Fantasy Baseball Advice

Detroit Tigers 2009 Minor Review
Overall farm talent ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (28) | 2008 (29) | 2007 (14) | 2006 (13) | 2005 (29) | 2004 (22)

Record of Major League Team and Affiliate
Majors: 86 – 77 (AL Central)
AAA: 73 – 70 (International League)
AA: 71 – 70 (Eastern League)
A+: 55 – 75 (Florida League)
A: 81 – 59 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 35 – 39 (New York / Pennsylvania League)
R: 29 – 30 (Gulf League)

The Run Down

As you all know, Detroit epically choked in the final week of the season. Seeing how the Twins were swept out of the playoffs by the Yankees, it’s fair to say the Tigers saved face by missing their chance for the same outcome. But what about the pieces to get to the brink of the playoffs?  The trade for Jarrod Washburn sent one promising pitcher (Mauricio Robles – #24 ranked prospect) and serviceable arm (Luke French) away; acquiring Aubrey Huff cost them another top ranked pitching prospect (#10 Brett Jacobson), granted he was having a pretty marginal year. These trades didn’t cost them their farm, but it didn’t help their playoff push or their future.

With an aging roster (29.9 average age), several key free agents (Placido Polanco, Adam Everett, Washburn, Fernando Rodney, and Brandon Lyon), and the psychological trauma caused by their collapse, the Tigers have a lot of work cut out for them. There isn’t much internal help at shortstop, and only have low minors pitchers who have done above average. Of their major league ready talent, only Scott Sizemore, second base, has even excelled in the minors this year. They have serviceable call ups, but no immediate impact players like they did this year with Rick Porcello (*tangent – I always want to call him Rick Portabello, but I hate mushrooms.). Porcello had a below average strikeout rate (4.7 K/9), good control (2.7 BB/9), and kept the ball on the ground (1.23 GO/AO) this year. Nothing great, but he will need a good defense behind him to do that well again next year. Seeing as the Tigers called him up this year from Advanced-A, there is a possibility of them calling up Casey Crosby next year, who played at Single-A. Having the front half of your rotation consisting of Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson (will he/can he pitch like 2009 in ‘10?) and Rick Porcello is a good thing, but with Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen aging faster than Jose Contreras when he gained a few years with a single sentence, they may have to spend more money in free agency to keep their team above .500 next year because their minors won’t.

Players of Interest
*A number prior to a players name indicates Baseball America’s prospect ranking.

#7 – Scott Sizemore | 2B | AA/AAA | 24 | totals – .308/.390/.503 | 520 AB | .195 ISO | 21/4 SB/CS | 95:64 K:BB
Hitting well at both Double and Triple-A should have Tigers fans excited (though his BABIP was .347 – above average). He is essentially Placido Polanco with the bat – meaning he doesn’t strikeout much or hit many homers, but hits for decent average. He is an average defender and runner. The only other thing to note is he broke his hamate bone (the power sapping wrist injury) in 2008 and only fully recovered this year. If the Tigers don’t sign Polanco, look for Polanco Jr., I mean Scott Sizemore, to get a chance to start at second base next spring.

Brennan Boesch | RF | AA | 24 | .275/.318/.510 | 527 AB | .235 ISO | 11/2 SB/CS | 127:33 K:BB | .318 BABIP
Because of an aging outfield and the fact that Boesch finally broke out this year, makes him worthy to note. He has never hit more than 10 homers in a season or had a full season of a OPS over .700, strikes out too much, doesn’t walk enough, but his numbers weren’t really inflated by BABIP either making this year seem a bit more legit. Look for him to play at Triple-A next year and be a feasible call-up mid-summer if he continues his power hitting ways.

#9 – Dusty Ryan | C | AAA | 24 | .257/.359/.455 | 202 AB | .198 ISO | 64:29 K:BB
#20 – Alex Avila | C | AA | 22 | .264/.365/.450 | 329 AB | .185 ISO | 77:52 K:BB
I want to combined these two catchers because they both got called up this September. Avila went 17 for 61 with 5 homers and Ryan went 4 for 26 with no homers, but went 14 for 44 with two homers last year. Avila is a doubles hitter and a below average defender as he only recently became a catcher (the switch happened in 2008). Ryan is the better defender, but not quite the hitter Avila is. Look for both of them to duke it out for a back-up role in the spring.

#4 – Casey Crosby | SP (LHP) | A | 20 | 10.1 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 104 2/3 IP | 2.41 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | .290 BABIP 50.2 GB% | 36.4 FB% | .203 AVE against
Here is my StU article on him that I wrote at the end of September. I like him a bit more after I noticed that Porcello was only in Advanced-A when he made the majors with worse peripherals. I woudn’t be surprised to see him ranked the Tigers number one prospect going into 2010. Plus, he is a power throwing lefty.

Brayan Villareal | RP (RHP) | 22 | A | 10.3 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 103 1/3 IP | 2.87 ERA | 1.15 WHIP | .324 BABIP | 40.9 GB% | 38.1 FB% | 11 LD% | .230 AVE against
Great strikeout rate, average walk rate, nothing that makes you question his numbers. He’ll probably get promoted to Advanced-A and Double-A next year. If he keeps similar numbers to these next year, he’ll be on everyone’s sleeper list for 2011 and 2010 September call-ups list.

#11 – Casey Fien | RP (RHP) | 25 | AAA | 10.2 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 58 IP | 3.41 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | .310 BABIP | 35.9 GB% | 42.3 FB% | 18.6 LD% | .262 AVE against
Relievers stats are harder to predict year in and year out as they have such a small sample size. He supposedly has a great 91 to 92 MPH sinker, but his ground ball percentage would lead us to think otherwise. He may get a chance to pitch out of the Tigers pen next year with Rodney and/or Lyon leaving/not getting signed. His stuff is nothing to scoff at, but he isn’t an extreme ground ball pitcher or a power pitcher. I would expect him to struggle early if he makes the major league roster out of spring training.

#8 – Cody Satterwhite | RP (RHP) | 22 | AA | 9.5 K/9 | 4.9 BB/9 | 49 1/3 IP | 3.47 ERA | 1.48 WHIP | .318 BABIP | 46.8 GB% | 35.3 FB% | 16.5 LD% | .250 AVE against
Another reliever, but he has a power fastball that ranges between 94 and 97 mph with late movement. He also has a slider and a change up but cannot control either of them very well. Speaking of control, he doesn’t have much of that working for him. He should be promoted to Triple-A next year with serious consideration for the major league roster only if there are injuries or in September.

As the season’s last week is winding down, Scouting the Unknown will be put on hold until pitchers and catchers report to camp in February. Don’t be sad. Why? Because Grey and I have devised a new article to warm your innards during the harsh winter (or if you are in the south – the brisk morning) weather. What is this new article you may ask? Well, it still deals with the minor leagues, but instead of individual players, I will briefly outline all minor league affiliates and their records of the major league team along with key players. The order will be Baseball America’s 2009 farm rankings, reporting the rankings backwards. At first I will write about two teams at a time and eventually be talking about a single team. This means the first two will be Houston and San Diego. If you have any tidbits, advice or other information sections for the article, here is a week heads-up.

Casey Crosby | SP | Detroit Tigers | DOB: 9/17/88 | 6-5 | 200 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right/Left | DET #4 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Has no ratings on Crosby

Thanks to Tommy John surgery, this young lefty has flown under the radar – or maybe it’s the nasty walk rate that is causing the blimp to disappear. Either way, Crosby suffered an elbow injury during instructional league, and within nine months he was throwing a baseball once again. No, this is not a typo; he came back in NINE months. That is rather fast when you consider most players aren’t at full strength until almost two years after the surgery. Baseball America raved about how his athleticism allowed him to come back so quick; specifically noting how he was an All-State pitcher and Wide Receiver at a suburban Chicago prep school.

In throwing a fastball that is clocked between 92 to 94 with a max of 97 (supposedly) with late life and a Circle Change-up that sits between 84 and 86, he is able to induce a high percentage of ground balls (50.2% in ‘09). He also possesses a hard slider that tops out at 87 and a slow sweeping curveball. His delivery was consistently critiqued as clunky and erratic, but still remains deceptive. He lacks polish because of his injury, and because he happens to be pitching where snow and wind is less reliable than Congress. Here is a quick look at his numbers:

08 (R) 3.9 K/9 | 5.8 BB/9 | 4 2/3 IP | 0 HR/9 | 0 ERA | 1.5 WHIP
09 (A) 10.1 K/9 | 4.1 BB\9 | 104 2/3 IP | .3 HR/9 | 2.41 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 50.2 GB%

Throwing aside 2008, his 2009 numbers are slightly about average with a notable negative mark which has plagued him since high school. What is really impressive is that his WHIP could be under one if he was able to cut his walk by a third (or 15 less). The strikeout rate is strong; he keeps the ball in the park; and he is a hard throwing lefty. Some things to watch as he progresses to A+ or possibly AA to start next year is his delivery, his control and pitching more innings each year. With the emergence of Rick Porcello and the return to dominance that Justin Verlander had this year, the Tigers are still in need of viable middle and end of the rotation starters. Crosby is still a full year away from contending for a major league rotation spot. However, his name could be swirling around the July trade deadline (like it was this year) and he could be up around that time next year if all goes well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him vying for a bullpen spot in spring training, but he should stay as a starter for now.

Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh Pirates | DOB: 2/6/87 | 6-2 | 225 lbs | Bats/Throws: Left/Right | PIT #1 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Power (99) | Speed (39) | Contact (33) | Patience (96)

How Pedro Alvarez slipped from my conscious is only known by Freud – or maybe it’s the seventeenth straight losing season that is going on over in Pittsburgh. He would have been the top pick in the 2008 draft, except the Tampa Bay Rays already had Evan Longoria. With an award shelf already overflowing with 2006 Freshman Player of the year and two straight All-American selections at Vanderbilt, Alvarez is on track to keep adding to his impressive accomplishments. Possessing quick hands, great bat speed and stellar plate discipline, he has been compared to Albert Pujols. That is a rather large comparison, but Pittsburgh needs a player of that caliber to work through its minor league system. Drafted as the “future face of the franchise,” and paid handsomely, the Pirates brass have a lot riding on his … well you get the point.

With Steve Pearce manning first base since the trade of Adam LaRoche and Andy LaRoche playing excellent defense with adequate offense at third, I suspect that Pearce will be moved to the bench and either Andy LaRoche or Alvarez will play first. Alvarez has mediocre defensive skills at third and would be at least slightly above average at first. Any way you line it up, when you have Garret “Robot” Jones leading your team in homers with only 292 AB any power addition will be forced into the lineup. Just recently he hit three homers in a game against Chinese Taipei. He hit 49 homer in a little over two and half years at Vanderbilt and has hit like this in the minors:

09 (totals) .288/.378/.535 | 465 AB | 27 HR | 32 2B | 71:129 BB:K
09 (A+) .247/.342/.486 | 243 AB | 14/.239 HR/ISO | 28.8 K% | 13.2 BB%
09 (AA) .33/.419/.590 | 222 AB | 13/.257 HR/ISO | 26.6 K% | 13.3 BB%

It is important to note that he broke his Hamate bone (the power sapping injury for hitters) in his right hand in 2008, which lead to him having reduced power numbers in 2008 at college and removing 23 games from his career. With that said, it may put his splits between high-A and double-A this year into perspective. He started with a poor April and had a decent May. Other than that, it wasn’t until July when he went to double-A Altoona. From that point on, he simply raked. The power is straight legit, the average at the major league level will probably drop down to the .260 to .270 range (Marc Hulet say the .250 to .260 range. His strikeouts are comparable to BJ Upton and Mike Cameron, which isn’t the company I would like, but his walks are essentially the same as Cameron’s though. Matter of fact, Cameron’s plate discipline would nearly mimic what Alvarez has done in the minors so far.

All in all, Alvarez should either be the Pirates starting first baseman or third baseman to start the 2010 season. However, with all teams being arbitration pansies, he will probably be called up in June. If the Pirates want fans to actually show up next year they should have him start from day one. I personally think he will struggle for a few weeks up and then go off like Longoria his rookie year. Yes, this is hyping him early, but I would take him over Posey, Heyward, and Smoak. Trust the Alvar-tros Pirate!