Outfielder Update: Early Disappointments Edition

We are nearly 10% of the way into the MLB season, high time to make snap judgements on all our teams and every player in the league. So let’s gather around the Festivus table and find the outfielders who have most disappointed us over the past two+ weeks.

I thought of searching in the crawl space for the Festivus Pole and competing with them in feats of strength, but then I realized I don’t actually know any major league baseball players and they could all subdue me in roughly 3 seconds anyway. Instead, I will just write about them while hiding behind a pseudonym. I’m going to stick to outfielders with NFBC Main Event ADP’s in the top 250 who have underwhelmed thus far, injury guys excluded. Despite what I said all of one paragraph ago, it’s too early to take drastic action based on a small sample size, especially for the top guys. But for the later ones and if we also have playing time concerns? I actually have already cut one of them in a Main Event. You don’t want to act too rashly, but by the same token, it’s a competitive game out there. Don’t find yourself waiting too long for that elusive Festivus Miracle!

Stats and Earned Auction Value via Razzball Player Rater values go through Saturday. The ADP OF ranks are from all NFBC Main Event drafts.

Yordan Alvarez OF-8, ADP 17.89, 1 HR, .229 AVG, $4.2 EAV

The entirety of the Astros lineup has gotten off to a sluggish start, but a lot of that has to do with their Yordan just not doing much this far. At the end of 2.5 weeks last season, he was hitting .317 with 4 homers, and 12 RBI’s and runs apiece. He’s a .296 career hitter who has popped between 31 and 37 homers in each of the last 4 seasons. In fact, his only blemish has been his availability as the 147 games he played last year marked a career high. There is no league shallow enough where I would even bench Yordan as I suspect he’s one or two monster games away from getting right. But that does not mean there are not some worrisome signs to his start. He has lost some command of the strike zone with an O-Swing% of 34.5% (36th percentile) vs. 28.2% for his career, and a Z-Swing% of 59.6% vs. a career 62.2%. On the plus side, he still mashes when he does make contact. His 6 barrels suggest he should have more like 3-4 homers, and his 16.2% Barrel% and 94.9 EV are near his career levels. I truly expect that Yordan will sort out his current pitch selection issues and he will start producing soon and I will look foolish for including him here

Michael Harris OF-16, ADP 46.82, 2 HR, 1 Steal, .231 AVG, .271 wOBA, $9.10 EAV

Everyone (myself included) expected the Braves offense to revert to something resembling 2023 form, rather than their injury-addled 2024 selves. Well, not so much as they rank 19th in MLB with a 97 wRC+ and just like last season, Marcell Ozuna looks like most of their offense. I really liked Michael Harris at cost, but so far, so bad. Like Yordan, he never plays a full season. Also like Yordan, his slow start has nothing to do with availability. But unlike Yordan, there’s not a lot to cling to just yet. Check out his early Statcast page.

Harris never walked much, but a 3.4% is on the “Yikes” side, and it’s especially painful for a guy you pencil in for 20 steals. His 47.3% O-Swing% ranks 8th worst among qualified hitters. When he makes contact he risks obliterating any worm life residing near the infield dirt as he has a 2.2 Launch Angle with a respectable 90.7 EV. Harris is a .283 career hitter so I suspect he did not forget how to bat, but it’s a rough profile right now. Encouragingly he did hit one of his 2 homers on Saturday night, along with his first steal of the year.

The Braves popped Harris up to the leadoff spot vs. righties, but in two starts vs. southpaws, Harris sat once and hit 8th the other time. If/when Ronald Acuna returns, Harris will likely drop back down to the 6 or 7 hole, especially if he has not turned it around by then. No way I am cutting bait this early, or probably ever, so long as he stays healthy.

Luis Robert Jr. OF-23, ADP 90.44, 1 HR, .178 AVG, .249 wOBA, 6 steals, $7.80 EAV

The White Sox have held onto “LouBob” through their recent fire sales in an effort to let him rebuild his prior trade value. He dropped from 128 wRC+ to an 84 last year to 59 in 2025. Here’s a quick lesson on why Bat Speed alone can predict next to nothing.

Robert has always had too much swing and miss in his game. His 15.5% SwStr% is high, but an improvement on his 17.6% career level. He now has become a fly ball hither with a 17.9 LA with a low 86.7 EV. That’s a kind of anti-sweet spot where you hit a lot of avg. depressing fly balls without the force needed to turn them into homers.

He can still run, and those 6 steals have salvaged some Fantasy value. But a sub .300 OBP combined with an awful team hitting behind him suggests sub par counting stats. I would not cut Robert even in the shallowest of formats, but it’s setting up as the most painful of 30+ steals seasons imaginable. The best hope is anything resembling a hot run that lets the White Sox trade him to a contender.

Anthony Santander OF-26, ADP 106.26, 1 HR, .190 AVG, .258 wOBA, -$6.60 EAV

Big ticket free agent signings often start slowly in their new digs. I’m a Mets fan, this always happens. Carlos Beltran looked lost for a year before turning into a perennial MVP candidate. Same for Francisco Lindor, though technically he was a trade acquisition who then signed a huge contract. Santander does not have anywhere close to their skills, and everyone expected regression off his well-timed 44 homer burst in his walk year. But this start? Ouch. He waited until Saturday night for his first homer. 

Santander headed north of the border with a profile that we all know ages poorly. He’s a pure power bat with a very meh .244 career avg. and .307 OBP who also does not field or run well. And he’s 30 years old. It’s basically a corner OF/DH Pete Alonso with less pop. But he’s slotted into the 3 hole in a potent Toronto lineup, so a 30-35 homer season with good counting stats sure looked doable, if not likely. And hey, maybe it still happens. Marcus Semien left Toronto for Texas $’s a few years back and didn’t homer for 2 months and still finished with 26 bombs. 

Right now though there’s nothing in Santanders’ profile to get our Fantasy juice flowing. He’s walking at a career high 12.1% rate, but that has come with a 25.8% K%. It’s a 3 true outcomes profile with 1 homer, obviously light on our favorite of the outcomes. As you can surmise, he needs to swing more, especially at strikes as he has a 62.8% Z-Swing%, down 5 clicks from his career norms. When he makes contact, it’s poor as he has just 2 Barresl all year and a 39% HardHit%. Worse, his LA is down to 14.8 from a career 20.1, so even though his EV of 91.7 looks fine, Santander has hit a lot more grounders and popups (21.4% IFFB%).

On Santander, as well as the first three guys I mentioned, I would not take any action in any format. I did bench him for the weekend and miss his one homer, but that was only because he had just two games thanks to a Friday rainout. This is where the “wait it out” phase of this list ends, as the next 3 guys require reassessment

Dylan Crews OF-28, ADP 112.11, 0 HR, .116 AVG, .130 wOBA, 37.8% K%, 3 steals, -$10.00 EAV

I noted in my debut article here that I liked Crews, but was happy to wait a few rounds and draft Tommy Edman and his similar stat projection 3-4 rounds later. Well, that call looks correct, but not at all in the way I expected. Edman has no steals, but is tied for the league lead with 6 homers, Crews does have 3 steals, but now hits at the bottom of the Nats lineup and looks utterly lost at the plate.

Crews has 3 barrels and a 90.7 EV, so when he has made contact, it’s ok. It’s the whole “making contact” part that has reached unsustainable levels. 

He simply has gotten too passive at the plate as his 59.3% Z-Swing% ranks him near the bottom of qualified hitters. As long as Crews lets hittable pitches go by, and provides little to no power threat, he will see a boatload of strikes as evidenced by his sky-high 54.8% Zone% (the league level as a whole is 42.2%).

I could definitely see benching Crews in shallower formats until he shows something, but I would hate to totally bail just yet. You do have to wonder how long the Nats will stick with him though. Alex Call is starting to play almost every day in the OF, so far mostly for CF Jacob Young. 

Jake McCarthy OF-53, 222.47 ADP, 0 HR, .097 AVG, .131 wOBA, 1 Steal, 1 run, -$13.00 EAV

I got this one completely wrong. I did not expect much power from McCarthy, but I did anticipate lots of steals from a batting average asset with everyday playing time in a loaded lineup. Instead, he more or less splits time with Alec Thomas and has three hits all season.

Obviously, this could turn at some point, though I will have to buy back in FAAB leagues as I have cut him already. Roster spots are precious commodities and I can’t use one up on a part-timer who at best gives a major plus in just one category (steals) offset by a major drain on another (power). Just a whiff on my part.

Garrett Mitchell OF-55, 235.37 ADP, O HR, 1 Steal, .265 AVG, -$2.60 EAV

The production lacks a bit so far, but my real concern here revolves around playing time. The Brewers have used Mitchell purely as a platoon bat and it’s not entirely clear why. The young OF has an interesting power speed profile with some batting average concerns thanks to a career 33.6% K%. He is far too passive early on this season, with just a 51.7% Z-Swing% and a high 23.5% CStr% and his next barrel will be his first.

Really though the main concern with Mitchell coming in was the health as he missed major time in his first two seasons. The power should come as he has an 8.5% career Barrel%, and so should the steals as he possesses 93rd percentile Sprint Speed. But will he get enough plate appearances? He only has 65 in his career vs. lefties, but his results are fine as he has a .286 Avg and 106 wRC+ vs. .260 and 125 vs. righties. I am absolutely holding on here (I have him in a Main).