We’re winding down on draft season now, with official games starting on Thursday. I am giddy for baseball after being pretty “meh” on the whole thing last year. This is the last Tuesday without baseball for some time (I hope!) and I’m here for it. We’re sitting at 46 Razzball Commenter Leagues right now (less than last year, but draft SZN is about two months shorter too) and all but four of those have drafted as of this writing. ECFBL, one of our longest running legacy leagues, is drafting late Wednesday night. Nothing like waiting until the last moment. If you didn’t get in on the fun, well, there’s always next year, don’t procrastinate so much next season! Speaking of fun, I had fun going over the ADP data by taking a look at the ADPs of all Grey’s Sleepers. Even though the ADP Sheet is Razzball-centric, it can still give you some interesting tidbits of information. So, let’s do some last second cramming for those final drafts and see what we can see.
Preseason trading has been in full swing. I tend to like to let my team marinate a little before making any trades, but I’m in so many I had to autodraft a couple this year. I also took over one team that was abandoned. No orphaned teams for us! Here are the trades we have had so far:
| DATE | LEAGUE | DETAILS |
|---|---|---|
| 3/14/2021 | RCL #1 | Team Chrismannella traded Eddie Rosario to Team bnrgoalie for Zack Greinke |
| 3/18/2021 | RCL #10 | Elephant Riders traded Kyle Lewis, Jared Walsh, Zac Gallen, Zach Eflin & Richard Rodriguez to Schmohawks for Austin Hays, Jorge Soler, Gerrit Cole, Alex Kirilloff & Stephen Strasburg |
| 3/28/2021 | RCL #29 | The Goose Wizard traded Aaron Hicks & Keston Hiura to Team Truss Takeover for Jake Cronenworth & Lance Lynn |
| 3/28/2021 | RCL #12 | Living the Dream traded Mike Moustakas to CornHolio’s Bunghole for Jose Berrios |
| 3/29/2021 | RCL #23 | Dunphy’s Joint Venture traded Javier Baez to Hall of Famer Baseball Persons for Michael Conforto |
Elephant Riders got one over on Schmohawks here it seems, trading a now-injured Kyle Lewis and Zac Gallen along with a maybe-out-of-a-job Richard Rodriguez for Cole and a now-injured Strasburg and demoted Kirilloff. Hmmmm.
I had too many pitchers on this orphaned team I adopted and I also don’t care for Lance Lynn at all, so, off he went.
DRAFT TRENDS
We now have 42 leagues worth of data to dig through, so no more small sample sizes. This week I thought it would be fun to take a look at all of Grey’s sleepers from his sleeper posts this preseason. Maybe you weren’t around in December and haven’t caught up with all his sleepers. This will not only serve as a handy guide to Grey’s loves, but also let you know where you need to strike to snipe those luscious sleepers. I’m also tossing in a chart with change in ADP data. This will show risers and fallers in ADP from two weeks ago compared to this past week. You’ll notice some sheets in the ADP spreadsheet that note ADP by time frame. Now you can grab the most recent week’s worth of ADP data so you can stay current on the latest trends. Hope you enjoy.
WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP
We’ve got RCL ADP! Here’s a list from our 42 league sample of some players whose ADPs I was curious about and some general notes.
| PLAYER | ADP | HI | LO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Laureano | 124.33 | 90 | 167 |
| Anthony Santander | 135.4 | 102 | 177 |
| Nick Solak | 168.93 | 124 | 221 |
| Jared Walsh | 189.12 | 134 | 285 |
| Franchy Cordero | 291.69 | 164 | 300 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 186.48 | 126 | 243 |
| Leody Taveras | 195.93 | 128 | 274 |
| Dylan Moore | 129.55 | 79 | 167 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 279.12 | 185 | 300 |
| Austin Riley | 191.86 | 141 | 267 |
| Eric Hosmer | 135.1 | 92 | 185 |
| Jorge Polanco | 230.88 | 169 | 300 |
| Franmil Reyes | 130.52 | 72 | 185 |
| Kevin Gausman | 123.86 | 91 | 159 |
| Tyler Mahle | 177.48 | 134 | 250 |
| Framber Valdez | 259 | 41 | 300 |
| Zach Eflin | 199.83 | 151 | 300 |
| Tony Gonsolin | 237.21 | 176 | 300 |
| John Means | 196.45 | 135 | 284 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 236.52 | 167 | 300 |
| Chris Bassitt | 164.29 | 132 | 221 |
This list is in the order Grey released his sleeper posts. I don’t know about you, but I had forgotten a couple of these from back in December. I do have plenty of shares of almost all of these players outside of Jake Cronenworth, Eric Hosmer and Jorge Polanco.
I think Nick Solak would have a higher ADP if he came with 2B eligibility in the RCLs. A quick note on that: The RCLs got generated as a copy from previous year’s league set-ups. I assumed the position limits were a FanTrax-wide change and never thought to check that ours were changed to 7 games vs. 20. This is the reason for so many UTIL only players in the RCL universe. We’re all drafting from the same boat though and by the time I realized it, drafts were happening and it was too late to change it.
I have no clue what to do with Framber right now. From 41 overall to undrafted, clearly it’s been a rollercoaster of a draft season for Framber stonks. Right now, I’m treating him like Carlos Carrasco, a decent DL stash that immediately opens up a streaming spot. I would love it if he only missed a few weeks and came back to all the hype he had before the injury.
RECENT TRENDS
Here we have a little chart showing some of the changes in ADP from two weeks ago to this past week. The bigger the DIFF number the higher the player is currently being drafted and vice versa.
| PLAYER | ADP (3/22+) | ADP (3/8-3/14) | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Romano | 158.25 | 279.1 | 120.85 |
| Emilio Pagan | 200.83 | 298.9 | 98.07 |
| Amir Garrett | 168.08 | 244 | 75.92 |
| C.J. Cron | 180.83 | 244.3 | 63.47 |
| Peter Fairbanks | 215.25 | 268.1 | 52.85 |
| Jake McGee | 226.42 | 273.9 | 47.48 |
| Willi Castro | 232.67 | 274.9 | 42.23 |
| Gregory Soto | 256.75 | 298.5 | 41.75 |
| Anthony Bass | 222.08 | 263.2 | 41.12 |
| Nick Madrigal | 190.5 | 230.6 | 40.1 |
| Freddy Peralta | 230.67 | 269.5 | 38.83 |
| Andres Gimenez | 166.25 | 203.2 | 36.95 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 183.83 | 218.9 | 35.07 |
| Kolten Wong | 237.17 | 269.1 | 31.93 |
| Chris Martin | 221.75 | 253.4 | 31.65 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 148.08 | 179.2 | 31.12 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 279.25 | 247.3 | -31.95 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 250.67 | 217 | -33.67 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 196.92 | 163 | -33.92 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 281.75 | 245.6 | -36.15 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 274.25 | 237.3 | -36.95 |
| Daulton Varsho | 294.08 | 255.2 | -38.88 |
| Jonathan Villar | 253.67 | 214.6 | -39.07 |
| Sean Manaea | 279.58 | 237.8 | -41.78 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 203.17 | 157.2 | -45.97 |
| Luke Voit | 107.33 | 60.7 | -46.63 |
| Zach Eflin | 223.17 | 176.1 | -47.07 |
| Jose Leclerc | 299.75 | 240.5 | -59.25 |
| Zac Gallen | 121.67 | 45.8 | -75.87 |
| Nick Anderson | 238.92 | 155.2 | -83.72 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 199.08 | 75.1 | -123.98 |
| Kirby Yates | 293 | 133.1 | -159.9 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 212.33 | 26.6 | -185.73 |
Just look at all those would-be closers climbing the ADP ranks! I think some of this is due to legacy leagues drafting and going closer-crazy, but others are clearly the result of injury news.
Freddy Peralta’s drool-worthy K-rate is climbing the charts now that he’s in the rotation. I think I preferred him as a streamable RP personally, but either way, he’s fun to watch.
Shohei Ohtani, continues to climb the charts!
Eloy is just a huge bummer. I hadn’t had a chance to draft him anywhere yet, but it still sucks when stars go down.
Is there news on Ha-seong Kim that I missed? I know he’s struggled in Spring Training so far, but come on, it’s spring people.
THE FIRST ROUND
Finally, here’s a fun chart that shows all of the data from the first round of RCL drafts:
| Slot >>>> | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 37 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 3 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 |
| Juan Soto | 1 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 |
| Mookie Betts | 0 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 |
| Mike Trout | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 |
| Trea Turner | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 42 |
| Jacob deGrom | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 40 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 40 |
| Trevor Story | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 39 |
| Gerrit Cole | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 29 |
| Christian Yelich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| Shane Bieber | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 24 |
| Freddie Freeman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 15 |
| Cody Bellinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 14 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| Bryce Harper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Bo Bichette | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Trevor Bauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Yu Darvish | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Lucas Giolito | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
As of right now Razzballers have six unanimous first round picks in Ronald Acuna Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout and Trea Turner. Jacob deGrom and Jose Ramirez are right there as well with each missing the first round in two leagues.
In addition to deGrom and Ramirez there are four other consensus first rounders; Trevor Story, Gerrit Cole, Christian Yelich and Shane Bieber.
Yes, someone really did draft Realmuto with the 8th overall pick. Rumor has it, JT’s mom is a fantasy baseballer.
Hopefully some of this data helps you out these last couple days of drafting. Check back next week when we’ll have four whole days of real baseball stats to overreact to! It will be awesome!
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