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Thank Godley I didn’t spend any time last night thinking up Zack Godley puns. The Diamondbacks inexplicably sent him to the minors the other day. Inexplicably, I say! Stop trying to justify it to me! Yeah, his 4.78 K/9 vs. BB/9 (there has to be a better way to write that) isn’t great, but still! 2.39 ERA! Five straight quality starts! This is an outrage. I want to speak to a manager!

Okay, so he was apparently sent down temporarily as they recover from a 14-inning dance-off with the Pirates. He’ll be back. At least, he better be. He does, however, have to stay in the minors for 10 days now. So, no Godley-ness for a couple weeks. The D’backs called up Silvino Bracho to take his roster spot, so at least they gave us a fun name to say. Silvino Bracho. Silvino Bracho. Silllll veeeee noooo braaaa chOOO.

Anyway, as the headline suggests (or tried to suggest), we are here to talk about Dinelson Lamet and not Godley. We have only seen Lamet for two starts in the bigs so far, and this week we are going to get two more. So, do we take the gamble and roll with the young starter from San Diego for two starts this week? Let’s take a look…

The Cons

There is a lot of like about Lamet, but let’s focus on the do-not-likes first. For starters, he pitches for the Padres. As of this writing, the Padres are 22-33. As far as team wOBA goes, the Padres are second worst in the MLB this season at .286. Lamet is 2-0 in his first two starts, but don’t look for him to rack up a ton of wins for you. Then there is the small sample size, as we have only seen him for two starts. In both of those starts, he only went five innings, which is fine but not ideal (again, small sample size).

As far as the metrics go, he doesn’t have a ton of negatives. His career BB/9 in the minors of 3.8 isn’t great but isn’t terrible or even unexpected for a young pitcher. And that is pretty much the only category you can nitpick. Everything else looks solid. We are, however, also looking at a relatively small sample size in the minors of just 60 starts over four seasons. I’d love to nitpick some more, but that is really about it. He’s young, pitches for the Padres, and we haven’t seen a ton of him yet. That’s about as harsh as I can be right now.

The Pros

Through two starts, Dinelson Lamet has 16 strikeouts in 10 innings. I’ll say it one more time for emphasis and then promise I will leave it alone: small sample size. Yes, it’s only two starts, but he does have some history of doing this in the minors. His average K/9 over four seasons in the minors is 10.1. Before being called up this season, it was 11.54 (eight starts). So, while he likely won’t keep cruising at a 14+/9 clip, it’s believable that he will keep striking out an above-average number of batters.

His 2.70 BB/9 is solid so far, but like I said above that is likely to rise a bit. As long as he keeps striking people out, though, that shouldn’t be too much of a red flag. And with the stuff he has displayed this season, he should be fine. He’s got a mid-90s fastball, a plus slider, and what is being called a passable/average changeup. As long as he can wrangle his control, he has the stuff to succeed in the bigs.

Lamet is only owned in 7.4% of ESPN leagues right now, and he should be a solid strikeouts contributor in a two-start week. If you need a guy for the short term, Lamet is someone with high-ceiling potential you should target this week.

Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors represent 8 toughest or 8 easiest opponents according to team wOBA for last 14 days.

THE BEST

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Max Scherzer WAS @LAD, TEX 2.56/2.99 11.04/2.36
Jacob deGrom NYM @TEX, @ATL 3.97/3.57 12.18/3.84
James Paxton SEA MIN, TOR 1.26/1.43 10.67/2.30
Carlos Martinez STL @CIN, PHI 3.08/3.46 9.86/3.33
Jake Arrieta CHC MIA, COL 4.60/4.01 10.20/2.44

THE REPLICAS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Chris Archer TB CHW, OAK 3.74/2.72 10.78/3.06
Sean Manaea OAK TOR, @TB 3.91/3.31 10.06/3.54
Jeff Samardzija SF @MIL, MIN 4.63/3.14 10.50/1.38
Chase Anderson MIL SF, @ARI 3.30/3.39 8.47/3.30
Drew Pomeranz BOS @NYY, DET 4.24/3.57 11.29/3.00
Dinelson Lamet SD @ARI, KC 2.70/3.64 14.40/2.70
J.A. Happ TOR @OAK, @SEA 4.50/5.09 10.35/1.35

THE STANDARDS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Gio Gonzalez WAS @LAD, TEX 3.03/4.77 7.90/4.61
Dan Straily MIA @CHC, @PIT 3.56/3.81 9.49/3.71
Ivan Nova PIT @BAL, MIA 2.92/3.16 4.68/0.70
Junior Guerra MIL SF, @ARI 1.84/4.47 7.98/3.68
Adam Wainwright STL @CIN, PHI 4.20/3.43 7.76/3.40
Masahiro Tanaka NYY BOS, BAL 6.34/5.17 8.26/2.51
Jaime Garcia ATL PHI, NYM 3.18/4.36 5.78/3.90
Daniel Norris DET LAA, @BOS 4.47/3.96 7.95/3.98

THE KNOCKOFFS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Jesse Chavez LAA @DET, @HOU 4.68/5.26 6.89/2.62
Jose Quintana CHW @TB, @CLE 5.60/4.28 8.95/3.36
Hector Santiago MIN @SEA, @SF 4.76/5.67 6.21/3.47
Mike Foltynewicz ATL PHI, NYM 4.44/4.80 7.28/2.66
Bartolo Colon ATL PHI, NYM 6.99/4.96 5.86/2.44
Eddie Butler CHC MIA, COL 4.42/4.35 6.87/6.38
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD WAS, CIN 3.91/4.84 8.22/3.33
Aaron Nola PHI @ATL, @STL 5.06/3.98 8.16/3.09

THE DUDS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Ian Kennedy KC HOU, @SD 5.12/5.43 7.88/4.53
Kevin Gausman BAL PIT, @NYY 5.92/5.28 6.37/4.10
Matt Cain SF @MIL, MIN 4.37/4.30 5.88/3.77
Antonio Senzatela COL CLE, @CHC 3.49/4.16 5.91/2.69
Jeff Locke MIA* @CHC, @PIT 4.39/4.30 6.40/3.45
Mike Fiers HOU @KC, LAA 4.96/6.93 7.86/3.42
Jharel Cotton OAK TOR, @TB 5.56/4.73 8.24/3.92
Joe Musgrove HOU @KC, LAA 4.89/4.63 7.26/2.87
Ben Lively PHI** @ATL, @STL 2.40/2.43 7.19/1.12
Asher Wojciechowski CIN STL, @LAD 5.63/7.54 6.75/1.13
Tim Adleman CIN STL, @LAD 4.89/4.78 7.63/3.13

* For Locke, I went with his career averages rather than his one start
** These are Lively’s AAA numbers

All pitchers are projected for two starts as of Friday night.

If you would prefer to see the above tables as a color-coded graphic, we’ve got that too!

DROP THOSE COMMENTS!

If you want to talk fantasy baseball or football or have players you want Mike to feature, hit him up on Twitter at @mikeMaher or post a comment below!

 

 

   
  1. Bernd says:
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    Great graphic……thanks guys!!!

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Bernd:

      Thanks!

  2. Jerry says:
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    Hey, Mike. Chase Andersen or Lackey ros? Thanks and enjoy the weekend!

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Jerry:

      You too, my friend. Lackey is a guy I have in a bunch of leagues who has been killing me lately, while Chase Anderson has been killing it. That being said, I’m still not ready to give up on Lackey and think he ends up being the better value ROS.

  3. InVeloVeritas says:
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    Hey Mike,

    I just traded Corey Dickerson for Justin Verlander. Sell high for buy low. What do you think?

    Great job on The Top 100 Hitters BTW.

    Thanks!

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @InVeloVeritas:

      Thanks. Really appreciate that.

      I think that is a pretty fair trade with decent risk for both sides. I think Dickerson regresses a bit (though maybe not much) and Verlander improves.

  4. kmoney77 says:
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    This is awesome, thank you!!

    Do you like Lamet or Manaea better ROS? I know you will probably lean toward Manaea, but I’m smitten with Lamet as a young prospect throwing gas.

    Thanks again,

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @kmoney77:

      Thanks. And yeah, I do lean Manaea. But like I said above, there really isn’t anything to dislike about Lamet other than the fact he is on the Padres.

  5. mikestatic says:
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    Looks like robbie ray is getting his start pushed back to tuesday, so 2 start week for him it appears. nice work

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @mikestatic:

      Thanks. And yeah, so many rainouts and rotation adjustments this year. I start working on these on Thursday and then double check all the starters on Friday. Feels like there are always going to be 2 or 3 adjustments after the fact.

  6. King Bob says:
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    Pick 2- Straily, Nelson, Pomenaz, Triggs for ROS?
    Pick 1 for tomorrow- Gray, Berrios,Wacha?
    Thanks and enjoy the rest of your weekend.

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @King Bob:

      Nelson and Pomeranz, and Berrios. You too.

  7. Midget Mafia says:
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    Is Paulino getting two starts for the Astros? I really like how he looks, thanks for the info.

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Midget Mafia:

      I don’t think so. Sounds like Musgrove is only going to miss one start.

  8. Jack says:
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    OK to drop Senzatela for Lamet, or hold? Thanks.

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Jack:

      Senzatela will probably be better for wins, but Lamet should be better for pretty much everything else. So yeah, I would.

  9. Rumham says:
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    game changing graphic

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Rumham:

      Thanks! People seem to like it so I’ll include it in future posts, too.

  10. Razzball Crunchy Smacks says:
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    How do I quantify Jason Vargas in a trade proposal? Could you name an offensive bat that’s a ballpark equivalent for me to offer? Thanks!

    • Chucky says:
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      Vargas is a stream 4/5 in a 12 team. Pitch him at home v bottom half lineups. Id shoot for a CI type, Shaw with Milw? Moose, KC? LoMo….kind of in the same boat as Vargas….out of nowhere.

      • mikeMaher

        mikeMaher says:
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        @Chucky:

        I don’t disagree with this.

  11. Eric says:
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    Great read! Who do you like ros in a points league, Lamet or Jimmy Nelson? Will the Padres limit Lamet’s innings come September?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Eric:

      I like Lamet, for sure. But yeah, they might. His career high for innings is 150, which he did last season. And it’s not like the Padres are going to be competing for the playoffs in September.

  12. Ben says:
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    Start Verlander and Hendricks today?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Ben:

      I am in my leagues.

  13. MakeBaltimoreGreatAgain_Trumbo#45 says:
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    Trade: Porcello and Kyle Hendricks for JD Martinez

    Who won?

  14. Dave says:
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    Mike,

    Who do you like better rest of year Taijuan Walker or Foltynewicz. Looking to make trade and not sure which one to ask for as throw in. 10 team NL only
    Thanks

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Dave:

      I would go with Taijuan.

  15. Jerry says:
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    Hey, Mike. Berrios or Maeda ros?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Jerry:

      Sorry, thought I replied to this already. Berrios, 100%.

  16. Yr Never Too Old for Balloons says:
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    if yr going to remove the shit as the name of the worst category at least stick with “turds” plus it had been the oh so cute picture of a little pile of shit.

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Yr Never Too Old for Balloons:

      Your criticism has been noted. Working on next week’s post tonight, so maybe I’ll bring back the poop-moji.

Comments are closed.