Rolling In The Deep: So Many Teams Falter-ing

Okay, this injury thing is getting ridiculous. It was bad enough when it was just the pitchers and an occasional hitter, but now I have teams where I have two or three of my most valuable offensive players who’ve just disappeared to the IL overnight. I never like to think about quitting on a fantasy baseball team at any point in the season let alone in April, but for those of us who are managing several (or, ahem, more than several) rosters, at some point it will feel like a waste of valuable management time to concentrate on teams that are inexorably buried in the standings. One thing I have decided is that I drafted way too many draft and hold teams this year; I figured the injury luck would kind of even out but when my teams are getting hit so hard so early it makes the whole season, well, sad instead of fun. So even though it’s incredibly time consuming, I’m re-committing myself to the world of FAAB and waivers in most of my leagues from now on and there’s no time to start like the present, whether it’s in my 12-team mixed leagues or with my deepest AL and NL-only teams. In just about any format, there is someone out there who can help, it’s just a matter of sifting through lots of rubble to find a hidden treasure or two. I do feel like we’re at that month-in lull that happens every season, where a handful of flashy call-ups and surprise early demotions have happened, leading to lots of scrambling and the picking clean of many a waiver wire. That won’t stop us from taking our weekly deep dive, however, in an attempt to find a little-owned player or two who might be able to give us a hand in NL-only, AL-only, or other particularly deep leagues.

NL

Bailey Falter. Was it just last offseason that I was pretty interested in Falter, drafting him in a couple deep-ish leagues? It’s fuzzy, but what’s not fuzzy is my memory of how badly he pitched when given the opportunity. Guys are supposed to suck in Pittsburgh and then become aces after they leave, but in a very small sample size Falter has done just the opposite: after an ugly 6 runs allowed in his first start, to the Marlins in Miami no less, he’s been absolutely stellar. Even with that early pounding, his ERA is at 3.33 and his WHIP is a ridiculous 0.89. He’s not a huge K guy and never has been, but his ratios have been decent and you know how I like a guy with good control (18 strikeouts to just 7 walks in 27 innings so far). Hmm, Falter was at 7% owned in CBS leagues when I jotted down his name to mention him this week, and I see he’s already up to 11%, so folks are taking notice and he may have already exited the ultra deep league gift shop. Have to think that under-one WHIP is headed north, but kinda wishing I’d grabbed Falter on one of my NL-only teams when I had the chance.

Pavin Smith. Always hate to mention a guy after he’s clearly had his game of the year, but that’s counteracted by the fact that a grand slam/6 RBI game from a player who’s not owned in even my deepest NL-only league automatically gets the blurb treatment. Smith will likely be up and down in Arizona this year, but he’s already appeared at both a first baseman and an outfielder for the D-Backs. I feel like he won last year’s award in my NL-only daily change league for “player who would go 0-4 every single time he was in my lineup and have 2 RBI every time he was on my bench,” but that doesn’t mean he’s not worth an ultra-deep league check-in.

Matt Mervis. I somehow completely missed that Mervis had been recalled, which happened even before the Cody Bellinger injury (boo for about four of my teams!), so I thought I’d mention it here in case you missed it as well. I just can’t go back to that well after watching him last year, and FWIW he’s already in mid-season form, 0-6 with 3 Ks. One or two of these guys that we’ve all rightfully given up on is gonna randomly become post-hype prospect relevant on us though, so I guess I’ll keep a very, very light radar on Mervis just to make sure he isn’t one of them.

Reed Garrett. There were a couple bids for Garrett in my 15-team leagues last weekend that seemed oddly high for a Mets middle reliever, as good as he’s been (ERA and WHIP both under one, with an absolutely ludicrous 25 Ks in 12.2 innings). The really wacky thing, though, is his 4 wins, and it seems the fantasy community is going all in on Garrett as this year’s random reliever who is going to end up with an obnoxious number of wins (he’s on pace for a giggle-inducing 28). He’s a 31-year old who, one would think, cannot possibly keep up either the strikeout rate or the endless shutout innings, but given the way starters are being babied (and watching the Mets pull Manaea after with an out to go in the 5th inning, with a comfortable lead, after he’d struck out the previous batter)… makes me think that double-digit win thing could very well happen for Garrett.

AL

Austin Martin. I’ve been in on Martin for a while now, and am hoping we’ll finally get a chance to see if he can stay afloat at the major league level. He’s already appeared at 18 games in the outfield and one at second as the Twins continue to navigate injuries and lackluster performances. He’s at 11% owned in CBS leagues and likely not available in deep AL-only formats, but I’m giving him a chance in a couple of my 15-teamers. It can be a silly exercise looking at a player’s minor league stats in hopes they will translate to the big leagues, but I do love me a hitter who can take a walk, so I’ll mention that Martin has a career MILB OBP of .388. I’ll also mention that, while he’s never shown a ton of pop, he stole 35 bags a couple seasons ago back on the farm. 

Ben Lively. With Gavin Williams in a world of elbow hurt, Lively may be in the Guardians rotation indefinitely, and he’s off to a rather incredible start for a 10% owned guy. It may just be 11.1 innings over two starts, without a win, but in addition to a pristine 0.79 WHIP, Lively has a spectacular 14 strikeouts versus one walk. If he can keep up anything close to this he should be in the mixed league conversation sooner rather than later, and even with some understandable regression he should be owned in anything resembling a deep league as we see what happens next. I should probably mention that Lively is a 32 year old with horrible career ratios, not a fresh young prospect, but serviceable starting pitchers are hard to find these days, my friends!

Albert Suarez. Speaking of veterans pitching way over their heads, we’d be remiss not to mention Suarez, who has started two games for the Orioles to a tune of a 0.00 ERA. He has 2 walks and 9 Ks in his 11.1 innings, so that’s good too. Suarez has a 1.24 WHIP in his 3-year major league career, which is a much less ugly number than I was expecting to see. Those career games, by the way, took place in 2016 and 2017 in San Francisco. Suarez spent the last two years in Korea, and while I’m pretty sure he’s not going to go unscored upon for 2024, we’ll see if he molded himself into a decent MLB pitcher while working overseas.

Buddy Kennedy. Time for our weekly 0% owned player: I don’t know a ton about Kennedy, but I do know that I’ll be placing a FAAB bid on him in my injury-depleted AL-only league this weekend. He’s up with the Tigers for the time being, qualifies at 3B in most leagues, and has appeared in one game this year at the hot corner as well as a few at second base. He’s 25 and has 1900 minor league at bats under his belt, but with those at bats he’s accumulated 47 homers and 40 steals, with an average/OBP of .285/.379. He’s already gone 1/1 in the majors this year (in just 4 games/7 at bats), which is more than I can say about a few of my “good” hitters (thanks for literally nothing so far this year, Ke’Bryan Hayes!)

Hope you and your teams are dodging as many of those injury bullets as possible, and thanks for reading!