Greetings and salutations, barflys. In a couple days, I’m sure the majority of you will be grilling hotdogs, attending parades, drinkin’ brewskis, maybe seeing some fireworks or– here’s a novel idea– a baseball game. But until then, we have some fantasy rosters to set.
It came up in the comments last week so I thought I’d put it here: this column is specifically about leagues (like the Main Event on NFBC, for instance) where lineup changes, at least for pitchers, are allowed just once a week, and once the first pitch of a team’s first game of the week comes, those players are locked, whether on your bench or in your lineup.
So my scoring and recommendations are based around that concept. That you can’t pick-and-choose a pitcher’s starts in a week: you need to commit to both of them or neither of them. If you can make daily changes, or even one extra change sometime during the week, then do it, and look at each matchup individually. But this column is all about helping out the folks who can’t do that.
That work? Cool. This week’s “Point of Reference” is Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman, who would top The Well with his one start. As for the rest of the double-dippers this week, why don’t you and I dive right in?
Pitchers’ projected starts for the next week are sourced from Rudy Gamble’s Streamonator as of the update at 11:05am Eastern.
The bold pitchers below are the most extreme version of each section. The best of the Top Shelf, the safest of the Well, the worst of the Bar Mat.
The Top Shelf
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Webb, SF | SEA(MO) | COL(SU) |
| Joe Ryan, MIN | KC(MO) | BAL(SU) |
| Clayton Kershaw, LAD | PIT(MO) | LAA(SA) |
| Blake Snell, SD | LAA(MO) | NYM(SU) |
| Shane Bieber, CLE | ATL(TU) | KC(SU) |
| Jesus Luzardo, MIA | STL(TU) | PHI(SU) |
| Lucas Giolito, CHW | TOR(TU) | STL(SU) |
| Aaron Nola, PHI | @TB(TU) | @MIA(SU) |
| Zach Eflin, TB | PHI(TU) | ATL(SU) |
| Logan Gilbert, SEA | @SF(TU) | @HOU(SU) |
| J.P. France, HOU | COL(TU) | SEA(SU) |
Notes
- You’ll see as we go along that this week is very “bottom heavy” when it comes to two-start pitchers. The cream of the crop is a very small group, so buyer beware. Not that you’d be benching Logan Webb or Joe Ryan for any reason anyway…
The Well
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman, TOR | DET(SA) | Point of Reference |
| Cristian Javier, HOU | @TEX(MO) | SEA(SA) |
| Gavin Williams, CLE | ATL(MO) | KC(SA) |
| Domingo German, NYY | BAL(MO) | CHC(SA) |
| Tyler Wells, BAL | @NYY(MO) | @MIN (SA) |
| Tarik Skubal, DET | OAK(TU) | TOR(SU) |
| Bryan Woo, SEA | @SF(MO) | @HOU(SA) |
| Kodai Senga, NYM | @ARI(TU) | @SD(SU) |
| Clarke Schmidt, NYY | BAL(TU) | CHC(SU) |
| Braxton Garrett, MIA | STL(MO) | PHI(SA) |
Notes
- A very small group of middle-of-the-roaders. The other “Point of Reference” this week that would also top this list ahead of any of the actual two-starters is the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole.
The Bar Mat
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Teheran, MIL | CHC(MO) | CIN(SU) |
| Mitch Keller, PIT | @LAD(MO) | @ARI(SA) |
| JP Sears, OAK | @DET(TU) | @BOS(SU) |
| Patrick Corbin, WSH | CIN(TU) | TEX(SU) |
| Miles Mikolas, STL | @MIA(MO) | @CHW(SA) |
| Luke Weaver, CIN | @WSH(MO) | @MIL(SA) |
| Martin Perez, TEX | HOU(MO) | @WSH(SA) |
| Drew Smyly, CHC | @MIL(MO) | @NYY(SA) |
| Kyle Gibson, BAL | @NYY(TU) | @MIN (SU) |
| Dane Dunning, TEX | @BOS(TU) | @WSH(SU) |
| Kyle Hendricks, CHC | @MIL(TU) | @NYY(SU) |
| Bryce Elder, ATL | @CLE(MO) | @TB(SU) |
| Jake Irvin, WSH | CIN(MO) | TEX(SA) |
| Zach Davies, ARI | NYM(TU) | PIT(SU) |
| Zack Greinke, KC | @MIN (TU) | @CLE(SU) |
| Trevor Richards, TOR | @CHW(TU) | @DET(SU) |
| Luis L. Ortiz, PIT | @LAD(TU) | @ARI(SU) |
| Kyle Freeland, COL | @HOU(TU) | @SF(SU) |
| Adam Wainwright, STL | @MIA(TU) | @CHW(SU) |
| Justin Garza, BOS | TEX(TU) | OAK(SU) |
| Eduardo Salazar, CIN | @WSH(TU) | @MIL(SU) |
| Austin Cox, KC | @MIN (MO) | @CLE(SA) |
Notes
- Holy crap. That’s a lot of names. Generally I’d say bench all these dudes. The bolds, especially, are expected to produce negative value according to Rudy Gamble’s Streamonator, which makes them literally more valuable on your bench.
