2011 didn’t deplete the Tigers pipeline too terribly, as most of their top guys are still around. Dan Schlereth had a nice year out of the bullpen for the Tigers, and a few others (Sizemore, Furbush) made impacts with other big league clubs after being traded. The shuffling, though, didn’t do much to alter the complexion of the farm system. Offensively, Detroit is pretty well set for 2012. There could be a void in left field if Delmon Young signs elsewhere, but I imagine they’d try to fill that slot with an impact bat via free agency, rather than through their system. The Tigers will, however, have an opening in their starting rotation. And while it appears that top prospect Jacob Turner has a firm grip on that role, there are a number of promising starters in Detroit’s minor leagues and it isn’t fair to rule anyone out just yet.
Arizona Fall League Players – Salt River Rafters
Casey Crosby (RHP); Andrew Oliver (LHP); Tyler Stohr (LHP); Rob Waite (RHP); Rob Brantly (C); Dixon Machado (SS); Hernan Perez (2B)
Graduated Prospects
Andy Dirks (OF); Danny Worth (3B); Dan Schlereth (LHP); Al Alburquerque (RHP)
There’s still a possibility that Turner will be back in AAA to start 2012, but it seems more likely that he’ll begin the 2012 season in the Detroit rotation. His stuff isn’t as overwhelming as you might expect from the organization’s top prospect, but he mixes four pitches well and displays advanced command. Suffice to say, Turner will make an impact in 2012 and should be considered in all formats on draft day.
Crosby has progressed rather slowly due to injury/surgery. But the 23-year-old lefty bounced back nicely in 2011, pitching 130+ innings at AA. His command is a very shaky and he definitely needs to spend some time at AAA, but if he can cut down on the walks (5.26 BB/9 in 2011) and continue to keep balls in the park, he could get a chance at starts during some point in 2012, especially if Turner struggles.
Oliver will also be in the mix as a possible 5th starter in 2012. The lefty might have the best fastball (93-95) among Detroit’s prospects at SP, and his effortless delivery only serves to accentuate already ample velocity. Oliver is a fly ball pitcher, which can be an issue, but Comerica is spacious enough to alleviate most of that concern.
A couple of things are holding Strieby back: an atrocious K% (30.7% at AAA in 2011), and Miggy Cabrera. Detroit has experimented with him in left field, but there’s little doubt that Strieby is a liability anywhere other than 1B or DH. If the Tigers do not retain Delmon Young, and if Strieby can balance his K/BB and maintain his power (19 HR in 2011), Detroit might be forced to consider him.
His fantasy relevance is likely not until 2013, but as Detroit’s most exciting hitting prospect, I feel compelled to mention him. With a beautifully level swing to go along with quick hands, the Tigers are hoping that Castellanos will start turning doubles into homers at High-A (or AA) in 2012 – he had 36 doubles and only 7 HR in 2011 at Low-A. He hits the ball hard, though (.402 BABIP), and he’ll definitely be an interesting prospect to keep an eye on.
Smyly doesn’t have the stuff that Turner, Crosby or Oliver do, but I love the fact that his last name lacks all traditional vowels. He’s also got superior command than the aforementioned, to go along with well-refined secondary pitches.
Detroit moved Voss to a starting role in 2011, and the change appears to have been effective. In just about 150 IP between A+ and AA, Voss showed nice command with a K/BB right about 3. The innings increase is concerning (just 67.1 IP in 2010), but Voss’s slider is advanced and can miss bats at any level. Keep an eye on him as a dark horse for starts in the 5th spot of Detroit’s rotation.
Below is an MLB-ready lefty with repertoire featuring four pitches (fastball, cutter, curveball & changeup), which he mixes well. He most probably fits in with the Detroit bullpen in 2012, but he’s a career starter (including two starts with the Tigers in ’11) and could be a safe option for the 5th starter spot if guys ahead of him falter.
The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late off-season shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. See Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, Part I for the complete list.
26. Trevor Bauer – RHP (SP) – ARI: Considered MLB-ready outta the gate when drafted in June 2011. Keith Law’s pre-draft scouting report indicates, “[His] fastball-curveball combination is [...] big league-caliber … shown he can get deep into games with regularity despite the lack of prototypical physicality. His heavy college workload — topping 130 pitches in the majority of his starts this spring [2011] … [workload] could impact whether he helps the Arizona Diamondbacks this season or what role in which that would come.” He has a plus-fastball sits between 92 to 95 MPH with good life and a 12-to-6 plus-curveball. His changeup needs work. Control and command is spotty and inconsistent, typically derived from overthrowing. Mechanically the only true concern is him locking his left knee upon delivery of the baseball. There is concern of possible knee injuries in the future. Beyond this quibble, his stuff is not in question, it is his combination of control and command, being overworked in college, and possible mechanically driven medical concern.
27. Martin Perez – LHP (SP) – TEX: Texas is loaded at pitcher, but you can never have enough young arms. Perez followed up a poor 2010 in Double-A with improved numbers across the board at Double-A but a regression in production when promoted to Triple-A. I see a midseason call-up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
28. Garrett Richards – LHP (SP) – ATL: The Angels gave Richards two spot starts in 2011 in which he struggled. Prior to 2011 and before reaching more advanced hitters (read: before Double-A), he was able to produce high strikeout rates. In 2011, at Double-A, Richards strikeout rates plummeted from mid-9 K/9 to 6.5 K/9. Projects as a mid-rotation starter who pitches to contact or a power reliever.
29. Zack Cox – 3B – St.L: David Freese is not the answer for the Cardinals at third base. The 22-year-old Cox had an excellent 2011 season. In 344 Double-A at-bats he slashed .294/.357/.436 with 29 XBH (10 Hr) and a 69:29 K:BB ratio. Is considered a “gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness.” Offensively reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.
30. Kyle Seager – 2B/3B – SEA: By the end of the season, his rookie eligibility may be void. The Mariners hot-corner hasn’t been the same since Adrian Beltre left. Seager has the flexibility to play multiple positions. Barring an injury, would get the nod over Alex Liddi at this point. Seager has shown to be of average power – gap mostly – produces a decent average and the occasional stolen base.
31. Eric Surkamp – LHP (SP) – SF: Earlier this year, I said, “Surkamp is a soft-tossing lefty … Fastball sits in the upper 80s with heavy sinking action. Changeup and curveball are both plus pitches. Has a three-quarter delivery that creates good deception and he has strong command of all his pitches.”
32. Bryce Harper – RF – WAS: The hype will start early in April and build to a crescendo in June. I don’t think he’ll be up before August at the earliest. I’d expect Mike Trout-type results upon his first call-up. In his prime, I think he’ll be similar to Ryan Braun in his prime. This is all assuming no major setbacks or injuries in 2012.
33. Jake Odorriz – RHP (SP) – KC: The Royals are loaded with pitching prospects. As exemplified by Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins’ 2011 call-ups, the Royals 2012 roster should see a heavy turnover, especially at pitcher. Will start out of the gate or be a June call up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
34. Joe Benson – OF – MIN: The Twins best power hitting prospect. Injury prone. When healthy has shown strong plate discipline, above-average power (25 to 30 home run ceiling), and ability to steal the occasional base. He’s a Hunter Pence with a slightly lower average and a few less steals, if/when healthy.
35. John Lamb – LHP (SP) – KC: See half-inch above in the Odorizzi blurb. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
36. Chris Marrero – 1B – WAS: With Mike Morse coming into his own in 2011, the Nationals will not have to rush Marrero into the starting lineup. He’s proven himself at each level. In his prime, projects as a mid-20 home run hitter. Currently, I would expect a Freddie Freeman-type rookie season: .291/.352/.461 and high-teen home runs over a full season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
37. Dellin Betances – RHP (SP) – NYY: As the Yankees best pitching prospect, high expectations will be placed on him, especially with the recent back-end rotation woes for the Bronx Bombers. June call-up looks to be in place. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
38. Liam Hendriks – RHP (SP) – MIN: With Kyle Gibson’s injury concern, Hendriks becomes the next best pitching prospect ready for the show in Minnesota. Not that the Twins will rush him, but their rotation is easily trumped by the Braves Triple-A rotation. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
39. Mike Montgomery – LHP (SP) – KC: Will need to improve command, limit walks and gain more consistency to be more than an AL-Only add. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
40. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – RF – NYM: To quote my Scouting article, “possesses good all-around, broad skill-set played at a balls-to-the-wall approach. Meaning, he has all tools ranging from fringe-average to average tools that make him a solid player but unspectacular at any specific skill. Hitting approach is strong, attempting to utilize all fields and working the count. Still projects as a .270 hitter with gap power within his line-drive swing.” Strikeouts will always be a concern. He’s one Angel Pagan injury away from seeing significant playing time in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
41. Steve Lombardozzi – 2B/IF – WAS: The Nationals were unwilling to give him up in a trade for Denard Span. Of course they did, they are the same player but at different positions.
42. Robbie Erlin – LHP (SP) – SD: Good strikeout potential, excellent future home ballpark, and amazing control. Yes, please. Listed lower than my praise because I don’t see the Padres rushing him to the majors.
43. Neil Ramirez – RHP (SP) – TEX: Similar to Erlin, I see the Rangers allow him to accumulate more experience at Triple-A. He started the 2011 season at High-A and was promoted to Triple-A and then demoted to Double-A. Needs to improve command. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
44. Andrew Oliver – LHP (SP) – DET: I think he gets pushed to the bullpen due to inconsistency and command concerns. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
45. Matt Dominguez – 3B – FLA: A strong NL-only and deep league play. He’ll sustain his major league career through his excellent defensive skills not his average-at-best bat. Projects to be a .260 hitter with average power (15 home runs). So David Freese.
46. Jaff Decker – LF – SD: At some point, his old-player skill-set (power and walks with poor defense) will catch up to his prospect value. Currently, I see him being a similar type of player as Jack Cust. That’s both a compliment and a red flag. May need to traded to an AL team to play DH. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
47. Casey Kelly – RHP (SP) – SD: Similar predicament to Robbie Erlin, but without strikeout potential – not even close. His home park causes his value to rise. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
48. Grant Green – SS – OAK: Cliff Pennington is keeping the spot warm for the future A’s shortstop. Better gap power than home run power (projects as average power), strong average, an occasional steal. Defensively, question marks are raise about his efficiency. Think a .300 hitter with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 steals from shortstop over the course of the season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
49. Nick Franklin – SS – SEA: Injuries slowed his 2011 season down. Projects for a .280, 12 to 15 home run and 10 steal player. He plays good defense, has a smooth swing and average speed. His 2010 season was bolstered by his environment (California League). With Dustin Ackley manning second, Franklin appears to remain at shortstop. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
50. Travis d’Arnaud – C – TOR: Won the Eastern League MVP with the following slash line: .311/.371/.542 with 55 XBH (21 Hr) and a 100:33 K:BB ratio. Is blocked by J.P. Arencibia at the major league level. Travis d’Arnaud plays much better defense and makes better contact than Arencibia. The power potential is not the same with d’Arnaud, but he could easily hit between 15 and 20 home runs in his rookie year given a full seasons of at-bats (~400). However, that number of at-bats is highly unlikely, more likely to receive 250 at-bats. In that time frame, he could have 5 to 8 home runs with a digestible average.
Extra 51. Josh Vitters – 3B – CHC: Hitting wise, I consider him similar to Delmon Young: swings early and often, relies on pedigree and natural talent, is inconsistent. Defensively he is superior to Young. Aramis Ramirez has shown to be injury prone two of the last three years. Cub fans may finally see their 2007 first round pick. Keep in mind he is turned only 22 on August 27th. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
Late Scratch Kyle Gibson – RHP (SP) – MIN: He would be a top 15 fantasy prospect if he wasn’t having Tommy John Surgery after injuring his elbow. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on September 1, 2011, “Gibson will have reconstructive surgery on his elbow after the initial phase of his rehabilitation program did not go well … surgery [was performed 9/7/11] in New York, … surgery done by Mets team physician, Dr. David Altcheck, who also operated on Joe Nathan’s elbow last year.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard a pitcher who’s pitching elbow hurt significantly successfully complete rehab without TJ Surgery. Twins fans hope that the Mets medical staff doesn’t advise on the healing process either. Then again, Joe Mauer had “bi-lateral leg soreness” for a month. Not sure where Dr. James Andrew (a.k.a Dr. Freeze) was in the whole conversation. Gibson was shutdown early August with elbow tenderness. Statistically, it appeared that his injury may have been lingering since early July. Not relevant until 2013. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
Honorable Mentions In no particular order Nick Weglarz (RF, CLE); Casey Crosby (LHP, DET); Trevor Bauer (RHP, ARI); LJ Hoes (2B, BAL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU); Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD); Carlos Triunfel (SS, SEA); Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TOR); Anthony Gose (OF, TOR); Yasmani Grandal (C, CIN); Chris Archer (TB) (RHP, TB); Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT); Tony Sanchez (C, PIT); Austin Hyatt(RHP, PHI), Michael Taylor (RF, OAK); Chris Withrow (LHP, LAD); Lars Anderson (1B, BOS); Brandon Guyer (OF, TB); Deck McGuire (RHP, TOR); Simon Castro (RHP, SD); Trevor May (RHP, PHI); Jake McGee (LHP, TB); Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM); Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL); David Cooper (1B, TOR); Austin Romine (C, NYY); Tom Milone (LHP, WAS); Clint Robinson (1B, KC); David Lough (OF, KC); Tim Wheeler (LF/RF, COL); Alex Liddi (3B, SEA); Adrian Cardenas (2B/MI, OAK); Alex Torres (RHP, TB); Rudy Owens (LHP, PIT); Tanner Scheppers (RHP, TEX); Starling Marte (CF, PIT); Matt Adams (1B, St.L); Jose Iglesias (SS, BOS); Carlos Peguero (LF, SEA); Chris Parmelee (1B, MIN); Caleb Gindl (RF, MIL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU)
Detroit Tigers 2009 Minor Review
Overall farm talent ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (28) | 2008 (29) | 2007 (14) | 2006 (13) | 2005 (29) | 2004 (22)
Record of Major League Team and Affiliate
Majors: 86 – 77 (AL Central)
AAA: 73 – 70 (International League)
AA: 71 – 70 (Eastern League)
A+: 55 – 75 (Florida League)
A: 81 – 59 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 35 – 39 (New York / Pennsylvania League)
R: 29 – 30 (Gulf League)
The Run Down
As you all know, Detroit epically choked in the final week of the season. Seeing how the Twins were swept out of the playoffs by the Yankees, it’s fair to say the Tigers saved face by missing their chance for the same outcome. But what about the pieces to get to the brink of the playoffs? The trade for Jarrod Washburn sent one promising pitcher (Mauricio Robles – #24 ranked prospect) and serviceable arm (Luke French) away; acquiring Aubrey Huff cost them another top ranked pitching prospect (#10 Brett Jacobson), granted he was having a pretty marginal year. These trades didn’t cost them their farm, but it didn’t help their playoff push or their future.
With an aging roster (29.9 average age), several key free agents (Placido Polanco, Adam Everett, Washburn, Fernando Rodney, and Brandon Lyon), and the psychological trauma caused by their collapse, the Tigers have a lot of work cut out for them. There isn’t much internal help at shortstop, and only have low minors pitchers who have done above average. Of their major league ready talent, only Scott Sizemore, second base, has even excelled in the minors this year. They have serviceable call ups, but no immediate impact players like they did this year with Rick Porcello (*tangent – I always want to call him Rick Portabello, but I hate mushrooms.). Porcello had a below average strikeout rate (4.7 K/9), good control (2.7 BB/9), and kept the ball on the ground (1.23 GO/AO) this year. Nothing great, but he will need a good defense behind him to do that well again next year. Seeing as the Tigers called him up this year from Advanced-A, there is a possibility of them calling up Casey Crosby next year, who played at Single-A. Having the front half of your rotation consisting of Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson (will he/can he pitch like 2009 in ’10?) and Rick Porcello is a good thing, but with Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen aging faster than Jose Contreras when he gained a few years with a single sentence, they may have to spend more money in free agency to keep their team above .500 next year because their minors won’t.
Players of Interest *A number prior to a players name indicates Baseball America’s prospect ranking.
#7 – Scott Sizemore | 2B | AA/AAA | 24 | totals – .308/.390/.503 | 520 AB | .195 ISO | 21/4 SB/CS | 95:64 K:BB
Hitting well at both Double and Triple-A should have Tigers fans excited (though his BABIP was .347 – above average). He is essentially Placido Polanco with the bat – meaning he doesn’t strikeout much or hit many homers, but hits for decent average. He is an average defender and runner. The only other thing to note is he broke his hamate bone (the power sapping wrist injury) in 2008 and only fully recovered this year. If the Tigers don’t sign Polanco, look for Polanco Jr., I mean Scott Sizemore, to get a chance to start at second base next spring.
Brennan Boesch | RF | AA | 24 | .275/.318/.510 | 527 AB | .235 ISO | 11/2 SB/CS | 127:33 K:BB | .318 BABIP
Because of an aging outfield and the fact that Boesch finally broke out this year, makes him worthy to note. He has never hit more than 10 homers in a season or had a full season of a OPS over .700, strikes out too much, doesn’t walk enough, but his numbers weren’t really inflated by BABIP either making this year seem a bit more legit. Look for him to play at Triple-A next year and be a feasible call-up mid-summer if he continues his power hitting ways.
#9 – Dusty Ryan | C | AAA | 24 | .257/.359/.455 | 202 AB | .198 ISO | 64:29 K:BB #20 – Alex Avila | C | AA | 22 | .264/.365/.450 | 329 AB | .185 ISO | 77:52 K:BB
I want to combined these two catchers because they both got called up this September. Avila went 17 for 61 with 5 homers and Ryan went 4 for 26 with no homers, but went 14 for 44 with two homers last year. Avila is a doubles hitter and a below average defender as he only recently became a catcher (the switch happened in 2008). Ryan is the better defender, but not quite the hitter Avila is. Look for both of them to duke it out for a back-up role in the spring.
#4 – Casey Crosby | SP (LHP) | A | 20 | 10.1 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 104 2/3 IP | 2.41 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | .290 BABIP 50.2 GB% | 36.4 FB% | .203 AVE against
Here is my StU article on him that I wrote at the end of September. I like him a bit more after I noticed that Porcello was only in Advanced-A when he made the majors with worse peripherals. I woudn’t be surprised to see him ranked the Tigers number one prospect going into 2010. Plus, he is a power throwing lefty.
Brayan Villareal | RP (RHP) | 22 | A | 10.3 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 103 1/3 IP | 2.87 ERA | 1.15 WHIP | .324 BABIP | 40.9 GB% | 38.1 FB% | 11 LD% | .230 AVE against
Great strikeout rate, average walk rate, nothing that makes you question his numbers. He’ll probably get promoted to Advanced-A and Double-A next year. If he keeps similar numbers to these next year, he’ll be on everyone’s sleeper list for 2011 and 2010 September call-ups list.
#11 – Casey Fien | RP (RHP) | 25 | AAA | 10.2 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 58 IP | 3.41 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | .310 BABIP | 35.9 GB% | 42.3 FB% | 18.6 LD% | .262 AVE against
Relievers stats are harder to predict year in and year out as they have such a small sample size. He supposedly has a great 91 to 92 MPH sinker, but his ground ball percentage would lead us to think otherwise. He may get a chance to pitch out of the Tigers pen next year with Rodney and/or Lyon leaving/not getting signed. His stuff is nothing to scoff at, but he isn’t an extreme ground ball pitcher or a power pitcher. I would expect him to struggle early if he makes the major league roster out of spring training.
#8 – Cody Satterwhite | RP (RHP) | 22 | AA | 9.5 K/9 | 4.9 BB/9 | 49 1/3 IP | 3.47 ERA | 1.48 WHIP | .318 BABIP | 46.8 GB% | 35.3 FB% | 16.5 LD% | .250 AVE against
Another reliever, but he has a power fastball that ranges between 94 and 97 mph with late movement. He also has a slider and a change up but cannot control either of them very well. Speaking of control, he doesn’t have much of that working for him. He should be promoted to Triple-A next year with serious consideration for the major league roster only if there are injuries or in September.
As the season’s last week is winding down, Scouting the Unknown will be put on hold until pitchers and catchers report to camp in February. Don’t be sad. Why? Because Grey and I have devised a new article to warm your innards during the harsh winter (or if you are in the south – the brisk morning) weather. What is this new article you may ask? Well, it still deals with the minor leagues, but instead of individual players, I will briefly outline all minor league affiliates and their records of the major league team along with key players. The order will be Baseball America’s 2009 farm rankings, reporting the rankings backwards. At first I will write about two teams at a time and eventually be talking about a single team. This means the first two will be Houston and San Diego. If you have any tidbits, advice or other information sections for the article, here is a week heads-up.
Casey Crosby | SP | Detroit Tigers | DOB: 9/17/88 | 6-5 | 200 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right/Left | DET #4 ranked prospect according to Baseball America The Cube: Has no ratings on Crosby
Thanks to Tommy John surgery, this young lefty has flown under the radar – or maybe it’s the nasty walk rate that is causing the blimp to disappear. Either way, Crosby suffered an elbow injury during instructional league, and within nine months he was throwing a baseball once again. No, this is not a typo; he came back in NINE months. That is rather fast when you consider most players aren’t at full strength until almost two years after the surgery. Baseball America raved about how his athleticism allowed him to come back so quick; specifically noting how he was an All-State pitcher and Wide Receiver at a suburban Chicago prep school.
In throwing a fastball that is clocked between 92 to 94 with a max of 97 (supposedly) with late life and a Circle Change-up that sits between 84 and 86, he is able to induce a high percentage of ground balls (50.2% in ’09). He also possesses a hard slider that tops out at 87 and a slow sweeping curveball. His delivery was consistently critiqued as clunky and erratic, but still remains deceptive. He lacks polish because of his injury, and because he happens to be pitching where snow and wind is less reliable than Congress. Here is a quick look at his numbers:
Throwing aside 2008, his 2009 numbers are slightly about average with a notable negative mark which has plagued him since high school. What is really impressive is that his WHIP could be under one if he was able to cut his walk by a third (or 15 less). The strikeout rate is strong; he keeps the ball in the park; and he is a hard throwing lefty. Some things to watch as he progresses to A+ or possibly AA to start next year is his delivery, his control and pitching more innings each year. With the emergence of Rick Porcello and the return to dominance that Justin Verlander had this year, the Tigers are still in need of viable middle and end of the rotation starters. Crosby is still a full year away from contending for a major league rotation spot. However, his name could be swirling around the July trade deadline (like it was this year) and he could be up around that time next year if all goes well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him vying for a bullpen spot in spring training, but he should stay as a starter for now.
Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh Pirates | DOB: 2/6/87 | 6-2 | 225 lbs | Bats/Throws: Left/Right | PIT #1 ranked prospect according to Baseball America The Cube: Power (99) | Speed (39) | Contact (33) | Patience (96)
How Pedro Alvarez slipped from my conscious is only known by Freud – or maybe it’s the seventeenth straight losing season that is going on over in Pittsburgh. He would have been the top pick in the 2008 draft, except the Tampa Bay Rays already had Evan Longoria. With an award shelf already overflowing with 2006 Freshman Player of the year and two straight All-American selections at Vanderbilt, Alvarez is on track to keep adding to his impressive accomplishments. Possessing quick hands, great bat speed and stellar plate discipline, he has been compared to Albert Pujols. That is a rather large comparison, but Pittsburgh needs a player of that caliber to work through its minor league system. Drafted as the “future face of the franchise,” and paid handsomely, the Pirates brass have a lot riding on his … well you get the point.
With Steve Pearce manning first base since the trade of Adam LaRoche and Andy LaRoche playing excellent defense with adequate offense at third, I suspect that Pearce will be moved to the bench and either Andy LaRoche or Alvarez will play first. Alvarez has mediocre defensive skills at third and would be at least slightly above average at first. Any way you line it up, when you have Garret “Robot” Jones leading your team in homers with only 292 AB any power addition will be forced into the lineup. Just recently he hit three homers in a game against Chinese Taipei. He hit 49 homer in a little over two and half years at Vanderbilt and has hit like this in the minors:
It is important to note that he broke his Hamate bone (the power sapping injury for hitters) in his right hand in 2008, which lead to him having reduced power numbers in 2008 at college and removing 23 games from his career. With that said, it may put his splits between high-A and double-A this year into perspective. He started with a poor April and had a decent May. Other than that, it wasn’t until July when he went to double-A Altoona. From that point on, he simply raked. The power is straight legit, the average at the major league level will probably drop down to the .260 to .270 range (Marc Hulet say the .250 to .260 range. His strikeouts are comparable to BJ Upton and Mike Cameron, which isn’t the company I would like, but his walks are essentially the same as Cameron’s though. Matter of fact, Cameron’s plate discipline would nearly mimic what Alvarez has done in the minors so far.
All in all, Alvarez should either be the Pirates starting first baseman or third baseman to start the 2010 season. However, with all teams being arbitration pansies, he will probably be called up in June. If the Pirates want fans to actually show up next year they should have him start from day one. I personally think he will struggle for a few weeks up and then go off like Longoria his rookie year. Yes, this is hyping him early, but I would take him over Posey, Heyward, and Smoak. Trust the Alvar-tros Pirate!
