We are really in the home stretch! I will in no way say Fantasy standings can’t still move….its really league specific of course. And so is any “advice” for that matter. So, with a little bit of an eye to keepers and drafts for next year, I wanted to take a look at some outfielders that have surged in wRC+ since the All Star break, or in some cases had surprising pops for the season. Should we adjust our priors as the cool math kids say? Let’s take a few peaks. Stats are through Sunday for a change since I was lucky enough to head down to Baltimore on Saturday and go to that crazy Dodgers-Orioles game.
Ramon Laureano 167 wRC+
He looked like a rising real life and Fantasy stud back in 2019 for the then Oakland A’s as he hit 24 homers, stole 13 bags in 124 games, and provided some highlight reel outfield play. But injuries and a bunch of meh play in part-time roles since then made him a total Fantasy afterthought. The Orioles signed him in what looked like a 4th outfielder, short side platoon sort of role on a presumed playoff team. And just as not expected, he turned into pretty much the best hitter on a bad team, and they sold him at the deadline to the Padres. And he keeps getting better. On the year he’s batting .300, way about his full season peak of .268 in 2019, with 23 homers, 6 steals, 66 runs, and 71 RBI’s in 428 PA’s. That’s good for $18 of earned auction value on the Razzball Player Rater, 25th among outfielders.
He’s 31, so we obviously have to question whether a guy this age can suddenly turn into a star. But his metrics back most of it up. He’s at 90.6 EV, 14% Barrel% (88th percentile), and 50.2% HardHit% (86th percentile), all while reducing his K% to a career low 24.5% The Padres have a club option on him for next year, so assuming he’s back there in the middle of an excellent lineup, I’m a buyer. Thanks to his age, he will not go for a huge draft cost.
Jurickson Profar 144 wRC+
Well, he’s a great “ late” career surge comp for Laureano. Profar was famously the top prospect in MLB at one time, and never really did much until batting .280 with 24 homers and 10 steals for the 2024 Padres at age 31. And then he signed with the Braves and got suspended half a season for PED’s, really calling into question whether that surge was “real”
He’s backed it up nicely in a lost Braves season as he’s at an even better pace. He’s batting .261 with 13 homers and 8 steals in 283 PA’s. His power is maybe a bit over his ski’s as his 8% Barrel% would be a career high, but it’s not a big number, and his EV profile is kind of middling. He’s really a plate skills guy as he has a terrific 12.4% BB% vs. 15.5% K%, in line with his career levels of 10.2% and 16.1%. He’s a less extreme version of the Steven Kwan’s of the world, with a little less contact and a little more power. He’ll remain in what’s likely still a good Braves lineup in 2026, and I’d be a buyer at what’s also likely a middling price.
Isaac Collins 143 wRC+
How do the Brewers keep finding and developing quality players like this? The 28 year old rookie came out of pretty much nowhere and now starts virtually every day in a loaded lineup. On the year he’s batting .275 with 9 homers, 16 steals, 53 runs, and 54 homers in 402 PA’s. That’s really solid production for a guy you got off the FAAB wire in even the deepest of leagues.
He really does not jump off the page.
I got him in a couple leagues and he was a surprisingly nice find, but I’m only re-upping at a good price next year. The Brewers just keep churning out quality players. Jackson Chourio is a lock for every day run in the outfield. But beyond that, the Crew has Sal Frelick and Blake Perkins now and Garrett Mitchell presumably back. And that’s even before they turn a couple more random guys into nice OF pieces. I really need a discount here.
Daylen Lile 140 wRC+
Hey, another guy I had never heard of! In a Nats season that has gone completely off the rails, Lile has earned close to every run in an outfield filled with much more highly regarded prospects. He forced his way up to The Show by hitting .328 across two levels of minor league ball, with a 143 wRC+. He’s hitting .282 in 275 PA’s for the Nats, thanks mostly to some excellent plate skills for a rookie. His 15.5% K% in the minors this year barely moved as he’s at 16% for the Nats. His 42% LA Sweet Spot% would be 3rd in MLB if he had enough PA’s to qualify.
He’s really only a deep league play for our game. He has just 4 homers in 275 PA’s, to go with 8 steals. That projects out to something like a 10 homer, 20 steal full season. So we’re talking a likely batting average asset with meh counting stats on a bad team. And it’s a potentially crowded outfield in 2026 if bigger prospects like Dylan Crews and Robert Hassell improve. He’s a bench OF bat at best and just in deep formats
Harrison Bader 139 wRC+
Bader has always flashed an interesting power-speed profile, with batting average and health issues. His excellent glove in CF always helps get him opportunities. And at age 31, he’s having his best season at the plate. He’s slashing .270/.349/.452, all career highs, with 15 homers and 10 steals. He plays pretty much every day now in a loaded Phillies lineup.
I buy into the skills to some extent. He’s at career highs in barrels at 11.1% and a high since 2020 in K’s at 26.2%. So he’s clearly selling out a bit for more pop as his Bat Speed is now 69th percentile vs. 36th last year.. The problem is his improved batting average is likely a mirage. His 87.3 EV is good for him but subpar for MLB, and his xBA is just .231. He’s a free agent again, and he’ll get a job as he provides consistent real life value when healthy. But his career .245 Average looks like a reasonable projection for next year, so combine that with 20 homers and 12 steals as a high, and he’s likely a 5th OF or bench bat at best.
