Value. It’s the essence of fantasy baseball draft strategy. Some players are draft day values, while others might not return value. When you read an article and the writer speaks of “value”, the writer is trying to tell you he likes that player and thinks you should be targeting him in your drafts. It is often his or her subjective view of a player’s value compared to the common perception of that player; a perception that may exist in the form of other rankings and engendered through ADP. I believe very strongly in using perhaps the most objective means of player valuation available: Algorithm based player projections. So when I say a player is a value based on his ADP it’s because the projections suggest it. And that means I am presenting you this information without favoritism towards any particular player. By their very nature the projections have no favoritism and a player’s ADP is simply a fact.
Every year there are a number of unheralded speedsters that will return great value because they can be had late in the draft. The Razzball bigwigs have dubbed that concept SAGNOF – Steals Ain’t Got No Face. With all that in mind, here is my second article of speedy players to target by comparing the players’ overall value versus their ADP (average draft position). This list targets players based on their Yahoo ADP, the first one which you can find here was based on ESPN ADP.
My approach to this list is a little different than the ESPN based one. I’ve opted to only include guys that are either 1. Elite speedsters or 2. Good values. The ideal targets are those with big positive numbers in the ADP-Rank column. Be sure to target them at a place where they can still return value, between their Rank and Yahoo ADP, but closer to their ADP if their is a large disparity between the two.
| Player | Position | SB | Yahoo | Rank | ADP-Rank | $Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Hamilton | OF | 62.2 | 43 | 32 | 11 | $22.9 |
| Dee Gordon | 2B-SS | 52.1 | 63 | 75 | -12 | $15.5 |
| Ben Revere | OF | 37.6 | 154 | 103 | 51 | $12 |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 37.5 | 16 | 14 | 2 | $28.8 |
| Carlos Gomez | OF | 33.5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | $32.2 |
| Starling Marte | OF | 32.4 | 57 | 22 | 35 | $24.5 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | OF | 31.3 | 25 | 28 | -3 | $23.6 |
| Elvis Andrus | SS | 29.5 | 125 | 118 | 7 | $11.2 |
| Leonys Martin | OF | 27.7 | 155 | 109 | 46 | $11.6 |
| Jean Segura | SS | 24.5 | 250 | 225 | 25 | $3.9 |
| Jose Reyes | SS | 22.8 | 57 | 47 | 10 | $20.0 |
| Gregory Polanco | OF | 21.7 | 195 | 141 | 54 | $9.0 |
| Steven Souza | OF | 20.0 | 300+ | 92 | 208 | $13.2 |
We are not only dealing with the differences in ADP from ESPN to Yahoo; slight changes to the projections since the last article have moved Leonys Martin up 15 spots and Starling Marte up 5 spots. Leonys Martin’s change was probably due to news that came out about a week ago that he will bat leadoff. Yahoo drafters are even more skeptical of Steven Souza than those drafting at ESPN as he isn’t even in the top 300, which is as far as Yahoo lets me see in the overall (as opposed to each position) ADP list. Denard Span is no longer projected for 20+ SBs because he’s out until early May or so with an injury to his abdomen. Jacoby Ellsbury has suffered a minor injury and is expected to be fine for opening day. Onto the players worth targeting, with all “draft in round” references to 12-team leagues.
Ben Revere may be the best source of speed to be had in later rounds of 2015 drafts and based on these numbers is amongst my highest recommendations to those trying to get an abundance safe speed late.
Starling Marte is going a 11 picks later in Yahoo than ESPN, where he’s also a value. Draft him with a pick in the 40-55 range as an outstanding bargain that will put you one step closer to winning your league. Amazingly enough his projected stats are comparable to Jose Altuve‘s projection in every category except AVG. Here’s the comparison for their R-HR-RBI-SB-AVG projections:
| Jose Altuve | 83.8 | 8.7 | 60.3 | 37.5 | .299 | $28.8 |
| Starling Marte | 78.4 | 14.7 | 61.5 | 32.4 | .272 | $24.5 |
Jose Altuve is a decent value in the 2nd round. I’ve got no quarrel with anyone selecting Altuve there. Marte, on the other hand looks from this stat line like he should be going in the 3rd but he’s generally not drafted until the 5th or early 6th based on the 57 ADP. And because you know you can find more speed much later, it sets you up to be able to go with HR+AVG type players when not drafting pitching.
Leonys Martin and Ben Revere are being drafted in about the same spot in Yahoo and that is something that benefits you, my friend, greatly. It means that if you miss one you can get the other. Wait until the 12th-13th round to grab one or the other.
I’m a believer in meritocracy, which is the idea that position scarcity is essentially a myth, so I’m not going to say you need to draft Jean Segura because he’s a shortstop, instead, I’ll just say that he would be a decent 21st round value pick even if he were not a shortstop but instead an outfielder.
Gregory Polanco should still be around if you waited too long for both Revere and Martin but his stat line is a bit more well rounded and not as SB heavy. One could combo a 14th round Polanco with a 15th round… (wait for it)
Up next, Steven Souza, aka the most incredible late value in this year’s Yahoo drafts. He’s got 20/20 potential, folks. In fact he’s projected for 19.6/20!!! This bears repeating: 19.6/20!!! To put that in perspective, if he could do that with a .300 AVG and 80/80 Runs/RBI he’d be Michael Brantley, a late 2nd early 3rd round type. I’m not implying he can do that, in fact, he can’t; I’m saying once you are capable of putting up 20/20 you are 2/5ths of the way to fantasy goodness.
My next article will cover guys that are, at least projections wise, true sleepers. Hint: Eric Young Jr. is amongst those players because he is only projected for about 250 plate appearances. But will he exceed those projections? Find out in the next episode of “It’s a SAGNOF World After All.”
