Ken Griffey Jr. and Don Mattingly. Do those names ring any bells? Well Paul Goldschmidt is now two home runs shy of joining them in the record for most consecutive games with a home run. On Saturday night he made it six for six. Just when everyone had just about given up on him, he comes busting out of the gates like a three-year-old Thoroughbred at the Kentucky Derby. I toyed with the idea of writing a post entitled Paul Goldshit about a month ago, but as a long time fan and someone that’s owned him in my keep forever league since 2012, I just couldn’t turn my back on him like that. In fact, I have been telling anyone that will listen that they should buy low. Real low. How low can he go? While his early 2018 was not quite as bad as he’s started this season, last year’s naysayers are wishing they owned him in the second half.
Let’s look at it from another point. The first half of the season is over. In those 88 games Goldschmidt hit 16 home runs, drove in 37 and scored 49 runs. He also struck out 97 times with a .254 batting average. All of that is in the past. I realize it’s hard, but you need to forget about it. We aren’t going to get those plate appearances back. Now what you need to ask yourself is if you really think, given his track record, if he’s going to have a second half equal to his first. I think the answer is no. Now that doesn’t mean he’s going to have an MVP second half either. However, three fourths Paul Goldschmidt is solid fantasy contributor and when you are very likely able to pay the one half Paul Goldschmidt price you are getting a nice return on your investment. Now let’s just say he gives you a half a season of full Paul Goldschmidt, then you’ve very likely just struck gold. Literally.
Since the All Star break (15 games) Goldschmidt has hit 8 home runs, driven in 20 and scored 16 runs. He has only struck out 15 times and is batting just under .270. In points leagues that translates into about 67 points in most standard scoring systems. In his first 88 games he totaled 173 points. That comes to just 1.96 points per game. To put that into perspective Jason Heyward is averaging 2.36 points per game. That’s right, Jason Heyward. I could very easily put together a list of subpar players that would make Goldschmidt look pretty bad, but I’m not going to do that. As I’ve said, that’s in the past. Here are Paul’s points per game averages for the last four seasons.
2018 – 2.75
2017 – 3.44
2106 – 3.14
2015 – 3.46
Since the All Star break he given his owners 4.46 points per game. That’s nearly one and half Paul Goldschmidt.
I realize that hindsight is 20/20 and that I should have written this post a month ago, but I’ve been busy with the Saturday morning roundup. Unfortunately my schedule doesn’t allow for more than one post a week these days. Sadly the buy low window has been sealed shut, but I sincerely hope some of your took advantage of the opportunity, and perhaps more importantly, I hope many of you that kept or drafted him didn’t give up.
I’d still see what it takes to grab Goldschmidt in your league. There are going to be owners that are hoping to capitalize on this past week’s dominance. Some of them will see this as an opportunity to unload him and are going to be of the mindset “finally my chance to get rid of this guy for more than nothing”. You should be able to get him for somewhere between 60 to 80 cents on the dollar from those owners. Find them.
According to Kanye West, any female fantasy owners trying to trade for Goldschmidt ain’t nothing but a gold digger.
Here’s what else I’ve seen in points leagues in the last month-ish.
With 121 points Rafael Devers has been the most productive bat. He is closely followed by Yuli Gurriel (119 points) and Mookie Betts (117 points).
Similarly to Goldschmidt Jose Ramirez has come alive. In his last 21 games and 87 at bats, he has 92 points.
On the mound Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber have led the way averaging 28 and 27 points per start respectively.
Year-to-date here are my points leagues All Stars.
C: Yasmani Grandal (247 points, 0.64 PPPA, 2.52 PPG)
1B: Freddie Freeman (365 points, 0.79 PPPA, 3.50 PPG)
2B: Ketel Marte (346 points, 0.78 PPPA, 3.42 PPG)
3B: Rafael Devers (364 points, 0.81 PPPA, 3.53 PPG)
SS: Xander Bogaerts (362 points, 0.79 PPPA, 3.54 PPG)
OF: Christian Yelich (432 points, 1.02 PPPA, 4.5 PPG)
OF: Mike Trout (431 points, 1 PPPA, 4.35 PPG)
OF: Cody Bellinger (428 points, 0.99 PPPA, 4.23 PPG)
SP: Justin Verlander (486 points, 22.09 PPS)
SP: Gerrit Cole (483 points, 21 PPS)
SP: Max Scherzer (435 points, 21.75 PPS)
SP: Hyun-Jin Ryu (401 points, 20.05 PPS)
Year-to-date here are my points leagues MVPs. The difference between these two lists is that I have factored average draft position into the MVP list.
C: Yasmani Grandal (247 points, 0.64 PPPA, 2.52 PPG)
1B: Josh Bell (356 points, 0.79 PPPA, 3.45 PPG)
2B: Ketel Marte (346 points, 0.78 PPPA, 3.42 PPG)
3B: Rafael Devers (364 points, 0.81 PPPA, 3.43 PPG)
SS: Jorge Polanco (310 points, 0.68 PPPA, 3.13 PPG)
OF: Christian Yelich (432 points, 1.02 PPPA, 4.5 PPG)
OF: Mike Trout (431 points, 1 PPPA, 4.35 PPG)
OF: Cody Bellinger (428 points, 0.99 PPPA, 4.23 PPG)
SP: Charlie Morton (418 points, 19 PPS)
SP: Hyun-Jin Ryu (401 points, 20.05 PPS)
SP: Shane Bieber (406 points, 19.33 PPS)
SP: Lance Lynn (371, 16.86) / Lucas Giolito (338, 16.9) / Mike Minor (342, 16.28)
PS – In his last four starts Tyler Beede has averaged 18.5 points per start.
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