Outfield 2nd Half Slumpers Not Named Pete Crow-Armstrong

We’re heading into the home stretch. No pressure, but every little decision you make now could be the difference between cashing a prize or not! If you come up short, well, here’s a handy list of outfielders in deep second half slumps that might have cost you glory. More importantly though, with only four weeks left, we need to decide what to do with some of these guys. Here they are in all their post All-Star Break wRC+ (non) glory. Stats go through Saturday.

Lawrence Butler 44 wRC+

The Law Dog makes his 3rd appearance in a row in this column, the last two as a faller in the too early Meatball draft. He was a bit better Fantasy-wise in the 1st half of the season than I gave him credit for, as he had 13 homers and 16 steals in 408 PA’s into the break. Still, after going 22-18 in 456 PA’s in his breakout rookie year, and then moving to a much more hitter friendly park, that felt light. But hey, that’s boom time compared to now. In 133 PA’s since the ASB he’s slashed a real-life unplayable .164/.221/.320 with 5 homers and 1 steal and a 32.3% K%. One of those homers came on Saturday, so hopefully it’s the start of something. 

He’s now semi-platooning in the A’s over-crowded outfield. His statcast page with a thing of beauty in 2024, but quite the opposite this season as he’s regressed across the board.

In deeper formats, you maybe can bench him, especially on the road or when there are lefties on tap. But he has too much potential upside to drop. In shallower formats who knows though, especially if it’s redraft. He’s not playing full time and generally trending the wrong way. The A’s locked him up long term, so they would of course like this to work. 

Ceddanne Rafaella 45 wRC+

Another Meatball draftee! In this case, though, it was because he popped up to the 7th round. It’s not because of his stellar current play as he’s slashing just ..203/.248/.294 with 1 homer and 7 RBI’s since the break. He does have 6 steals and 17 runs in 39 games, so it’s not all horrible. But he had 14 homers heading into it, so he’s officially slumping. His EV dropped from 90.4 to a pretty anemic 84.6, and his Barrel% from 11.8% to 3.6%. I mentioned last week I like where he’s heading overall. He’s a super athletic 24 year old with 99th percentile Fielding Run value in Center and Middle infield with improving plate skills and power. But the trend within the trend has headed the wrong way. Like Butler, he’s signed, and the Red Sox will try to play him. But they’re in the heat of a pennant race, and that lineup can get crowded when everyone is healthy. I have him in a 15 teamer, and I just run him out there every week. Well, I kind of have no choice at the moment as my only other 2B eligible guy in Brendan Donovan, and he’s on the IL.  I also have Ceddanne in a shallower home league and have mostly sat him recently. So I guess that quantifies my opinion pretty well! I don’t think he’s a cut anywhere, but I’d rather bench and wait for some sign of life here.

Nick Castellanos 49 wRC+

The 33 year old has a .272 career batting average and 249 career homers, quite a few with unfortunate timing. But his overall play has trended so badly that he is barely playable in real life. He’s never had a great glove, but he’s now almost literally the worst fielder in MLB. He has 1st percentile fielding run value in a corner outfield spot. DH in Philly is not an option because they also employ Kyle Schwarber. But even in a world without Schwarber, Castellanos does not hit well enough anymore to commit the DH spot to him fulltime, He has a .697 OPS overall with an 87.6 EV (18th percentile) and 8.4% Barrel% that just screams mediocrity. He had almost identical metrics in 2022, but then rebounded a bit in 2023. Can he pull off the same trick again later this year or in 2026? I wouldn’t bank on it. Guys like Joey Votto and George Springer have had mid 30’s revivals that provided huge value to their fantasy drafters (and real life teams). I would not be shocked if Mookie Betts or even Nolan Arenado tick up again before they head off into the sunset. But all were or are better real life players than Castelannos. He had a 0.2 WAR last year and -0.7 this year and a $20 million contract for 2026. The Phillies may just send him packing and eat the $’s.

Steven Kwan 73 wRC+

Kwan has 4 homers, 3 steals, and 22 runs in 162 PA’s since the break, not fantastic but far from disastrous. But if you roster him, you almost certainly did it for his batting average. And he’s hitting just .235 since then. It is almost certainly just bad batted ball luck, as nothing has changed in his rare profile. His always elite Contact% in his slump is 93.5% vs. 91.7% in his career. Mind you, that’s contact on everything, not just Zone Contact. His EV is never high, and at 85.6 it’s in line with his career level of 86. The only slightly noteworthy ding (for him) is that his LA is up to 18.2 vs. 14.6, so the greater frequency of fly balls costs him some hits. There’s absolutely nothing to do here, it just feels like some small sample size randomness.

Addison Barger 81 wRC+

The 1st half Statcast breakout has morphed into some 2nd half blahs. Before the ASB, Barger had a 93.4 EV, 53.9% HardHit%, and 14.4% Barrel%. Since then, those metrics have dipped to 90.1 EV, 46.2% HardHit%, and 8.7% Barrel%. His plate discipline has regressed, too, as his O-Swing% has lifted from 28.2% to 35.4%. None of this is terrible by any means, but he looked like a breakout star, and now he’s more a platoon-bat. When he starts, he’s batting near the top of a deep and loaded Blue Jays lineup. But he’s mired in a pretty deep slump, He last homered on August 10th, and since then, he’s just 7 for 56 with 3 runs and 2 RBI’s. And he platoons pretty strictly, he’ll often get pinch hit for when a lefty comes in. I’m not cutting him in deep formats, but I’m also not playing him unless he has mostly righties on tap.

Seiya Suzuki 86 wRC+

Seiya had a monster first half at 263/.319.547, with 25 homers, 53 runs, and 77 RBI’s in 407 PA’s. He hit a 3 run homer in the first game back. Since then, he’s slashed an anemic .192/.335/.248 with just 1 homer, 11 runs, and 7 RBI’s in 150 PA’s. He’s actively wrecking Fantasy lineups. All he’s doing well is talking his walks, which has limited value for us when he rarely steals (he has 2 in the 2nd half), and the guys behind him are slumping too.

There’s really not much action we can take here. His 18.1% BB% vs.  23.2% K% during his slump is actually terrific, and he’s also perhaps a bit unlucky. His 25 1st half homers came on 49 barrels, pretty much the rate the league converts barrels to homers. In his slump, he’s hit 14 barrels but produced just one homer. Wrigley, of course, has very variable winds, and they’ve been pitcher friendly lately.

He’s a .271 BA .351 wOBA career hitter playing every day at the top of an ostensibly excellent lineup, you really can’t bench that even while he’s actively hurting your numbers. Cross your fingers and hope the wind starts blowing out again!