With a month left in the fantasy season and the fantasy playoffs just ramping up, it is time to look at a few players that are trending different ways in the stat sheet. To do such a detailed analysis, we can certainly look at the key luck drivers such as batting average on balls in play or maybe even home runs per fly ball. But here at Razzball, we like to go deeper so we have pulled out the lucky rabbit foot, horseshoes, magic eight balls and our four-leaf clovers. Using all these tools we have determined one thing; Lou Gehrig was the luckiest man on the face of the earth. Maybe that was just listening to a quote from 1939 or the same analysis we will use here to review a few players moving in different directions over the past month in Trey Mancini and Tyler Naquin. Who do we sell? Who do we hold? Who do we buy? Let us find out!
Trey Mancini
During the month of August, Trey Mancini clubbed a whopping one home run while totaling a combined 12 R + RBI and a paltry .224 average. Disappointing for a player making it to the finale of the home run derby during the summer classic. What in the name of Eddie Murray happened? Simply put, Mancini missed a year of baseball, and it is a long season. This late-season slump could be a simple explanation if we look beyond the stats. However, this is clearly a statistic-driven website that relies on nothing beyond analytics and a little sarcasm along the way. With that said:
- Mancini appeared to be pressing throughout August was he increased his pull rate substantially compared to the first half of the season.
- A double-dip of lower flyball rates and radically low home runs per flyballs led to the decrease in power production for the month.
- The walk rate dropping to 3% for the month compared to nearly 9% during the first half does little to help as well.
Add all the pieces together and we have a player who is pressing and suffering from some back luck at the same time. The recipe is one for a disastrous month which leads fantasy owners to question what they are doing for the last month of the season. There are better days ahead.
Verdict: Hold
Tyler Naquin
A hot month of August was not only in the Cincinnati weather forecast but also in the bat of the former Indian. A scorching .386 with six long balls and a combined 30 R + RBI has raised some eyebrows and led some fantasy owners into the playoffs. So, what was the difference compared to the prior rough month? Naquin improved his walk rate by more than two times his recent rates. Moreover, his hard-hit rates were on the rise, but still below the rates of his first half. Unfortunately, a sky-high BABIP over .450 and nearly 40% of flyballs leaving the park are great for the stat sheet but ultimately unreliable.
At the end of the day, Naquin is still a 4th outfielder who rarely plays against left-handed pitching (he had a whole 21 plate appearances against them in August). While he has been on a heater the last month, it will not last much longer.
Verdict: Sell, but enjoy the ride first
