Fantasy owners can be fickle. Can we not? Fickle as a pickle. Hang on…
Sorry, had to get the computer back from my grandmother. While the saying may be as lame as Facebook is to a High Schooler, the initial verbiage is somewhat true. Chris Archer? Aah, he sucks now. Matt Shoemaker? He’s awful! Cole Hamels? Those peripherals just scream regression. Or how about the rook Michael Fulmer. Y’all see his first four starts? 19.1 IP, 14 ER?!? Send him back down! Listen, sometimes a quick trigger is the right move (see: Sonny Gray early in the season), but often times, as it is with the four names just mentioned, the overzealous hyper-anxious fickle nature of the tiny past 14 days window can bring with it a big #facepalm a week later. All four of those pitchers took the mound this past Friday night. Here’s what being fickle gets you:
Archer: 6.0IP/6H/3ER/3BB/8K
Hamels: 7.0IP/3H/0ER/3BB/6K
Shoemaker: 6.0IP/6H/1ER/1BB/7K
Fulmer: 5.2IP/5H/1ER/4BB/5K (1st ER in last five starts, just the 2nd in his last 40 IP)
I’m pretty sure you’d take all of those, yet some of you may have jumped ship back in April. See, no reason to worry. And one more name that the same deep breath should be practiced towards this week: Aaron Nola.
Nola has been phenomenal for the surpassingly future-is-bright Phillies this year. He carries a 3.51 ERA into this week’s slate, and that’s after his past two starts being purely dismal with a combined slash of: 6.2IP/15H/10ER/4BB/8K. Brutal. But don’t you dare let that raise your blood pressure, especially for this week.
Yes, he’s had two straight horrible outings, but that’s on the heels of nine straight quality starts with 6 or more Ks in all but one of them. An even better reason to love your some Nola this week (and no, I’m not talking about the Taints…Falcons fan here)? He’s on the road twice. Check his home/road splits:
Home: 41.0IP/4.83ERA/1.41WHIP
Road: 43.2IP/2.27ERA/0.87WHIP
Now I don’t believe we have a reverse 2015 Dallas Keuchel on our hands, as his home stats are inflated from his last start, but I’m most certainly relying on him for stellar numbers on the road. Give him the visitors bench against the Twins and the Giants? Even better! No worries on young Aaron, folks. He’s no foofoo like Robin Arryn. Eat the fickle pickle, and don’t worry about that little guy.
Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors represent worst 8 or best 8 opponents according to team wOBA for last 14 days.
THE BEST – Somehow Kershaw and Bumgarner have gotten even better this year, while guys like Lackey and Cueto continue to defy the projections and impress. Nola sneaks in to the group he probably doesn’t deserve to be amongst quite yet. But did you read above?
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw (LAD) | WAS, @PIT | 1.58/0.65 | 11.08/0.58 |
| Noah Syndergaard (NYM) | KC, @ATL | 2.00/1.84 | 11.15/1.41 |
| Madison Bumgarner (SF) | @PIT, PHI | 1.91/2.92 | 10.24/2.49 |
| Johnny Cueto (SF) | @PIT, PHI | 2.16/2.56 | 7.62/1.79 |
| Stephen Strasburg (WAS) | @LAD, @MIL | 3.03/2.77 | 11.51/2.41 |
| John Lackey (CHC) | STL, @MIA | 2.66/2.98 | 9.31/2.15 |
| Chris Sale (CHW) | @BOS, TOR | 2.87/3.39 | 8.51/1.88 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | @MIN, @SF | 3.51/3.07 | 9.89/2.02 |
THE REPLICAS – Just the two of us. We can make it if we try. Just the two of us. Well, they’ll need to try hard against some tough lineups, but I love what Verlander and Hammel bring nearly every outing.
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander (DET) | SEA, CLE | 3.87/3.52 | 9.39/2.42 |
| Jason Hammel (CHC) | STL, @MIA | 2.25/3.35 | 7.61/2.85 |
THE STANDARDS – Snell’s the name I’m really intrigued to watch in this tier this week. Two tough road matchups should show us what to expect the rest of the season from him. While none of the rest from this bunch blow you away, they’ve performed well enough this year and lately to garner a roster spot by taking the mound part deux.
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Wright (BOS) | CHW, @TEX | 2.09/3.21 | 7.68/3.62 |
| Kevin Gausman (BAL) | @TEX, TB | 3.45/4.34 | 8.10/2.25 |
| Blake Snell (TB) | @CLE, @BAL | 2.16/2.42 | 9.72/4.32 |
| Ian Kennedy (KC) | @NYM, HOU | 4.06/5.14 | 8.37/3.17 |
| Nathan Karns (SEA) | @DET, STL | 4.09/3.69 | 9.14/4.23 |
| Jaime Garcia (STL) | @CHC, @SEA | 3.93/3.56 | 7.49/2.97 |
| James Paxton (SEA) | @DET, STL | 2.25/3.32 | 13.50/2.25 |
| Josh Tomlin (CLE) | TB, @DET | 3.27/4.38 | 6.05/0.85 |
| Doug Fister (HOU) | LAA, @KC | 3.26/4.75 | 5.63/2.93 |
THE KNOCKOFFS – When somebody tries to tell me that Sonny Gray is an Ace…
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray (OAK) | MIL, @LAA | 5.34/4.74 | 7.42/3.86 |
| Drew Smyly (TB) | @CLE, @BAL | 4.94/4.37 | 9.76/2.41 |
| Archie Bradley (ARI) | @PHI, @COL | 5.66/5.04 | 10.03/4.63 |
| Patrick Corbin (ARI) | @TOR, @COL | 4.76/4.58 | 6.88/2.75 |
| Juan Nicasio (PIT) | SF, LAD | 5.34/4.40 | 9.15/3.81 |
| Anthony DeSclafani (CIN) | @TEX, SD | 1.50/6.63 | 3.00/4.50 |
| Bud Norris (ATL) | @MIA, NYM | 4.75/4.60 | 6.62/4.08 |
| Tyler Duffey (SF) | PHI, @NYY | 5.56/4.09 | 7.78/2.22 |
| Chad Bettis (COL) | @NYY, ARI | 5.85/4.77 | 6.59/2.36 |
The 
– The emoji says it all.
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Koehler (MIA) | COL, CHC | 4.25/3.92 | 7.38/4.75 |
| Jhoulys Chacin (LAA) | @HOU, OAK | 5.00/3.96 | 6.98/2.90 |
| Miguel Gonzalez (CHW) | @BOS, TOR | 4.74/4.36 | 7.63/3.92 |
| Jeff Locke (PIT) | SF, LAD | 5.38/5.25 | 4.63/3.38 |
| Derek Holland (TEX) | BAL, BOS | 4.87/4.80 | 5.01/2.78 |
| Hector Santiago (LAA) | @HOU, OAK | 5.64/5.50 | 7.79/3.76 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) | CHW, @TEX | 6.97/7.06 | 5.23/3.92 |
| Jorge De La Rosa (COL) | @MIA, ARI | 7.61/5.50 | 9.82/4.17 |
| Mike Pelfrey (DET) | SEA, CLE | 4.79/5.37 | 4.42/3.79 |
| Luis Perdomo (SD) | @BAL, @CIN | 9.50/5.68 | 7.75/4.75 |
All players listed are projected for two starts, and this list is subject to changes after the article is posted.
Enjoy your weekend and good luck in Week 12! Drop your comments, tell me where I’m wrong, give me your favorite Super Troopers quotes/scenes, and check back next Saturday for Week 13!
