How did I GET here? Did Grey open a magical portal and whisk me away from my fantasy football world like he was Dr. Who? I don’t remember stepping into his TARDIS. The last thing I do remember was some guy with a mustache, free candy and a windowless van but he said he wanted to step into MY TARDIS. I don’t think I’m remembering that last word right. In any case, just like Eddie Munster and him being a public notary, I’m also a fantasy baseball writer so I’ve got that going for me too. That last sentence was a Simpsons reference that only the cool – read ‘forever alone’ – kids are going to get. But of course, none of this filler is what I came here to tell you about which you no doubt knew from reading the title because you’re clever like that. Nay, we’re here to talk to you about a catcher north of the border whose game travels down my treasure trail and warms my southern hemisphere. We’re talking about none other than the starting catcher for the Toronto Blue Jays, J.P. Arencibia, and whether or not his current low value at mock draft central is justified or not. Hence the title ‘Discount Double Check’ which is also a reference to Aaron Rodgers and fantasy football. See how clever that was and how it all ties together? They don’t just keep me around here for my looks is all I can say. But enough of that, on with the show.
To start this love parade, let’s go over why he’s being so hated by the fantasy baseball playas out there. After smacking 23 homeruns in 2011 with a miniscule .219 average, JP was still considered in near starter territory in 12 team leagues for 2012, as January Grey from last year proves. So what changed from then until now? Well a broken hand and about 100 missed ABs in 2012 is what happened and in this fickle fantasy baseball world, that’s just enough to go in the ‘ignore’ category the next year. But let’s check the stats at the MLB level. Career ISO: over .200. Career K%: ugly terrible awful over 27%. Career average: Well under .240. Why does all this matter? Because I’m going to give you a reverse of the comparison I gave you last year when I told you to draft Wilin Rosario. Don’t be fooled by the Jay Buhner avatar and the ONC moniker in that last link, it really is me. I’m both a man of many hats – I’m currently wearing a fedora…and nothing else – and many names. Last year it was Rosario that was being neglected because he carried with him a high K% and low BA expectations with a high HR potential. Well, thanks to a stretch from August through the end of the season with an inflated BABIP, Rosario finished the year batting .270. The other months? Rosario’s highest average was .265, with months of .194, .217 and .246 surrounding that and finished the year with a .289 BABIP. Arencibia finished with a .281 BABIP and a .233 average. So here’s the part where you tell me: all things being equal, why is Rosario nearly 100 spots higher than Arencibia at this point? Now here’s where I tell you that last question was rhetorical because there is no good reason, just like there’s no good reason you switched from looking at naked pictures of Bea Arthur to naked pictures of Holly Peers. You say potato I say…holy manga melons that last comparison doesn’t fit at all! What does fit is Rosario is to Arencibia what sex is to chocolate. At least that’s what women tell me. The women who only ask me for chocolate. So make JP your Nestle bar this year and leave the sexy Rosario to others. Yes, I’m going out on that sentence to make it as awkward for you as it was for me.
