This top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball goes to about fiddy. Last year, I said the first base position is going through a transition. The position is still deep in that transition. We’ll come out of the other side this year with a good idea of where we stand. If Pujols continues to fall, if the washed up ones are completely done and if the up-and-comers are still on the move. Hey, that sounds like a commencement speech from a school for porn. Okay, let’s get into it because I can’t count to twenty and this list goes on forever. As always, for each player there’s my projections and where I see tiers starting and ending. There’s the position eligibility chart for 2015 fantasy baseball, and all the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings are under that linkie-ma-whosie. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball:
1. Jose Abreu – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
2. Paul Goldschmidt – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
3. Edwin Encarnacion – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
4. Miguel Cabrera – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
5. Anthony Rizzo – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
6. Jose Bautista – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
7. Albert Pujols – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Freeman. I call this tier, “Stop arguing with your mother about cleaning up your room and draft.” By the tier name, I mean it’s not a total disaster if you don’t have a 1st baseman yet, but you really need to start moving on one. We’re gonna be in the muckety-muck real soon. As for Pujols, I was crazy high on him last year, and we escaped relatively unscathed. As the great Kenny Rogers once said, “I want to beat the living crap out of a cameraman!” Wait, that’s the wrong Kenny Rogers. I meant the Kenny Rogers who once said, “You have to know when to hold ’em, and know when to fold ’em.” I’m willing to draft Pujols, but I’m folding my overeager enthusiasm from last year. 2015 Projections: 81/27/96/.261/5
8. Chris Davis – Big Magoo went over Davis in his potential rebounds for 2015 post. There, he said, “Davis’s huge ’13 season will almost certainly go down as his career year, but it doesn’t appear to be a complete fluke. His power is very much real, and poor luck played a role in the .242 BABIP (resulting in a .196 BA) that he produced this past season. With little change in his plate discipline and batted ball profile, Davis will produce something in between what David Ortiz (59/35/104/0/.263 – $18.8) and Chris Carter (68/37/88/5/.227 – $17.5) provided (in 2014), and recommend him.” Magoo also touched on Davis’s shift and his suspension for testing positive for amphetamines. All I’ll say is maybe Davis was shifting so much because he was jacked up on speed. *reading further on this shift business* Okay, maybe I was thinking of a different shift. Davis will never be a .286 hitter again without some serious luck, and I’m concerned he may hit .220, but there’s few guys that could hit 40 homers and Davis is still on that list. 2015 Projections: 72/34/89/.231/2
9. Freddie Freeman – In the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball, I mention a disease often referred to as Poseyitis. This affliction happens when a player is so good for real baseball it clouds the vision of a fantasy player. Freeman’s owners are often afflicted with Poseyitis. Freeman is a great real world hitter, he’s not a great fantasy hitter. The one cure for Poseyitis is to remove player names and just look at stats. Last year, Player A: 18 HRs, .288, 3 SBs vs. Player B: 17 HRs, .286, 4 SBs vs. Player C: there is no Player C vs. Player D: 15 HRs, .285, 3 SBs vs. Player E: 17 HRs, .319, 0 SBs vs. Player F: 15 HRs, .288, 3 SBs. Player A thru E is: Freeman, Torii Hunter, Aramis Ramirez, Justin Morneau and Matt Adams. 2015 Projections: 91/20/94/.293/3
10. Todd Frazier – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Posey. I call this tier, “1st base eligibility, schmligibility. Play them elsewhere.” Sometimes I love guys before anyone. I wrote a sleeper post on Frazier for two straight years prior to this year. Then, when the player finally connects with his promise, I lose some interest. Frazier’s in that camp. Hello, mudder, hello, fodder, why doesn’t Frazier still matter? You don’t have to answer right now, I’ve only eaten franks and beans for the last six weeks and I’m the only one with my name written in all of my underwear! Last year, Frazier hit 29 homers and swiped 20 bags. Let’s take the first absurd number — the steals. I get it, whatever Billy Hamilton has is contagious. I suggest an antibiotic and the fact that Frazier was caught stealing 8 times. That’s not great. The Reds were hideous on offense last year, so they were pressing. If Votto or Bruce are better, I doubt they keep sending Frazier like a bat out of hell when he runs like Meatloaf. Next, those 29 homers. He’s in a nice park, and the lineup should add more protection, but he doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls and his HR/FB% went up a bit over his average. He’s likely more of a 24 homer guy, plus or minus three HRs. Then there’s his BABIP. He’s not a line drive machine and doesn’t have crazy speed. I bet (which is code for ‘I have nothing to prove this’) Frazier hit quite a few singles into infield holes that were recently vacated by an infielder going to cover for Hamilton stealing. I guess that could continue, but it feels fluky. I loved Frazier last year, so it comes with some sadness to say I’m likely missing out on him this year. 2015 Projections: 79/24/73/.255/10
11. Carlos Santana – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.
12. Buster Posey – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.
13. Eric Hosmer – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Fielder. I call this tier, “Trampoline’s got one broke leg, but it’s still functioning.” With the tier name, I mean these two guys should bounce back a little from last year, but I don’t expect a full bounce back. As for Hosmer, he had a 6.8% HR/FB last year. That’s silly low. Dexter Fowler had a higher HR/FB%. Weak-sister middle infielders regularly have a HR/FB% that low. Hosmer didn’t stop hitting fly balls. He actually hit more fly balls last year, but his line drives dropped. That usually means a hitter is making weak contact. Let’s go month-to-month. No homers in April and only one homer in May, then he starts pressing and hits three homers in June but .195. Shizz is now totally pear-shaped for Hosmer, Salvador Perez is giving him rosary beads left to him from his abuelita and Hosmer hits 2 homers and .366 in July, then 3 homers and .290 in September after sitting out all of August with an injury. July and September were not bad months. He’s around a 18-homer guy, which he was in those two months. Couple that with his 10-steal speed and .285-ish average and I can’t even fault him for how much the stupid media talked about his mohawk. “Tom, you should totally get the Hos-hawk.” *chuckle, chuckle, burp* That’s Joe Buck talking to Tom Verducci this past World Series. 2015 Projections: 81/18/87/.288/9
14. Prince Fielder – If I was being more fair above than Hosmer warranted with his projections, I might be less fair with Fielder. Here’s where my head’s at. Holy crap, I just reached above my shoulders and I don’t know where my head’s at. Oh, I remember now, I put it in the fridge because I was feeling hot. Okay, I’m good now. 25 years old vs. 30 years old speaks volumes in baseball. Hosmer’s 2014 can be looked as a blip on the radar; Fielder’s a blimp. Blimps don’t age well. Look no further than his own father. Cecil hit 51 homers when he was 27 years old. The next five years: 44, 35, 30, 28, 31. Prince has already shown decline, even if we ignore his unhealthy 2014. His last five years of homers: 46, 32, 38, 30, 25. There’s thousands of smarter people than me (in the world, maybe) that have done studies to show the big-bellied age poorly. Glance all the way down this list to where Ryan Howard is for a current example. Shoot, I forget to tell people to glance back when done. Okay, so we lost a few people there. Any the hoo! Fielder should be usable in 2015, but I wouldn’t expect a huge bounce back. 2015 Projections: 79/27/90/.272/1
15. Adrian Gonzalez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Votto. I call this tier, “Wha’ happened?” By the tier name, I mean where’d all the great 1st basemen go? These guys are a’ight, but they feel more like corner men. As for A-Gon, well, if you don’t know A-Gon by now, how do you have internet to check your fantasy team under that rock you’ve been living? 2015 Projections: 79/22/103/.264/1
16. Lucas Duda – I fought with myself about placing Duda even higher, but I lost. Hmm, if I lost to myself, then I would place him higher, right? Everywhere I look I see Dutch Boy because I’ve painted myself into a God-dang corner! Duda’s 16% HR/FB, 49% fly ball rate and his average distance on homers was 403 feet. Repeatable, repeatable, and yup. Duda may go by the nickname Wet Tail, but I don’t see much here to think of him as a fluke. Pun point! 2015 Projections: 74/31/90/.247/1
17. Joey Votto – The story of Votto is sad. When I contemplate it, I sob like a Russian during the collapse of the monkey space program. Votto seemed like the most talented hitter of the last ten years. He didn’t pull a ball foul for like three years in a row. You know why? He squared up everything with a gorge line drive the other way. Gorge, I tell ya! That makes the monkey-space-program-loving Russian engorged! Alas, unless Pulled Foul Balls is a negative category in your fantasy league, his fantasy value has evaporated faster than you can say, “Grey is my number one Chief Rocka.” Votto’s batted ball profile gives me hope he can still hit for a solid average, but I can’t figure out a way to project him for 20+ homers. 2015 Projections: 84/17/88/.292/4
18. Victor Martinez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until LaRoche. I call this tier, “I wonder what’s on TV.” When your leaguemates are drafting these guys, you should be flipping channels on your boob tube. I suggest watching The Returned on Netflix. Best show ever? P to the erhaps. Do you need to read subtitles? Yes, unless you speak French. Oh, stop being such a Bob Ney, French shows aren’t bad. This one is seriously amazing. (By the by, Bob Ney, the guy who came up with Freedom fries, served a 30-month prison sentence. Irony? I don’t know, you’d have to ask Alanis Morissette.) As for V-Mart, um, yeah, that’s cool, I ain’t touching him. 2015 Projections: 81/15/86/.302/1
19. Chris Carter – Everything broke right for Chris Carter last year, and he still hit .227. Marla Gibbs called, she wants her address back! Will he hit .220 this year? Will he crack 30 homers? Will he have two months hitting under .165 like he did last year? The truth is out there and only Chris Carter knows. What I know is if he didn’t have a giant month of August where he hit 12 homers and .270, we wouldn’t even be discussing him. 2015 Projections: 61/30/74/.219/3
20. Brandon Moss – When he was went to the Indians, I gave you my Brandon Moss fantasy. 2015 Projections: 69/23/84/.238/1
21. Justin Morneau – From this tier of guys I’m not liking, I’m most indifferent about Morneau. But whoever said it was good idea to draft indifferently? What are you a millennial with your can’t-care attitude? I used to go to a library to read books when I was your age, because I CARED! My fervor is at one thousand degrees and I’m boiling mercury! You’re so lazy, you spell a lack of enthusiasm: blahzay! I need a nap! *shoots up in bed* I’m back! The Coors factor has me lukewarm on Morneau, but he still has hit less than 20 homers in four straight years. Not to mention, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded come midseason. 2015 Projections: 65/19/77/.286
22. Adam LaRoche – Here’s what I said this offseason, “LaRoche signed with the White Sox to play primarily as their DH… Is it considered ‘playing’ when it’s a DH? Or is that used for positions? Is the DH a position? I feel like Ron Blomberg’s family interrogating him during the holidays. “Ronnie, do you have to run when you DH or do they have someone do that for you too?” “Ma, I’m a Designated Hitter. I do everything a hitter does. Geez!” Ron Blomberg sounds a lot like Napoleon Dynamite.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 71/21/82/.247/2
23. Mark Trumbo – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Belt. I call this tier, “You have a corner infidel spot open? Last chance, fancy pants!” These guys are not 1st basemen. We’re long out of that range. These, here, are some corner infidels. As for Trumbo, he seems old, right? Like he used to backup Wade Boggs on the Red Sox old, right? He’s 29 years old. I’d just throw out his last year since he was injured and think of him as a guy that hit 34 homers in 2013. 2015 Projections: 65/29/80/.241/2
24. Matt Adams – As I theoreticalized (Made Up Word of the Day!) when Mark Reynolds signed with the Cardinals, it could be trouble for Adams ABs, but the sixteen inches of blubber around his waist is already trouble for his abs, and I think Adams still squeaks out about 130 games. 2015 Projections: 62/21/74/.279/2
25. Kennys Vargas – I already gave you my Kennys Vargas sleeper. I wrote it while debating farm-raised and wild-caught salmon. Those fish are smart! 2015 Projections: 74/25/83/.251
26. Brandon Belt – I could’ve also called this tier, “Breakouts or bounce backs waiting to happen.” Belt could be either depending on how you look at it. He had a seemingly breakout season in 2013, but then last year he hit 12 homers in what was essentially six weeks. On May 9th, he broke his thumb, returned on July 3rd and got concussed on July 19th, sitting out until the final week of the season. This year, he’ll be 27 years old and prepared to breakout (bounce back?) for the first time (once again?). Hopefully, Belt won’t buckle and will put another notch in himself. 2015 Projections: 74/18/79/.278/5
27. Billy Butler – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Grandal. “They shoot 1st basemen, don’t they?” This tier means that 1st basemen don’t retire to the pasture, they just hang around forever as their skills diminish. As for Butler, this offseason I said, “Signed on with the A’s to DH. “When Billy Beane announced the signing to the media, he said, “Billy Butler is a signing for all of those big A’s fans.” And, I’ll go further and say, not since Sir Mix-A-Lot toured through the East Bay has there been as much to rejoice about for big A’s fans. If you are a big A’s fan, Butler’s got your back.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 75/16/86/.297/1
28. Michael Morse – This offseason I said, “(Morse) signed with the Marlins. I thought it was sick and twisted how Loria would sign all of these offseason guys with the obvious intention of getting rid of them at the first trading deadline, but this Morse signing is just too much. In the last three years, Morse has 14 homers in April and no two months combined have more. So, of course, by April 30th, the Marlins will be in first with an explosive first month by Morse only to watch him on May 1st pull his hammy with his oblique.” And that’s me copying and pasting me! 2015 Projections: 56/18/62/.262
29. Brian McCann – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.
30. Jonathan Lucroy – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.
31. Steve Pearce – Last year, he hit 21 homers in 102 games. Prior to that, he hit 15 homers in 290 games. Oh. Kay. Ow, I just got an eye roll headache. 2015 Projections: 61/15/72/.264/3
32. Kendrys Morales – When he signed with the Royals, I said, “The Royals got their replacement unathletic DH. Whew, who was going to clog the bases otherwise? Morales also fills that new need on the Royals for the Largest Player With Under Ten Homer Power. Unless they were to sign Jose Molina, there wasn’t many guys they could’ve signed after losing Butler. Last year, Morales hit .218, but that was partly due to unfavorable luck. He should be good for a .250 average as long as his plate discipline doesn’t continue to whither as it did last year.” And that’s thou quoth thou! (I got all Shakespearean there.) 2015 Projections: 60/18/74/.249
33. Michael Cuddyer – When he signed with the Mets, I said, “(Cuddyer) turned down a deal with the Rockies to sign with Mets. Cuddyer doesn’t sound Polish, but I’d like to see his family tree. If I thought Cuddyer could stay healthy, I’d give him an outside chance at 20 homers and a .280 average. Since he can’t, I don’t. The last year that he hit in a home park other than Coors, he hit .284 and was already 32 years old. Now, he’s 35, injury-prone and moving to Metco. For 2015, I’ll give him the projections that are good…for a 2nd catcher. Snap!” And that’s–well, you know. There sure were a crapton of old 1st basemen moving this offseason. 2015 Projections: 62/15/68/.272/4
34. Joe Mauer – You could take anyone from Billy Butler to Ryan Howard and say, will he be good again? The only one anyone will write about anywhere except on this site is Joe Mauer. People love Joe Mauer. Everyone realizes he only had one superb year, right? He’s now had two times that many garbage years and a few decent ones. The career .319 average is great, awesome, adjective. He’s also averaging 13 homers and 5 steals over the course of a 162-game season for his career. On what planet is his average season worth discussing anymore without the catcher eligibility? Not rhetorical! I will await your timely response, Joe Mauer lover. 2015 Projections: 70/11/61/.292/4
35. Mike Napoli – The bad news is he doesn’t hit righties very well, he’s getting old, he’s hitting too many ground balls, not enough fly balls, he’s constantly breaking down and the Red Sox may platoon him. The good news: there’s no more bad news! 2015 Projections: 58/19/64/.235/3
36. Mark Teixeira – I’m kinda excited to see how well Te(i)x and A-Rod hit this year. That’s, of course, assuming they accidentally bump into a syringe in the back of Sammy Sosa’s Escalade that is newly-painted white. 2015 Projections: 62/18/70/.239/1
37. Ryan Howard – I enjoyed the rumors this offseason of clubs talking to the Phils about trading for Howard. I imagine those rumors went like this, “Hello, ESPN, I’d like to report that the Orioles are interested in Ryan Howard. Who is this speaking? Um, an Orioles club exec. What’s my name? Um, Ruben Camaro Jr. It’s Camaro, not Amaro!” 2015 Projections: 58/20/77/.217
38. James Loney – My first baseman has a second name L-O-N-E-Y. My fantasy team has a chance in H-E-Double-Hockey-Sticks to win. 2015 Projections: 58/10/66/.285/3
39. Logan Morrison – If he were an NFL player, he would change his name to Hashtag That. 2015 Projections: 58/15/67/.249/3
40. Yasmani Grandal – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.
41. Adam Lind – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Who are you, Billy Beane?” What I mean by the tier name is these guys are cheap as fudge, but also need to be platooned. As for Lind, he should be decent vs. righties and lots of fun to watch play first base for the Brewers. Reflexes like a cat, that man. A cat that is on Quaaludes. 2015 Projections: 44/14/56/.257/1
42. C.J. Cron – I already gave you a C.J. Cron sleeper post. It put the fun in Funyons. Unfortch, The Sciosciapath doesn’t like anyone to have fun and almost immediately after I posted it, they traded for Matt Joyce. I still like Cron, but you need to platoon him now. 2015 Projections: 42/16/48/.278/2
43. Lonnie Chisenhall – He had a breakout season last year, right? Well, he hit 13 homers in 142 games with a .280 average. So, he did have a breakout…for Yunel Escobar. Lonnie went gonnie once against lefties last year and had a huge BABIP to help fuel his .294 BA against same-handedness. I.e. he’s a platoon player. I.e., sad emoji. 2015 Projections: 42/11/47/.259/2
44. Stephen Vogt – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball.
45. Mark Reynolds – When he signed with the Cards, I said, “On the surface, this seems like a whatever move that will only benefit daily NL-Only leagues, since Mini Donkey will only bat vs. lefties. Unfortch, this will cost Matt Adams ABs. Adams has spent his life struggling to find his ABs, don’t take them from him now! “If you hold my left moob up, I can point to an ab.” That’s Matt Adams locating his ABs for a passerby.” And that’s me quoting me! I told you in Adams’s blurb I had ABs and abs concerns. 2015 Projections: 39/16/43/.217/4
46. Garrett Jones – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Jones) went to the Yankees or as I now call their offense Old and/or Crappy. O a/o C is a perfect landing spot for Jones. There, they will appreciate his O a/o C. Jones wasn’t in a platoon last year, but he should’ve been. My natch’s grande!” And that’s, well, you get the picture. 2015 Projections: 44/12/52/.252/2
47. Justin Smoak – Technically, he’s not platooning. He’s a DH alternate. Usually being an alternate is only good in the Olympics, cheerleading and juries. But in front of him is Dioner Navarro and I wouldn’t be surprised if Smoak wins the job out the spring and ends up being more valuable than about twenty guys in front of him. Want a crazy flyer for a very deep league? Here ya go! Or Yago if you’re an anime character. 2015 Projections: 58/21/67/.212
48. Jon Singleton – I want to write a Singleton sleeper post, but time will tell if I have the opportunity after the rankings. He already signed a five-year deal with the Astros, so he’s not being demoted. His splits are bizarre; he hit over a hundred points higher vs. lefties. That’s bizarre because he’s a lefty. Yeah, that makes no sense, but it tells me he’s not a platoon guy. He’s just a guy that was struggling. Okay, he’ll hit for a .220-ish average, who cares? Random Italicized Voice, he’s 23 years old and he could hit 35 homers. Hayzeus Cristo, finally a reason to listen! (UPDATE: Sadly, or sad emoji if you’re under 16 years old or over 75 years old, Singleton looks ticketed for the minors to start the year, or until there is an injury.) 2015 Projections: 31/15/39/.238/1
49. Mitch Moreland – He only hit 2 homers last year, but Fielder only hit 3 homers, so Moreland could hit like 30 this year! Sideways emoticon with a brown squiggly line that is a trail of doodie. 2015 Projections: 52/12/60/.238/1
50. Ike Davis – Only two years removed from a 32 homer season. And Bill Cosby is only two years removed from you not wanting to have a lab test the cola he just handed you. 2015 Projections: 48/15/54/.225/2
51. Yonder Alonso – Where’s everyone else ranked? Over Yonder. 2015 Projections: 48/9/53/.252/5
