The 2016 fantasy baseball rankings are under that link. Why are you lifting your computer? Not literally under that link! Okay, you’re thick like a CVS receipt folded in half twelve times. In years past, the top 40 starters is a mix of guys I like and don’t like. Like a high cholesterol cow, it’s about half and half. This year, I really had to struggle to find guys that I didn’t want to draft in the top 40 starters. There are four starters I wouldn’t draft in this top 40. Four! In the top 20 outfielders, I kept going back to how there was about eighty outfielders I would draft. Here, it’s kinda different. I don’t want to draft so many starters, but there’s a crapton of decent ones. As with past rankings, my tiers and projections are included for the low, low price of $19.99! Kidding, they’re free. The oxygen you need to live while reading them is gonna cost you though. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball:
21. Johnny Cueto – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Lester. I called this tier, “Fetty Wap.” As for Cueto, here’s what I said this offseason, “(Cueto) signed with the Giants. I know it might seem illogical that I went from saying Greinke, Samardzija and Price were overpaid to now saying Cueto really got shafted by having a subpar three months at the end of last year. Just not sure how he went from a top twenty pitcher in the majors to having a few bad months and only getting $130 million. I mean, he had a 2.71 ERA over the last five seasons. Well, I ain’t crying over spilled Cueto, especially since he seems like a bully. Then again, maybe Jason LaRue was the real bully. So, with Cueto going to San Francisco, they now have two of the top pitchers whose peripherals don’t jive with their ERA (Matt Cain is the other). Cueto took a rather large step back last year with K-rate (7.5 down from 8.9) and BABIP (.281 up from .238). A word (or 17+ words) on BABIP. Most pitchers have around a .300 BABIP, but Cueto always produced weak contact, which led to a lower than normal BABIP, until last year that is. His weak contact was from pitching efficiently to the edges of the strike zone, though that doesn’t full coalesce since last year he had an even better walk rate. His velocity was down, so maybe that coupled with less ground balls led to more runs. Whatever the case (Grey’s throwing out everything he just said!), I think AT&T Park and the NL West will stave off a lot of Cueto’s decline for at least a year. Will depend on where he’s being drafted, but I could see getting back in on Cueto if the draft value is there.” And that’s me quoting me! 2016 Projections: 14-9/3.31/1.09/186 in 210 IP
22. Cole Hamels – More meh, nah’mean? I will say this about Hamels right after this clunky intro to a sentence, he looked better last year than he had in some time, if not ever. He had his 2nd highest Swinging Strike rate of his career (6th best in the league), the 11th best swing rate for balls outside the strike zone and the 8th least times contact was made with balls outside the strike zone. Shorthand: when a batter is swinging outside of the strike zone vs. Hamels they were either missing or making terrible contact. I obviously don’t love his age, but he seems to be fending off Father Time with a spatula, which is the only way you can stave him off according to my unpublished graphic novel. 2016 Projections: 14-10/3.60/1.18/202 in 204 IP
23. Francisco Liriano – He has two years in a row with a 3.38 ERA and at least a 9.7 K/9. And, for some crazy reason, I’m the only one that ever ranks him in the top 25 starters every year, Grey says modestly. I get that his WHIP is usually on the high side due to walks, but the other pitchers in this tier don’t have drawbacks? Rhetorical! I understand being leery of his walks, but don’t say F to Liriano. The previous sentence was from a Play On Words Generator. 2016 Projections: 13-9/3.46/1.23/195 in 180 IP
24. Jon Lester – This guy feels like he’ll be a pitcher that, when you own him, you don’t necessarily hate him, but also don’t necessarily love him either. I’m not even sure if that makes sense, but he just produces a lot of meh in me and I don’t love my first starter giving me the mehs. I get enough mehs from middle infielders and what’s in the fridge after my Cougar goes shopping. Quinoa? Really? Wrigley also doesn’t excite me for pitchers. You get to August and it’s 99% humidity and popups are flying out. Lester’s likely safer than a lot of guys after him, but you’re moving into a zone where you either should’ve drafted a starter already or you might be better waiting for football to start. 2016 Projections: 15-10/3.51/1.14/199 in 206 IP
25. Steven Matz – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Walker. I call this tier, “Gluttony.” By the tier name, I mean I’m looking at this tier and saying, “I’ll take one of those starters…and one of those…and that one…Oh, man, I want all of them.” Am I being gluttonous? Can Anonymous hack into Dictionary.com and change the definition of gluttonous? I’m going to answer yes to all of my questions and I don’t even remember the first question I asked. I’m just bunghole crazy for these starters and I won’t stop being crazy for them until I own them. This is gonna sound straight up crazy, but I could see owning all three of the guys from this tier. I will go over how to draft a staff in a later post, but I am head over heals for all of the starters in this tier. Some of you might be thinking, “These guys *could* be good, but they’re all really young.” Good point (it’s not a good point). Out of the top 15 starters last year, there was one guy over 30 years old for the entire season (Greinke). One guy! You might think that’s an anomaly. It’s not. Dr. James Andrews doesn’t have a fleet of Rolls Royces because pitchers’ arms hold up well. It takes a lot to throw a ball 3,000 to 4,000 times a year. If I had to pick a few pitchers out of the top 20 that could disappoint, I’d look immediately at Greinke, Price and Scherzer because they’re older. Of course, Matz being 24 years old doesn’t make me love him. His 94 MPH fastball does that. His 9+ K/9 stuff with a mid-2 BB/9 does that. That many thought he was the best prospect arm in the Mets system does that. That he already has Tommy John surgery out of the way, which means he has two less years on his arm, does that. If he takes even the tiniest steps forward, he could be the best arm in the stacked Mets’ rotation this year. The only drawback will be he could be shut down mid-September, but that’s a long time from now, says my Far Side calendar. 2016 Projections: 12-7/3.34/1.12/180 in 175 IP
26. Carlos Rodon – I already gave you my Carlos Rodon sleeper. I wrote it while gently explaining to Cougs that she should try out for Worst Cooks In America. 2016 Projections: 13-8/3.52/1.31/182 in 180 IP
27. Taijuan Walker – I already gave you my Taijuan Walker sleeper. I wrote it while whipping, but not nae-nae’ing. 2016 Projections: 12-10/3.41/1.17/185 in 194 IP
28. Adam Wainwright – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Martinez. I call this tier, “Spotlight: Cardinals caught abusing pitchers.” I’m not sure if it’s institutional thing or the Cards should be institutionalized, but it feels like every year I find my way into wanting to like Cardinals pitchers, then looking at their previous year workload and getting scared off. Or, in Wainwright’s case, just don’t want to mess with him. I don’t want any part of these Cards pitchers, and, while they’re being drafted, I’ll check my email or draft a hitter. As for Wainwright, I truly believe he is getting by on good vibes and bad farts. He returned last year with a 89 MPH and a 6.4 K/9. Granted, it was in only 28 IP, but the year before, in 227 IP, he had a 7.1 K/9 and a 90 MPH. Whoopie doo. Maybe he can have a John Lackey-in-2015-type year (7.2 K/9 with a 2.77 ERA), but, ya know what, I’ll just draft Lackey a hundred picks later and forget about Wainwright. 2016 Projections: 14-8/3.57/1.09/134 in 175 IP
29. Michael Wacha – He was already above where he should’ve been for the year in August and then he pitched in September. How’d that turn out? Oh, terrific. Damn, I might be using the word terrific incorrectly there. Wacha had a 7.88 ERA in 24 IP in September. Well, I guess that’s terrific if the price of owning Wacha in September was a 7.89 ERA and he was on The Price is Right. Though, I’m not sure you win the Showcase Showdown by having your ERA closest to the actual ERA. I’m pretty much hoping Wacha gets shut down for Tommy John surgery early in March so we can draft him again next year. 2016 Projections: 12-9/3.51/1.27/146 in 185 IP
30. Carlos Martinez – Here’s one Cardinal pitcher that just said enough already and came down with a sore shoulder in September so he could stop pitching. There’s a lot to love with C-Mart — great velocity, K-rate, ground balls, reduced walks, solid team behind him…Really, the only issue is I’m freaked out over his innings increase last year. Here’s a general point on all rankings, starters or hitters, if you’re not feeling someone, then just skip them. This is especially true with pitchers and outfielders where there’s an abundance of decent guys and only five to six slots to fill. Is it really worth it to draft C-Mart (Or Wainwright or Kershaw or any pitcher I said to avoid) when there’s upwards of fifty other pitchers to draft? That’s rhetorical, homey. 2016 Projections: 12-6/3.43/1.27/148 in 155 IP
31. Yu Darvish – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Samardzija. I call this tier, “Drafting like sugar packets on Nicole Kidman’s leg.” This is a tier of pitchers that I’ll happily draft as my number two starter and maybe even get some as a number three. Yes, I like Darvish, who isn’t due back until May, more than Wainwright, who is already back. Darvish is a beast when on the mound. Not a beast like when your girl wakes in the morning with smeared mascara. I mean, a beast like a career 11.2 K/9 in 545 1/3 IP. He’s basically Kimbrel as a starter. Also, you have a DL slot, right? So, fill it with Darvish until he returns in May. As dozens of other pitchers have shown, Tommy John surgery is like one long bout of the flu. Annoying while it’s happening, takes some time to recover, but when you’re recovered, you think back a week later and you forget which days you were out from work. Was it Monday or Tuesday? See, you don’t remember! Darvish is due back in May. Reports will say early May, some will say mid-May, some will say early-June. June 1st is a safe bet, so he’ll get four months and 130 IP. 10.7 K/9 is a safe estimate, even though he should be much better, so that’s 155 Ks. Usually pitchers return with some control problems. I’ll give him around a 3.6 BB/9 and a 1.26 WHIP. Okay, could be much better, but those are safe numbers. ERA is fickle but I don’t see why he’d have a ERA over 3.60, and probably closer to 3.25, barring bad luck. 130 IP is about 20 starts, so figure ten wins. Again, that’s a very safe estimate. So, 10 wins, 3.60 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 155 Ks and couple that with a starter you have for two months while Yu’s DL’d, and, yeah, I’m drafting him. 2016 Projections: 10-4/3.60/1.26/155 in 130 IP
32. Michael Pineda – What if I told you he had a better year last year when he had a 4.37 ERA than in 2014 when he had a 1.89 ERA? Would you believe me? What if I told you there’s a man running for president of Canada that wants to build a wall along the border to keep out Americans? Would you call me a liar? Or would you say kaboom after making a motion with your hands like I just dropped a truth bomb? Last year, Pineda had a 8.7 K/9 and a 1.2 BB/9. I’ve explained this in the past, but it’s worth repeating (for those that didn’t read it the last 35 times I’ve written it). A guy with a 7 point difference between his K-rate and walk rate is more than likely a borderline ace. Whether that means 10 K/9 and a 3 BB/9 — Chris Archer — or 9 K/9 and 2 BB/9 — Danny Salazar. The further those two go apart the more likely the better the pitcher, i.e., Scherzer at 10+ K/9 and 1.4 BB/9. The closer those two rates come together the less attractive the pitcher, i.e., Yovani Gallardo 6 K/9 and a 3.3 BB/9. I say “more likely” because there’s always exceptions — a guy pitches in a terrible park, bad defense, gives up a ton of homers, unlucky BABIP, etc. The last exception haunted Pineda last year — .332 BABIP. He had a 2.95 xFIP and could easily this year have a 2.50 ERA as easily as a 4+. I’d take my chances on a guy that walks no one having better luck. 2016 Projections: 13-6/3.32/1.10/145 in 150 IP
33. Raisel Iglesias – I need to get to the end of the rankings and write a sleeper post for every starter in this tier. Raisel Iglesias, or Raise the Church Roof as poorly translated subtitles call him, is about to have his presence known to the world. A bunch of these starters that I’m calling sleepers, probably won’t even be sleepers by the time we get to April. Reminds me of last year when I said Carrasco was a sleeper in December and then by April I needed to rank him in my top 20 overall so I could draft him. He still paid dividends and was worth that draft slot, but a sleeper, per se? Probably not. Just like Raisel, McCullers, Pineda likely won’t be. That doesn’t mean they’re not worth the reach/grab/verb. Iglesias has some nasty pitches, church. Mid-90s fastball, filthy slider and a changeup that works. He even gets ground balls, which is butter for a guy that could have a 10 K/9. He projects as a 9.2-9.9 K/9 with a 2.50-ish BB/9. As we just learned, that’s the making of an ace. Raise the church roof, indeed. 2016 Projections: 9-6/3.07/1.12/158 in 150 IP
34. Garrett Richards – There’s a bit of voodoo and gut going into Richards being this high. His 2015 numbers don’t say, “Hey, wanna get into bed with me so we can stream an entire season of a show on Netflix?” They say more, “Could you put on the humidifier? My nostrils are dry.” Ya know, real boring shizz. He had a 7.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 3.80 xFIP. Yawnstipating at best, and top 60 starter at worst. Here’s where my gut comes in. He throws fast (95.5 MPH, third highest in the majors). He had a year of 8.8 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 2014. He’s only 27. I think the problem came last year due to him throwing too many juicy strikes. His Hard Contact rate went up along with pitches being pulled. The good news, he can and has been better. The bad news, he has a smaller sample size of being terrific than of being decent but not great. Moderately boring news, even if he just repeats last year, it’s not terrible. The Not Necessarily The News, I want your MTV! 2016 Projections: 14-10/3.44/1.21/189 in 205 IP
35. Patrick Corbin – This guy feels like he’s being forgotten, and might be the only legit sleeper in this tier. I don’t blame some of you for forgetting him. There’s a shizzton of starters to draft, so if you forget a few, you’re not to blame. The universe is to blame. Just as the universe is to blame for you not being able to refuse dessert and not changing your underwear. Stupid universe! You know who Corbin is? The guy that you’re going to be begging to keep pitching in September because he’s been so good, then he will pitch in September and fail. Don’t roll your eyes, my Magic Eight Ball happens to be very specific. Corbin is safer and a tad less upsidey as other guys in this tier, but no less worth drafting. 2016 Projections: 14-6/3.45/1.20/161 in 180 IP
36. Jake Odorizzi – Yes, this tier is ridunk long. What can I say, there’s a ridunk number of great pitchers. And just think, we haven’t even gotten to Shane Greene yet! Kidding, JB! For those wondering, yes, Odorizzi is ranked above Zimmermann (and Sonny Gray and Hisashi and you name ’em. Side note: I go through every team and every starter, so before you ask in the comments if I forgot someone, consider that I may not just like a player as much as someone who has already been ranked). Instead of Odorizzi vs. Zimmermann, which really wasn’t even a contest, I struggled with Odorizzi vs. his teammate, Smyly. I ended up going with Odorizzi because of his jump in velocity last year and likelihood of Odorizzi pitching an extra 30 IP. Odorizzi does have some demons, and his xFIP of 3.96 reveals some of them. If you’re wondering, I don’t think Odorizzi can become 2016’s Archer. Archer throws about two miles faster and has a slider that could make Ted Williams on PEDs flinch. 2016 Projections: 9-12/3.53/1.18/185 in 195 IP
37. Yordano Ventura – By the time it took me to write this sentence, Yordano started a fight with a girl at a bar that just wanted to hang out with her friends, picked a fight with a meter maid that was a man but there’s no gender neutral term for them, threw a pitch at a 12-year-old at a Make-A-Wish fundraiser and asked a man behind him in line at Starbucks to allow three feet of free space then pulled out a ruler, measured 34 inches and punched said man. My question is if I hadn’t written that sentence would those events still had transpired? Tree falling in the woods with no one to hear it there. So, Yordano’s a bit of a flake-slash-hothead-Slash-Axl-Izzy. He still throws 96 MPH on average from his buck-twenty frame and is still young to take a step forward from a 8.6 K/9 last year. 2016 Projections: 14-9/3.55/1.22/191 in 195 IP
38. Jeff Samardzija – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Giants. Great, he lands in a favorable place and now I can’t just write him off. One of the keys to winning fantasy baseball, which reads like a Bleacher Report title, is having a short memory and a long memory. The key is knowing when to use the short memory and when to use the long memory. So, what do we use with Samardzija? Do we write off his 2015 where he had a 4.96 ERA and a 6.9 K/9? Or do we have a long memory and hashtag never forget? In the NL West in AT&T Park, I think we have to forget 2015, which disappoints me as much as it likely disappoints you. His stuff is there, he just stopped trusting it. His fly ball rate went up, which is a terrible thing to do in Chicago. From looking at the numbers, I believe he tried to curtail homers by abandoning his fastball and using his slider more, which was not working for him. He used his slider 24% of the time, which was 14th most in the majors, and he had the 2nd worst slider runs above average. Fool me once, shame on you. In Texas, we say don’t fool me again, because it’s not cool, but, unfortch, I would draft Samardzija again in his new digs. Homers don’t fly out as easily, so his fly balls won’t kill him; he’ll be facing pitchers hitting and the NL; he just needs to fix his slider.” And that’s me quoting me! 2016 Projections: 11-9/3.66/1.19/197 in 215 IP
39. Masahiro Tanaka – This is a new tier. This tier goes into the top 60 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Names.” Okay, technically, all players have names. Even when Prince Fielder changed his name to Weird Symbol Fielder, most still called him Prince. What I mean by this tier name is these guys are more well known, and will likely be drafted before this point, which is fine with me, because I don’t plan on owning any of them. As for Tanaka, I’m being unfair with this ranking. He’s a mid-8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 pitcher, which is better than about five or so pitchers above him. He’s also good for wins. Only thing he’s not good for is tendons, and those funky tendons are baked into the rankings, which gives you some meatballs of odd origin at the dish, pho reals. 2016 Projections: 11-6/3.37/1.04/148 in 160 IP
40. Sonny Gray – By the end of this blurb, Sonny Gray is going to be singing Everything’s Gonna Be Alright (Ghetto Bastard) by Naughty by Nature. Or A Boy Named Sue by Johnny Cash. Or Father of Mine by Everclear. Or Cat’s in the Cradle by Various Artists. Damn, they don’t make songs about bastard sons like they used to. Gray has been remarkably durable. I remember I had a hangnail one day and there were 200 comments and I was like, “I’m gonna answer these with my toes.” Oh, wait, that’s my durability, me Grey, not Gray Gray or F. Gary Gray. Two seasons in a row now he’s had seasons of at least 208 IP. Impressive for a 26-year-old. Hard to believe he can’t do around 200 innings again, but that’s where the positivity ends. Last year, he had a .255 BABIP. The A’s play in a stadium that notoriously has a low BABIP, but Gray is getting lucky by those standards, and he’s been lucky in road games too. If his BABIP bumps up to .288. With that, a 3.40-ish ERA will be close behind. Not terrible if he were still getting Ks. He’s not. In 2013, Gray used his 4-seamer 50.5% of the time. Last year, he used it only 37.7% of the time. His two-seamer usage went from 14.1% to 23.3% in those two years. Pitchers often use a two-seamer for a ground ball vs. a strikeout. That has worked. He had the 13th best ground ball rate last year, right next to Yordano. Only Yordano gets Ks that Gray can only dream about. When Gray used the four-seamer more, he had a 9.4 K/9. Last year, it was down to 7.3. Gray is better than average for real baseball, due to innings and keeping his club in the game. For fantasy, I wouldn’t bank on his 2.73 ERA repeating. 2016 Projections: 11-12/3.45/1.16/163 in 205 IP
