Philadelphia Phillies 2009 Minor League Review
Overall Farm Rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (12) | 2008 (22) | 2007 (21) | 2006 (22) | 2005 (20) | 2004 (21)
Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [93 – 69] NL East
AAA: [71 – 73] International League
AA: [75 – 67] Eastern League
A+: [67 – 69] Florida League
A: [78 – 58] South Atlantic
A(ss): [42 – 34] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [31 – 28] Gulf League
The Run Down
What an offseason for the Phillies. Trading Cliff Lee for a handful of prospects, which is what they gave up for him, and then trading to get Halladay. Here is Grey’s review of the Halladay trade and the other moves made during those days. The signing of Placido Polanco to play third base, albeit, a blahtastic move, it’s just as good as resigning Pedro Feliz. I am not going to defend the trade, but having just Domonic Brown, Michael Taylor, Drabek, and Travis d’Arnaud as your only top prospects doesn’t look bad, but it still doesn’t look great. The players they gave up for Halladay (Taylor, Drabek, and d’Arnaud) aren’t necessarily replaced by the Lee trade, but they provide some high-ceiling chips (Aumont and Gillies). Plus, the Phillies know they are going to have Halladay for a few more years. Lee only has one year left on his contract and is a fly ball pitcher.
With just Domonic Brown and J.C. Ramirez as your top prospects, the Phillies are now lacking depth that they built the last two years. With the roster they have as of right now, they are playing for today and sacrificing a bit for tomorrow. Salary issues are going to start rising for them sooner rather than later, not to mention a top heavy rotation (Blanton or Happ is you number three starter).
Graduating Prospects
#9 – (LHP) J.A. Happ
Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions
Pitchers – #29 Michael Cisco; #19 Edgar Garcia; Scott Mathieson; Michael Schwimer
Hitters – (C) Tuffy Gosewisch; (SS) Troy Hanzawa; #1 (RF) Domonic Brown; (LF) Steve Susdorf
Players of Interest for 2010
All player rankings are from Baseball America 2009.
Hitters
Tyson Gillies
Went over him when I did the Mariners’ Minor League Review a month or so ago. This review has both Tyson Gillies and Aumont.
#1 Domonic Brown | RF | A+/AA | 21 | .299/.377/.504 | 395 AB | 44 XBH | 14 HR | .205 ISO | 23/10 SB/CS | 86:49 K:BB | .356 BABIP | 43.8 GB% | 18.6 LD% | 37.5 FB%
A broken finger cost Brown about of month of playing time last year, but, in the time he had, his numbers were impressive. Playing in the hitter-friendly environment of the Florida league, Brown laced the ball all around the field. When he was promoted to Double-A, he held his own slashing .279/.346/.456 in 147 AB. At just 21, he is still probably at least another year out from making major contributions to the Phillies at the major league level. His swing produces above-average power and he has above-average speed. Think the possibility of a 20/20 guy in his prime with the upside of 30/30. If all goes well in 2010, he’ll see a September call-up. His upside in 2011 would be Nolan Reimold in 2009, just to put something out there.
John Mayberry Jr. | RF | AAA | 25 | .256/.332/.456 | 316 AB | 35 XBH | 13 HR | .200 ISO | 94:34 K:BB | .325 BABIP | 39.4 GB% | 17.7 LD% | 42.9 FB%
He’s a little old to be on most prospects lists and I know he received some extended major league time this past year. However, with a career line of .255/.331/.469 and an ISO of .214 in 2306 AB in the minors, Mayberry may be regulated to, at best, a fourth outfield spot. With the aging Raul Ibanez and the potential for Victorino to be riding the DL with another hamstring issue, Mayberry could provide short stints where he is ownable in deeper leagues. Just remember, he would be on your team for power, not for anything else.
Pitchers
Phillipe Aumont
See Phillipe Aumont’s Scouting the Unknown article from September.
#11 Antonio Bastardo | LHP | R/A+/AA/AAA | 23 | 9.3 K/9 | 2.0 BB/9 | 54 1/3 IP | 2.15 ERA | 2.49 FIP | .94 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .270 BABIP | 40.1 GB% | 13.6 GB% | 42.9 FB%
John Sickels calls him Antonio “Inglourious” Bastardo, clever, but let’s be thankful that Chris Berman doesn’t cover much baseball. Bastardo has the fastball to be in the majors right now, but his breaking ball(s) aren’t consistent enough to be a starter. He also has the injury history to wary of getting sucked into any hype surround him. He may end up in the ‘pen as a long reliever in 2010. However, he could suffice as a fifth starter too. Just don’t expect much from him as his ground ball rates are too low to succeed in Philadelphia. Look for him to start in Triple-A in 2010.
#22 Drew Carpenter | RHP | AAA | 24 | 6.9 K/9 | 2.7 BB/9 | 156 IP | 3.35 ERA | 4.14 FIP | 1.34 WHIP | 1 HR/9 | .313 BABIP | 39.4 GB% | 20.7 LD% | 35.8 FB%
Every time I look at his numbers I want to discard him and forget that I ever contemplated his name. Carpenter doesn’t get enough ground balls to succeed in Philadelphia, especially with average stuff. If he was playing for San Diego, Grey would be all over him. He may be a Quad-A player that gets some spot starts throughout the year. Don’t be surprise to see this name floated around in a minor trade later this season. He could provide marginal value with a few spot starts or quality injury insurance.
Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#15 Anthony Gose | CF | A | 18 | .259/.323/.353 | 510 AB | 35 XHB | 2 HR | .094 ISO | 76/20 SB/CS | 110:35 K:BB | .338 BABIP | 63.9 GB% | 14.1 LD% | 21.3 FB%
60 yards in 6.5 seconds. Plus-plus arm in center. 76 steals. 19 years old today. Short sentences are terrible and I humbly apologize, but look at those numbers. Alright, avoid that pesky little slash line. Playing with kids two years older than him probably has more impact on those numbers than his talent would indicate. His speed is comparable to Dee Gordon, a shortstop over in the Dodgers farm system. Some scouts think his swing could produce 20 homers in a season, but no time soon. Steals, man, that is what Mr. Gose can provide, and awesome defense.
Pitchers
I really like Fratus and Flande, but they are too young to be in the above section. Their ground ball rates are excellent, they gave up only a few homers and they don’t walk many (with Fratus the better of the two).
Justin de Fratus | RHP | A | 21| 8.3 K/9 | 1.3 BB/9 | 110 IP | 3.19 ERA | 2.66 FIP | 1.13 WHIP | .2 HR/9 | .335 BABIP | 54.7 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 25.5 FB%
Like I said above, I really like Fratus. His command is impeccable, his strikeout rates are good, the ball stays on the ground for the most part and his FIP shows that he pitched even better than the numbers suggest. One thing to note, he was used as both a starter and a reliever, pitching much better as a reliever, 1.58 ERA (46 IP) vs. 4.34 (64 IP) ERA as a starter. His pitches tail off, in terms of effectiveness, as the game progresses. If his stamina is increased, he could be a great fourth or fifth pitcher for the Phillies by eating innings. However, as a reliever, his value is greatly reduced and would be more effective as a two inning stopgap to finish a game. If he pitches well again at High-A and Double-A, I am sure I’ll be pimping him.
Yohan Flande | LHP | A+/AA | 23 | 6.9 K/9 | 2.7 BB/9 | 152 2/3 IP | 3.48 ERA | 3.50 FIP | 1.30 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | .323 BABIP | 52.1 GB% | 14.4 LD% | 29.8 FB%
Flande has a great changeup and an average fastball and curve. His upside is a fifth starter, but a long relief role or a lefty out of the pen used for match-ups look more likely. Just a name to log and not expect great things from.
#16 Vance Worley | RHP | AA | 21 | 5.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 153 1/3 IP | 5.34 ERA | 4.53 FIP | 1.38 WHIP| 1 HR/9 | .306 BABIP | 41.2 GB%| 14.4 LD% | 40.4 FB%
I don’t really like Worley. But I am sure there are few fans out there that will want to know about him. To quote Baseball America, “Worley doesn’t figure to rack up big strikeout counts.” Well, with a ground ball rate of 41% and a fly-ball rate of 40%, his future doesn’t look too promising, especially in Philadelphia. At just 21, Worley has plenty of time to improve his game, especially since most 21 year old players are, at best, High-A if not Single-A ball. He should return to Double-A and see if he can improve his home run rates and this ratios. Otherwise, Triple-A may be where he flames out.
