Fantasy Baseball Advice

Today, I noticed my diploma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston was a bit dusty and hanging crooked. So, I removed it from the wall, gave it a spit shine, polished the wood frame and fixed the wire so it would hang straight. Before I returned it to its rightful place next to my framed TV Guide cover of Miss Piggy and Kermit, I took a hard look at that diploma. I thought back on of all my classes with Matthew Berry, who insistently hit on all of the undergrads, male or female. I reminisced about hanging in the CFB quad with Rudy as we hacky-sacked and discussed a classmate’s trade of Alfonso Soriano for Dustin Hermanson. I remember being young and free and unable to get laid. Now many years later, and still unable to get laid, I miss those days. I miss the carefree attitude. The excitement I felt when a player would get hot and I would think he can hit .800 for the year. Or the frustration when a first round pick went 1-for-5. “Why can’t they go 4-for-5 every day,” I would yell at Prof. Berry. Alas, the highs and lows are gone. But, thankfully, in its place is patience. So now I know Robinson Cano refuses to hit in the first half of the season. This season is no different. Last year, post All-Star Break he went 53/13/57/.343. Pre-All-Star break, in almost 50 more at-bats, he went 40/6/40/.274 and three of those home runs came in July. In ‘06, more of the same shizz. This would make him a prime Buy Low guy. Hmm… Maybe those fourteen years weren’t wasted getting my CFB diploma. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Troy Percival - As mentioned in the comments yesterday, Percy hurt himself and Wheeler came in to finish out the game. If Wheeler’s gone, go for Reyes if you have room.

Melky Cabrera - Of course he goes 2-for-4 on my bench. I love your name, Melky, I hate what you do to me.

Joba Chamberlain - He’s going to make his first major league start next Tuesday. This is subject to verification because I heard it from the Orioles announcers, who also manage to find positives about Mora, Millar and Ramon/Luis Hernandez, so they’re not that reliable. Though I will say they are a lot better than the YES announcers. Seriously, when I was a kid we had Rizzuto calling a black guy White and talking about huckleberries. This is not nostalgia talking. Scooter got into the Hall of Fame because of that nonsense (not officially, but still). Where have all of the good announcers gone? YES, I’m talking to you, Michael Kay.

Andy Pettitte - Rudy swears by this guy in deep leagues. I think Rudy’s caca-cuckoo. You make the call!

Adam Wainwright - You know what Wednesday means, right? Top Chef and The Real World: Hollywood! It also means a bunch of my pitchers went today, but I guess that’s more of a coincidence than anything. Wainwright does no wrong! It’s kind of a pun. Now groan!

Jeremy Guthrie - Another Grey pitcher!  I like him more than most and less than his Mom. Go figure!

Zach Greinke - Rudy gave me this schmohawk for Melky. Rudy has since dropped Melky. Wow, who’s winning this trade? Rudy’s been Greinke’d! (Yes, it’s a verb now.)

Jermaine Dye - Hit a home run yesterday. Last month, I picked him off waivers in my ‘pert league. I thought it was a bit crazy at the time that he was dropped, but since then Granderson’s been traded for Johan, and Rios was dropped by a team that held onto David DeJesus, so you just never know.

Chase Utley - You want regrets? I have a few. One is not having Utley in any league. I think I only could’ve had him in one league because of where I drafted. Alas… Nothing.

Jose Reyes - He’s at 7/16 and .279. Weren’t people saying he’s having a bad year? I love Reyes. (BTW, wouldn’t it be great if someone drafted Jose A. Reyes with their first pick? “What do you mean he’s only elgibile at catcher? He’s 0-for-his last two seasons? No, there’s got to be some kind of mistake. Wait, I’ll take a Molina!” “Which one?” “Um…. Alfred?”)

Cody Ross - 2 home runs. I wonder if his last name used to be Rosenweig.

Jo-Jo Reyes - Another guy I’m fond of, but I don’t have him any leagues. Yet.

Jason Giambi - Here’s my theory: they tested Giambi for ‘roids in April.

Joe Saunders - 5 ER in 5 IP. There’s a correction to ease your trigger finger about picking him up.

Jake Peavy - Had a promising sideline throwing session and might be back as early as this weekend. Figure he’ll be out at least 10 more days but, nonetheless, this is best case news for Peavy owners. This might be the last time you can get Peavy at a discount.

Pitching - We’d rave more about Bedard, Halladay, Harden, and Zambrano if it weren’t for the fact that Lowe, Wakefield, and Suppan also pitched well. You know it’s an odd day when San Francisco scores more than both teams combined in the majority of games.

Travis Hafner - He’s shown nothing so far and is playing with a bum shoulder (2 cortisone shots and counting). Evidently sore shoulders are harder to play with than high-grade tears of the elbow. When you start your career as a 27-year old DH, the clock’s ticking and it’s already a quarter to 12. Like a comet with a really big head, Pronk appeared out of nowhere, shone brightly, and seems to be disappearing just as fast.

Rafael Soriano - Picture John Smoltz is Nic Cage. Now picture Soriano is a bird. Okay, now picture Manny Acosta is a brown jacket. Finally, Will Ohman is a grey shirt. Okay, here’s the Braves closing picture.

J.R. Towles - 109 AB hitting .147. No SB. Makes you long for the salad days of Brad Ausmus.

Bowden Fluffer (noun) - A young, nubile outfielder that gets one all excited about their 5 tools but never fulfills the promise. See Justin Upton (May=.203, 1 HR, 34 Ks), Adam Jones, Cameron Maybin, Felix Pie, et. al.

I put “Should I trade Frenchy?” into Google’s French translator. The translator steered me towards Kayak.com. So naturally, I flew to France. Stayed at a lovely hostel in the Arrondissement 4 right in the heart of the fabled Latin Quarter. The joie de vivre from the mix of students was intoxicating (and so was the wine!). When I asked a garçon at the local café about Francoeur, I talked in my worst French accent, but no strange, sideways looks. Locals embraced me and my American flag t-shirt. One Frenchman, who I asked about Francoeur, took me by the arm and whispered in my ear, “The answer is right under your nose.” I replied, “The only thing under my nose is your smell.” “No,” he explained, “The answer is in your heart.” I laughed and said, “Thank you, Yoda-like Frenchmen. Maybe when your daughter shaves her pits, we’ll meet again.” Arriving back in the States, I realized he was correct, the answer was right under my nose. I can’t find one single reason to not think Francoeur will turn around his early season power outage. So why can’t he? His BABIP is fine; Ks actually aren’t bad at all. Is he being more selective? Not really. But whatever, he never was. Is he still hitting doubles? Yup. Ground balls up? Well, they are literally up, as in his fly balls are okay. A compilation of expert projections has him hitting at least 22 more home runs. I think he gets 25 more. Since he currently sits at 3, that makes him a Buy guy. Like Sam Cooke said, “Change gonna come, nephew.” Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers to buy and sell:

BUY

Salomon Torres - My favorite to replace Gagne (BTW, put Gagne into French translator and it came back with, “Backne.” Weird!). Can he do the job? I’m not convinced but The Backne Situation™ could get worse before it gets better. If I were a betting man (and I am, just not on this particular situation), I’d say Backne gets 22 saves, Torres 12, Mota 3.

Dontrelle Willis - I liked him (very sorta, kinda, a little) coming into the season and soon he returns to the Tigers. There’s some value there. How much? Well, I’d drop a middle reliever for a flier on Willis, but not much more. I would not start him his first time out. Or second.

Ian Snell - I think his price has reached rock bottom by this point. I would definitely drop a marginal player on my team for him. I would also not start him the first time out. (And, yes, I do have a school girl crush on all NL starters.)

Juan Pierre - Okay, whose eyes just bugged out of their sockets? Yes, I’m telling you to buy Pierre. I think his value is way down and he’s still doing what you want from him. However, I would not give a lot.

Jermaine Dye - Someone dropped him in one of my ‘pert leagues last week. (I don’t understand it either.) So I picked him up and he’s hit three home runs in the last three days. Can Dye keep it up? Here, I’ll text you the answer: Y not?

Carlos Quentin - By this point, I don’t expect he’s available in any league, but even in shallow leagues he should be picked up.

Kevin Slowey - Yes, I like NL starters, but occasionally an AL-er sneaks through. Don’t drop anyone you’ll regret, but Slowey’s been a bit of a favorite of mine for a while. Last Triple-A season, he had a 107/18 K/BB ratio, that’s solid, ya’ll.

Ben Francisco - Has 15/15 upside, just needs the at-bats (like 500 of them), but he’s started off well, hitting seventh, second and fifth in the last three games respectively. He definitely will see at-bats against lefties, so in AL-Only leagues, he could be a platoon-mate for an outfielder.

Franklin Gutierrez - Honestly, I could put the entire Indians team, except Hafner, on the Buy list. They’re all underperforming.

Jason Giambi - He goes on streaks where he hits a few home runs and shows flashes of ‘roided Giambi.

Nick Swisher - I don’t think that highly of Swisher, but he’s not as bad as he’s been. Just keep expectations in line. Caveat emptor for those in Latin America. ¡Hola!

Ryan Howard - He will not hit .165 the rest of the season unless he gets traded to the Rockies and starts at shortstop and their Shortstop Injury Curse hits him.

Chris Iannetta - Iannetta will toil away/Until judgement day/You will be rewarded for the good things he did/Believe me every year/There is another one here/Don’t you see Iannetta used to be the new kid… (BTW, this reference was for maybe two readers. Don’t try and figure it out if you don’t get it. Just buy their new album next Tuesday. They’re much better than that crap movie, The Breakup, that they were featured in. Trust me.)

Dioner Navarro - He will never be spoken of again. Pick him up or not; it is after all your team.

Blake DeWitt - Elias Sports Bureau, in conjunction with Jayson Stark, announced that the third base situation for the Dodgers is the first time in the history of baseball that a guy (DeWitt) is blocking another guy (LaRoche) and they both have a capital letter three letters into their last names. (Actually, that’s completely fabricated by me, but it sounds like something the ESB would say. Here’s some more things recently overheard at the Elias Sports Bureau, “That is the first time in thirty years that someone has drank Tang at lunch while using a stapler.” “The parking lot has 17 empty spots for the first time since 2006.” “That is the first time Gary has ever said, ‘Excuse me,’ after burping.”  Anyway, DeWitt’s hot. You can do worse in all leagues. *cough* Longoria *cough*

SELL

Justin Verlander - See this morning’s post.

Tim Lincecum - Now, Papa Smurf, don’t comment later in the day that you traded Lincecum for Slowey, Giambi and box of Munchkin donuts. I like Munchkins as much as the next guy, but Lincecum is worth more than that. I’m only telling you to sell him because you probably could grab two top OFs with him. His BABIP actually tells us that he’s been unlucky, if you can believe that. So get what you need, but don’t sell him short. Stick to your guns with ‘cum! (That’s a line right out of “The Magnificent Semen,” a remake of the Japanese classic, “The Semen Samurai.”)

Chipper Jones - He’s having an unreal beginning to the season. But here’s what we know from past seasons, he’s still very injury-prone. If you can move him for Ryan Howard or Edwin Encarnacion and McClouth or… Well, you get the picture. When Chipper’s on the DL in a month, don’t forget you had an option to move him.

Rich Harden - Please trade him. I’m begging you. You have like a millisecond before the next injury comes.

Eric Hinske - These early season home runs are a nice story. (Actually, it’s not that nice… It’s not even really a story.) If you can drop Hinske for a worthwhile middle reliever, I would do it.

Mariano Rivera - I don’t think he starts throwing Livan Hernandez-type eephus pitches, but he’s just saves more or less. If someone in your league, thinks Ray’s Original Pizza is freakin’ awesome and tawks about their honeymoon to the Jersey Shore, then maybe you trade Mo to them.

With fantasy drafts approaching (some already taking place, it’s imperative we go over the rest of the top outfielders to draft this year in fantasy baseball. If you’re looking for the top twenty of every position for 2008, click here. While I’m admittedly a huge fan of Rudy Gamble’s 2008 player rater/projections tool, I go more on instinct. (BTW, I haven’t lost a league to Gamble since Britney Spears was (supposedly) a virgin. Natch!) So what follows is what will be happening in 2008 for these fantasy outfielders. Don’t believe me; lose your league. I’ll sleep fine.

21. Manny Ramirez – I’ve already written why he should be avoided; click here. People disputed me. People were wrong. When he was 32, his lovable laissez-faire attitude didn’t matter. As time catches up to him, he doesn’t have the work ethic to put up top twenty numbers. I know that reports suggest Manny’s in the best shape of his life. Reports last spring training suggested Jason Schmidt would be the NL Cy Young. I know about the contract. Um, Manny’s a zillionaire. Do you really think he wants to play 150 games this year so he can make twelve million rather than ten? How many Wiis does Many need? Listen, he’ll still be one of the more productive elder statesmen (Hey, Luis Gonzalez, how’s the elbow?), but keep expectations in check. Projections: 85/32/105/.315

22. Hunter Pence – I tend to steer clear of second year players. (Here’s why Ryan Braun will suck.) In the first year, no one knows how to get them out (or catch up to them, if they’re pitchers). In the second year, everyone has the batter or pitcher’s number. Now they must adjust. This ain’t foolproof here; Hanley adjusted well (though I am down on Hanley this year, which you can see here). I’m just saying there are plenty of outfielders, why not go the safe rather than sorry route? Hunter may be great, but you’re going to have to draft him pretty high to get him. Stop with your ADD and wait a year; see what happens. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17

23. Delmon Young – See Pence, Hunter. I actually like Young more than Pence. In the minors, he showed more potential. I think his ceiling is higher. So why is he below him? Why ask so many questions? The Twins might actually be worse offensively than the Astros. I know! Hard to bee-leave, right? Anyway, Young, Pence and Corey Hart (who placed 19th) are all very close. Corey Hart is on the best team offensively, Pence on the second best, Young third. See how that worked. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15

25. Hideki Matsui – Why should you draft Hideki? Cause he loves porn. Also, you don’t get much safer. Sure, he had some injury problems recently, but he’s over the wrist and the knee should be fine. Stop looking for an argument. Projections: 105/25/100/.295

26. Vernon Wells – About here is where the caveats begin. Let’s call this Tier: Caveat. Caveat #1, Vernon absolutely sucks for extended stretches. I’m not talking an oh for twenty stretch. He’s stayed in a flunk for whole seasons. Ugh, I kinda want Swisher more. But he’s got caveats too. Well, Wells will steal… Maybe. I am giddy for Alexis Rios (he will be this year’s Holliday) and just maybe Rios can make the difference in that Jays lineup. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7

27. Jeff Francoeur – Caveat #2, it’s obvious. But he’s still very young and he took almost double the amount of walks last year (I know, double of nothing is still nothing. Cute.). Very solid lineup around him (barring injury to Chipper, which is a thirty game given). I’m beginning to believe in Frenchy. Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5

28. Chris B. Young – Caveat #3, Krispie doesn’t make a whole lot of contact, but when he does, he has a power/speed combo that should make any fantasy owner excited. I had him for a bit last year (Gamble dropped him. Natch, natch!) and I’ve been crushing on Young ever since, even when he was hitting .230 for me. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32

29. Andruw Jones – I don’t think he’s done-zo, but I watched more than my share of Jones at-bats last year. Caveat #4, He doesn’t care at all. Stop smiling after you strikeout; you’re really pissing me off! 85/32/110/.250 (BTW, speaking of not caring, while I was writing this up, I looked up to see if there was any new Andruw news. Seems he showed up to camp in Miguel Cabrera’s old body. Andruw will be retired by 36. Guaranteed.)

30. Nick Swisher – The move to the new team was a boon to his value, but that was mostly because his pre-trade value was pretty boon-less.  Caveat #5, Don’t go drafting Swisher expecting top OF value. He’s okay, but keep expectations in order. Projections: 90/33/105/.250

31. Jermaine Dye – Oddly, he seems like he has a bad attitude and, at the same time, no personality. (Unlike Jason Bay who can’t even sport a bad attitude.) Anyway,  Caveat #6, he had one good year amongst many mediocre ones. ’06 was an outlier. Don’t pay for a farkin’ outlier. Projections: 90/25/105/.280

32. Juan Pierre – Caveat #7, he’ll get you steals and maybe an inside the park home run if the official scorer blows a call on a bunt. Projections: 110/0/40/.300/50

33. Johnny Damon – Caveat #8, he relies on his legs and he’s getting old. And he’s getting old fast. Not sure what happened, perhaps diving for Manny’s cutoff throws took a lot out of him. If you don’t know what you’re getting from Damon by this point, you probably shouldn’t be playing fantasy baseball.  Projections: 105/15/70/.280/15

34. Jason Bay – Final Caveat, saved for this bum. I was going to leave Bay off completely, but I figured there would be some Pirates fan somewhere that would complain because Bay’s soooo cute and talented and, like, Canadian. Then I re-thought that and decided there are no Pirates fans. Act like you never saw Bay on this list. He’s poison. Projections: crap/crap/and more crap.

35. Shane Victorino – (Now’s the part of the list where I focus on sweet, sweet upside. These are guys you should be looking to draft.) Seriously, draft Victorino. What are you waiting for? I broke him down a few times already, but here’s the one that won me the Phillies Phulitzer. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40 and Victorino and I get a room. (BTW, cause I know this is coming, Gamble beat me to Victorino last year. Reverse natch!)

36. Matt Kemp – If the price is right, pounce on Kemp. Shandler’s projecting 14/20; Rotowire’s projecting 17/14; I’m predicting… Projections: 95/20/75/.290/20

37. Michael Bourn – He’s been discussed too if you click here. He’s Juan Pierre for the Gen Z generation.  Projections: 105/4/50/.280/40

38. Josh Hamilton – Now the only crack Hamilton knows is the crack of the bat. Oofa! Seriously, folks. He’s the feel-good story of ’06. Like a baseball Mr. Holland’s Opus. Yowsers! Anyway, he does seem to be a bit injury-prone so be careful, but there’s upside in Arlington. Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5

39. Josh Willingham/Jeremy Hermedia – The upside portion of our show has concluded. I’m not advising you draft both Willingham and Hermedia. Actually, I won’t be drafting either, but they’re here cause, well, you know, they belong here. While we’re here — A secret! Don’t draft any Marlin. I love the “Who you gonna call… Maroone!” commercials as much as the next guy, but this team’s going to be wretched. Projections for both: 70/24/75/85/.270 Hermedia’s got more upside and (supposedly) the ability to steal. This has yet to come to fruition.

40. Kosuke Fukodome – I already dropped some knowledge about this hombre on your Fukodome. I veer towards the proven, so here’s another guy I won’t be drafting. Why not take the gamble? One word – KazIwamura. Projections: 65/15/75/.275 and Murton gets some at-bats. Alas…

Tomorrow we go over the pitchers to grab in drafts after the top twenty. You’re welcome.