hairston to the Athletics brought in a couple of young right-handed power arms in Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano (with a player to be named later that ended up being Sean Gallagher). Italiano had some major injuries (labrum surgery on right shoulder in ’06 and a skull fracture in ’07) but has recovered and Webb is a bit unrefined but received a September call up. Only time will tell if these trades will benefit the Padres, other than saving them money of course.

Players of Interest
The players closest to the majors have either entered the majors (Latos, Blanks, Venable, etc.) or they aren’t worth mentioning. Antonelli was terrible this year at Triple-A and Kulbacki was just as poor at Double-AA. Thus, many of their top prospects that performed well are in the low minors.

Simon Castro | SP | A | 21 10.2 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 140 1/3 IP | 3.33 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
Baseball America’s breakout prospect (ranked #14) pulled through with that prediction throwing a dominating slider and fastball that peaks at 97-98 mph that averages between 92 to 95 mph. He improved his walk rate and control while keeping his strikeouts near his prior performance. Look for him to start in High-A with a quick promotion to Double-A and a possible promotion to Triple-A or the majors by mid-August. I could see him doing really well again next year (as long as he continues to induce ground balls against righties (47.6GB% vs RH), but does have a pretty decent rate of 39.8 GB% overall and keeps his control in check).

Jaff Decker | OF | A | 19 | in 258 AB – .299/.442/.514 | 25 2B | 16 HR | 92:85 K:BB | ranked #3
Other than having an awkward first name, Decker had an awesome year. I am not even sure where to start with this lefty hitting youngster. His numbers are helped by having other top hitting prospects Darnell and Dykstra hitting around him too. He has tremendous plate awareness, plus power “potential” and a stellar arm (think low 90′s fastball). Oh, did I mention he turns only 20 in February? He should moved up to High-A and reach Double-A by mid-June if all goes well.

James Darnell | 3B | A/A+ | 22 | @A in 222 AB – .329/.468/.518 | 17 2B | 7 HR | 51:57 K:BB | @A+ in 235 AB – .294/.377/.533 | 18 2B | 13 HR | 38:30 K:BB | ranked #10
Looks like Kouzmanoff and Headley better start hitting or Darnell (ranked #10) may sneak up on them. With good plate discipline, a plus runner, average range at third, a strong arm, and the ability to play RF if the Padres see fit, Darnell’s future is looking brighter. Additionally, he was one of three South Carolina players taken in the 2008 draft (after Justin Smoak and Reese Havens), but Baseball America says some consider him the better athlete with more potential.

Allan Dykstra | 1B | A | 21 | in 411 AB | .226/.397/.375 | 22 2B | 11 HR | 103:102 K:BB | ranked #8
Looks like Jack Cust has a new competitor in the strikeout-walk-homer triad competition. Well, that is if Dykstra can learn to hit more homers. He has something called avascular necrosis of the hip which is a condition that results in the hip joint not receiving blood. The result is pain in the groin, butt and down the front of the thigh. Eventually stiffness of the joint (hip in this case) or a limp while walking will occur and the long term effect is interference with sleep. He got this condition from falling during a basketball game. Pretty freak incident. However, that happened before he was drafted last year, but one must remember that this is a degenerative disease. He hit for average in college, has great zone control but does strikeout quite frequently, has good power, poor swing mechanics with his lower body, below average defender, runner and athlete. Looks better fit for an AL team.

Logan Forsythe | 3B | A+/AA | 21 | (totals) in 480 AB – .300/.429/.440 | 22 2B | 11 HR | 111:102 K:BB | ranked #11
He has had several injuries, but this year he was scrap free. He has a “short, compact swing; good defense; and an above average arm.” Supposedly, he won’t develop tons of homer power but great gap power as he has a natural line-drive swing. He didn’t do amazing like Jaff Decker, but he was pretty solid. As with most young hitters, he struggled at Double-A and will probably open there again.

Sawyer Carroll | OF | A/A+/AA | 23 (totals) in 479 AB – .317/.413/.489 | 40 2B | 9 3B | 8 HR | 19/9 SB/CS | 106:80 K:BB
Stellar name, tons of gap power, decent speed on the base paths but needs to be more efficient. Granted there is a small sample size, he never hit below a .316 average (A), a .402 on-base percentage (A+), and a .438 slugging percentage (AA) [.316 /.410/.464 (A), .320/.402/.531 (A+), .317/.440/.488 (AA)]. I am going to assume he will make Baseball America’s rankings this year as top 30 Padres prospect. He is a bit old to be a stellar prospect, but he still has some potential to surprise. Plus, with the year he had, his age now matches the level of play he should be playing in – Double-A, and should open there in 2010 season.

Wynn Pelzer | SP | A+ | 23 | 8.8 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 150 2/3 IP | 3.94 ERA | 1.28 WHIP
Threw 32 more innings than last year, improved his strikeout rate, regressed in his walk rate, but overall had a pretty good year. He doesn’t change speeds well, throwing his fastball between 93 and 95 mph, possesses a hard biting slider, and a poor change and splitter. Long term he looks better as a power reliever in the mold of a Brad Lidge. Look for him to move in the Double-A rotation with a September call up as a reliever.

Cody Decker | OF | R | 22 | in 198 AB – .354/.421/.717 | 21 2B | 15 HR | 42:19 K:BB
Not sure if Jaff[y] and Cody are brothers — couldn’t find it on the internet. Did find out Cody had 47 homers in college at UCLA playing first base and was drafted in the 22nd round this year. Matter of fact, he hit 36 homers this year alone if you combine his college homers and Rookie league homers (though that is a poor thing to do). Just look at his Cube ratings. He is doing pretty well for himself so far. He should start at Single-A next year.