Hey, guys and five girls, we’re (I’re) back!  Today’s 2019 fantasy baseball rankings tackle your favorite (I’m guessing!), the top 40 outfielders for 2019 fantasy baseball.  Last year, this post had Cain, Acuña, Merrifield, Mazara, Gallo, Pollock, McCutchen, Pham and Domingo Santana.  Well, at least Acuña was able to hightail it outta here!  Those who don’t learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them.  Or is it, ‘Those whom don’t learn?’  Meh, whatever!  As always, my projections are noted for each player and where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Also, all of Rudy’s hitter projections are under that easy-to-click link.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2019 fantasy baseball:

21. Michael Conforto – This tier started in the top 20 outfielders in 2019 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Eloy.  I called this tier, “You’re Kate Upton’s non-celebrity freebie.”  Already gave you my Michael Conforto sleeper.  I wrote it while standing in line for bread in war-torn Poland.  2019 Projections:  87/33/98/.268/4 in 569 ABs

22. Eloy Jimenez – Already gave you my Eloy Jimenez fantasy.  It was written while submitting a video of someone kicking me in the balls to America’s Funniest Home Video.  2019 Projections:  78/29/90/.291/3 in 589 ABs

23. Joey Gallo – This tier goes from here until Merrifield.  I call this tier, “Joey Gallo is an outfielder?  To Whit!”  As for Joey Gallo, I went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

24. Whit Merrifield – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

25. Nicholas Castellanos – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Eloy.  I call this tier, “Remembering your kids’ names.”  By the tier name I mean, these guys have appreciated skills but they are somehow underappreciated.  Other underappreciated skills are being kind when your blood sugar is low or remembering your kids’ names.  As for Castellanos, I get that it’s lame that The Greek God of Hard Contact can’t connect for more homers.  While he presides in his Greek diner, showing his launch angle on his limp disco fry, he demonstrates how he prefers to swing his disco fry for line drives rather than home runs.  You can’t fault a guy for wanting to make hard contact, especially not a Greek God.  So, he will either have some of the best contact in the game and hit 23 homers or will make just the tiniest of adjustments and hit 35 homers with a .300 average.  I’m taking that gamble.  2019 Projections:  93/28/98/.302/3 in 597 ABs

26. Justin Upton – Shouldn’t Justin Upton be in Kate Upton’s tier?  No, they’re not related.  You’re thinking of a B.J.  In relation to Justin, not Kate.  And not like that!  The reason why I’m saying Justin Upton is underappreciated is, because, well, um, interjection, he just is.  He’s had wonky moments in his career, but a 30/10/.250 guy should be ranked around here.  2019 Projections:  77/30/82/.252/11 in 541 ABs

27. Nomar Mazara – Year after year, I expect Mazara to break out in the biggest of ways.  He has been compared to a young Miguel Cabrera (by me at least), and every year I write a sleeper post on Mazara.  This year, I skipped the sleeper post but I am still all-in.  Yes, three years in a row now he’s hit only 20 homers even, odd?  P to the erhaps, but he’s still only 23 years old.  He might not break out until age 25, but it is coming.  He needs to adjust his swing and spend some time in the Ramada Inn Launch Angle seminar being taught by Scott Boras.  I admit he will not break out if he’s at a 26% fly ball rate, but two years ago he was at 34% and he’s a career 30% fly ball guy.  If he hits 36% fly balls, he will hit at least 29 homers.  He is still underappreciated like being able to shake your humiliating high school nickname.  2019 Projections:  83/28/90/.263/2 in 581 ABs

28. Ender Inciarte – The big similarity between the guys in this tier is I like them all more than most ‘perts.  Also, Ender, like the rest of these guys, is underappreciated.  Like being able to leave a social gathering undetected.  Ender has 10-homer power, 30-steal speed and has .280 hitting ability.  30 steals might be peak, since he did get caught a lot last year, but the ability is still there.  For one more year, at least.  When you draft him, Ender’s not going to raise your freak flag, but he’s always valuable.  2019 Projections: 101/10/45/.278/27 in 615 ABs

29. Victor Robles – Already gave you my Victor Robles fantasy.  I wrote it while wondering if Robert Durst was related to Fred Durst.  2019 Projections:  78/12/47/.281/29 in 524 ABs

30. Lorenzo Cain – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pollock.  I call this tier, “AIDS with cilantro.”  By the tier name I mean, this tier is making outfielders worse and they weren’t good to begin with, i.e., making something bad worse.  The outfielders are just not great.  I’m surprised they’re this bad this quickly, so I went to look at last year’s Player Rater to see how they were last year.  They were not great then either.  Not sure why I thought they were better, but they just aren’t.  As for Cain, why is Cain…Sugar! making something bad even worse?  I.e., it’s like Nickelback featuring Kid Rock, covering MmmBop.  His ground balls went from 44% to 54% year over year.  For a guy who is going to be 33 years old in April with diminishing speed?  That is like a fanny pack on your racist uncle.  Just making something bad worse.  2019 Projections:  83/10/41/.281/25 in 557 ABs

31. A.J. Pollock – I will say about the AIDS with cilantro tier, there’s very little chance these guys are still on board to draft, if you follow my rankings.  If Robles is drafted before Cain or Pollock in more than 5% of leagues, I will eat my hat.  Granted, I am wearing a hat made of a tostada.  Pollock’s strikeouts went up 6%, and he’s now swinging at everything.  That is surely going to get worse, and don’t call me Shirley.  That is like Piers Morgan mating with Piers Morgan.  Just making something bad worse.  UPDATE:  Pollock signed with the Dodgers, because they had an itch Joc couldn’t scratch.  This does nothing for my confidence in Pollock suddenly staying healthy and I already miss everyday at-bats for Pederson.  Thanks a lot, Pollock!  Damn, I said that aloud…at a pierogi festival…in Warsaw.  I really need a better travel agent.  2019 Projections:  69/24/76/.248/11 in 503 ABs

32. Mitch Haniger – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until McCutchen.  I call this tier, “Benefits of an arranged marriage.”  Let’s see, you don’t have to waste time on dating apps.  Can’t really blame yourself when you hate your spouse after three months.  You get a cow and goat at your front door as gifts.  And, who knows, maybe your parents have good taste.  In other words, there’s obvious drawbacks with guys in this tier, but there’s enough benefits.  As for Haniger, he’s very similar to teammate, Kyle Seager.  (At least teammate as of this writing, but they might be on different teams any day now.)  You can set your watch to how remarkably similar Haniger’s stats year over year, if you had a watch with a fly ball rate hand and HR/FB% hand.  “It is a half past the fly ball rate and…Ugh, I need a Fangraphs glossary to tell the time.”  Haniger seems like a lock for 27/7/.280.  Of course, he might only have 27 runs and RBIs, because the M’s are secretly filming simultaneous sequels to Major League and Brewster’s Millions.  Get your tickets on Fandango now!  2019 Projections: 83/27/89/.282/7 in 577 ABs

33. Yasiel Puig – Here’s what I said when he was traded to the Reds, “Not sure why the Dodgers rehired Dave Roberts, but I’m impressed the Dodgers realized that Dave Roberts had zero capacity for managing a team.  “What’s he doing?”  “I don’t know.”  That’s two Dodgers execs watching Dave Roberts juggle three VHS copies of the movie Platoon.  “I don’t think he understands what we meant when we asked him to juggle platoons.”  “Yeah.”  “So, we should trade Puig?”  “Maybe trade like five guys.”  “Okay.”  So, Puig goes back to the Reds, but they’re no longer an island nation in the Caribbean.  Now, they’re in Ohio.  In five years, people will be like, “I forgot Puig played for the Reds for three months.”  Yes, I think he’ll likely be traded in July.  Either way, he will get everyday at-bats and should get a nice boost in fantasy value.  The Reds were surprising solid last year on offense, and I see no reason why that would end.”  And that’s me quoting me! 2019 Projections:  73/27/83/.273/11 in 502 ABs

34. Stephen Piscotty – He might’ve just had a career year and still only hit 27 homers with two steals while hitting .267.  Did he?  Piscotty doesn’t know!  His peripherals don’t scream that he can’t repeat his previous season.  A year that saw him finish 27th for outfielders on our Player Rater.  But the numbers don’t also say he’s going to take a huge step forward still.  See, like the benefit of arranged marriage, at least you can now drive in the HOV lane, but there’s also a drawback.  2019 Projections:  76/26/90/.272/4 in 572 ABs

35. Domingo Santana – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Domingo was) traded to the Mariners.  Free at last, free at last, thank God almighty, Sunday Santana is free at last!  I haven’t been this excited for a Sunday since the first Easter.  That one was a letdown, don’t you do the same, Domingo!  Sunday Funday Santana got so screwed out of so many millions of dollars it makes me feel for him.  If he kept starting every day on the Brewers, he would be looking at a $60+ mill deal somewhere.  And, as much as I like Domingo, it’s hard to argue with what Lorenzo Cain and Yelich did on the Brewers.  As my inappropriate uncle says about a lactating woman, you can’t cry over spilled MILF.  Like a great pair of boxers, Domingo has room to breath and I’m looking forward to drafting him everywhere again.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2019 Projections:  77/27/83/.257/8 in 533 ABs

36. Andrew McCutchen – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Phils.  Lots of talk about how this was a terrible deal for the Phils.  I don’t particularly love McClutchin’ His Knee for fantasy, but seems like a great deal for the Phils.  Listen, much love and respect to Nick Williams and Roman Quinn, even re2pect to them, if you prefer, but McCutchen’s uni number for a while was 22 so that’s re22pect, and, if you’re gonna be a contender, ya gotta make contender moves.  Contenda, even, and getting McCutchen is a contenda move.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2019 Projections: 94/23/72/.251/11 in 571 ABs

37. Tommy Pham – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 60 outfielders for 2019 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “An empty IKEA box by the curb.”  By the tier name I mean, you could have a durable, not-too-descript, usable piece for your team, but you also might blow your top from aggravation.  As for Pham, he had one weird-ass season last year.  It took him having a broken foot in the 2nd half, a seemingly season-ending injury, for him to suddenly become as valuable as you thought he would be last preseason.  He hit five homers and .386 in September after breaking his foot, and I guess getting inspired by Daniel Day Lewis’ My Left Foot performance.  His BABIP was .484 in September though, so a teensy bit high.  Like .150 points high.   Pham could be usable, but I’m not getting in the weeds for the aggravation.  Or as Ron Kovic might say, “Never get in the weeds in Pham, man.”  2019 Projections: 92/19/68/.281/18 in 512 ABs

38. David Peralta – The weird part of this tier that I’m disparaging is I liked or flat-out loved every guy in this tier in the past.  Myers and Peralta were like my baby boos for so many years.  I didn’t like Pham last year, but loved him in his breakout the year before.  Now, I think there’s just a bit too much heat on all of them.  Peralta’s previous year screams career year and looks like way more of a 20-22 homer guy than a 30-homer guy like he was last year.  Unlike the M’s, I don’t think the Diamondbacks’ offense is going to be a huge drain.  Peralta can still be decent, but, sticking with the tier theme, is he worth the aggravation that it took to put together that Wäddafäcker dresser from IKEA?  2019 Projections: 69/21/81/.291/5 in 555 ABs

39. Wil Myers – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

40. Aaron Hicks – Which players are going to be the Peralta and Hicks for next year?  I don’t know, but they’re likely in the next tier or a tier after.  I prolly already wrote a sleeper post on him or them.  I’ve got magic in my fingertips.  So, why rank Hicks, someone who I’m not drafting, before the guy who I want to draft who is a sleeper?  Because there’s just more risk with some of the guys in the next tier.  In a perfect scenario, I will wait until guys in this tier are drafted, then draft one of the guys in the next tier.    2019 Projections:  77/19/71/.258/9 in 445 ABs

199 Comments
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Kevin S.
Kevin S.
3 years ago

Sir,
As always informative and helpful. I have Mazara, Robles and Soto in dynasty so hope you’re correct on Mazara and really hope Nats don’t sign Harper.
Thought quotes were only accepted from Twain but one from Winston Churchill in exchange with Lady Astor (they both hated each other).
L.A. to W.C.- If you were my husband Sir, I would poison your tea.
W.C. to L.A.- If you were my wife Madam, I would drink it.

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
3 years ago

That feeling you get after the top 40 outfielders when you realize you have to wait through several more days of top 60 outfielders, then top 80 outfielders, (then top 100?) before getting to the sweet, sweet pitcher rankings.

The Sea Hags
The Sea Hags
Reply to  SwaggerJackers
3 years ago

@SwaggerJackers: I’m still praying we are blessed with the lovely DH rankings first!

Floggo
Floggo
3 years ago

Keep 3, 5×5 rot with OBP instead of Avg 14 team league;

Soto, Mondesi, Carpenter, Dahl, Eloy, Ohtani

Uncle Ernie
Uncle Ernie
3 years ago

Hi Grey. Glad Razzball isn’t involved in the government shutdown. That wouldn’t be so good! 8 team keeper league. Would you keep Degrom at $31 or Rizzo at $16 or neither. Thanks

Rowe
Rowe
3 years ago

Bruh
Is Adam Jones stick a fork in him done?

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
3 years ago

Breaking: Byron Buxton is in the best shape of his life. I repeat, Byron Buxton is in the best shape of his life. This a not a drill.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

BSOHL!!!!! 30 lbs of muscle!!!!

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Nobody’s kicking sand in his face on the beach any more

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Nice

kj
kj
3 years ago

If you look at NFBC ADP and your rankings, yikes! Things be cray cray. Now I clearly don’t draft off ADP, but, some examples:

Merrifield 31: So 10th OF off the board. You do need steals from somewhere

Mallex Smith: 100 and 26th OF off the board and you don’t mention him.

Puig is 31st, but looks like at that ADP you’d have no shares, as all the recent drafts he is going in 4th or 5th round.

Pham: I see you don’t like him. I still don’t know why, because the sum of the parts has always been good and he is the 18th OF off the board.

Cain: 19th overall OF (66th pick) so I agree with you on him.

Ian Desmond; He was 59th overall player last year, doing exactly what he has done all but 1 time in the last 7 years. He is literally mr. consistent.

kj
kj
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: well he sure as fuck ain’t getting traded with that absurd contract/considered one of the worst regulars in the game these days (but not for fantasy)

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
3 years ago

@Grey:
LOL lets hope not..we dont have to hang out. i am good tenant and a good neighbor..

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Malicious Phenoms
3 years ago

@Malicious Phenoms:
this should be above in the guesthouse for rent thread.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: thanks

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: sooo do we need Cougs approval before i start moving in?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: ill make a note on that.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

write? I just need a mental note, as I am not one of those nudist types..

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Malicious Phenoms
3 years ago

@Malicious Phenoms: ok lets get down to business…

how much a month for rent. would i have any bills or is this all inclusive?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Malicious Phenoms
3 years ago

@Malicious Phenoms:dont know about this resort you speak of, but i had to ask,

Matty
Matty
3 years ago

One more question today. Lots of moving pieces in my league I hope.
If I were to trade Betts (gasp, sacrilege); I should be able to get two outfielders from which tier?

12-team, OPS dynasty.
I’m always curious to see how people value tiers in 1-for-2 type situations.

Matty
Matty
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:
His salary will escalate soon- not a walk year situation exactly, but similar idea- and my three outfield slots behind him are sparse. I’m mostly just putting out feelers.

It is a blessing and a curse to have players like that sometimes, because it can be tough to justify a trade to yourself.

Matty
Matty
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:
So a Bellinger-caliber player, and a Dahl-type? Generally? I like the Trade Analyzer, but it doesn’t feel like it gives enough credit to the gravity of a situation like this.

It’s a tough thought exercise. I’ll offer Scherzer or Harper up in trades all day long, but once you get to the heady levels of Betts and Trout it’s harder.

I’m feeling it out so that in the future I can avoid being like the dude in this league who is spending 30% of his budget on Trout.

Matty
Matty
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:
Thanks. If anyone comes back with offers that can touch what it’ll take to move him I’ll be back to talk about it like always.

Matty
Matty
Reply to  Matty
3 years ago

@Matty:
And where I say “Bellinger-caliber” I obviously mean Acuna or Yelich. Common typo.

hotlanta
hotlanta
3 years ago

Grey

Which side you taking in a Dynasty OBP league?

T. Hernandez
or
M. Margot

Is it close? Who you like Long term better?

hotlanta
hotlanta
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Sorry it would not refresh and did not think the first one sent. Thanks for all you wisdom!

Anthony P
Anthony P
3 years ago

Play fake ball!
I’m a few months anyway….

Quick questions about some keepers.
260 auction 13 team.
12 keeper at value with 5 / year raises.

Trout year 2 @$67.
Machado year 2 @$53
Severino year [email protected]$1…
Gleybar yearv2 @$2…
Grandal year [email protected]$1..hate catchers..all the good ones will be gone…
Altuve year [email protected]$76…
Clevinger year [email protected]$2
Murphy year 3 $9
Robbie ray @$12
Mad [email protected]$33
[email protected]$2
Pham$2
Austin meadow $2
Jorge Polanco $2
Adam Eaton $8
M Frank $3
Doolittle $1

Obviously if I keep the big 3…I’ll have no money left at table
I was thinking trout Machado and …
Sev/gleybar/albies/murphy (in col)/clevinger

Andrew
Andrew
3 years ago

I’m in a six player keeper league. I’ve got the first five figured out. The last position I’m debating between is Matt Olson, Victor Robles, and Miguel Andujar. Categories are r, hr, rbi, sb, and ops. Let me know who you think.

Crime Dog
Crime Dog
3 years ago

January Grey at his finest. Do you think Robles bats 9th until Eaton gets hurt? I’m assuming Harper won’t be back when I ask.

Is anyone else having trouble viewing the site on their phone? Could be just me but seems like the last week or so when I click on your posts and start scrolling down my screen will eventually turn black, then I scroll back up and the small portion where I was originally will be there but everything above it is black too.

Crime Dog
Crime Dog
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: probably my phone/connection then. Haha I just assumed Eaton was healthy but that’s a terrible assumption he’s probably already hurt. Robles for leadoff!

HR to the Izzo
HR to the Izzo
3 years ago

I’m in on Castellanos this year and like his ranking / projections, but how does it compare to other consistent players? Would keeping Castellanos in the 10th round be smarter than say Rizzo in the 3rd round or Bauer in the 7th?

HR to the Izzo
HR to the Izzo
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Thanks, Grey! I have JoRam and Rhysus as other 2 keepers…..shame I just can’t keep Rhysus 3 times, he is all you need!

Hotstove
Hotstove
3 years ago

Dynasty OBP

Grey which side you taking?

T.Hernandez
or
M. Margot

Is it close?

Andrew N.
Andrew N.
3 years ago

In my keeper league we each get to keep six players each. I’ve already got the first five figured out but still debating on the sixth guy. Matt Olson, Victor Robles, or Miguel Andujar. Categories are R,HR, RBI, SB, and OPS. Who would you choose as the last keeper?

Andrew
Andrew
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Judge, Sanchez, Albies, Yelich, and deGrom are the others.

Martinez
Martinez
3 years ago

Hi grey,
No Aaron hicks? i thought for sure he would be top 30 considering he had a breakout year last year.

southside dom
southside dom
3 years ago

We have an expansion team joining, and need to offer up 3 players into the pool for selection.

If they’re not chosen by that manager, we get them back onto our team. Which 3 would you submit from the group below?

Dynasty keep forever, 6×6 with OPS/QS

SET KEEPERS
Goldy, Rendon, Trea, Rosario, Springer, Khrush, Moncada, Carrasco, Greinke, Paxton

OPTIONS FOR THE EXPANSION POOL:
Polanco, Dozier, Moustakas, Mallex Smith, Kopech, Wheeler, Glasnow

Thanks G

southside dom
southside dom
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Shoot, I’ve actually gotta throw out 5 for the expansion pool. Who would your next 2 be?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  southside dom
3 years ago

@southside dom:

Wheeler and Glasnow

Ben
Ben
3 years ago

Does the Pollock signing mean Muncy loses his playing time? Or more of a problem for Pederson and Taylor?

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Gotta believe some trades are coming- Verdugo, Joc. No room or PT

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I have seen Muncy as 2B so maybe Taylor is out? Who knows. As you said earlier Roberts is juggling dvd’s of Platoon.

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
3 years ago

I have two words for you son: WAR ROOM

Anyway you really like the last viking? I was sure it was not your style. The first season looks so low budget, the whole thing does no? Armies that look like they have about 50 guys in them. Season 3 is great, I barely made it through 1. You are right though everyone fucking dies.

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: War room? that magnificent excel file wtf. What do you call it? That situation room? I mean fuck Grey.

so does your office/guest house have a bathroom and kitchen? Why on earth does your house have a separate god damned guest house? No wonder you are house poor.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I want to rent the guest house. How much per month?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:
I never have very many questions, I do answering of questions on here more than ask them..

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Will fantasy advise be part of the AirBnB listing?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:
I could be your assistant. We could go to Dodger games and down to San Diego to scout the Padres…

Mat
Mat
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:
The last kingdom is the David Dahl of tv

knucks
knucks
Reply to  Peacecoast
3 years ago

@Peacecoast: HotRod did it last year for us. I put together Grey’s rankings ahead of time to try to save him some time. I’ll ping him if we don’t hear from him in here as we get closer to March or so.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
3 years ago

Excellent work as always Grey. You do a wonderful job, so please take this rebuttle as constructive criticism.

I’ll be the guy who says you’ve under-valued Haniger. As Mitch heads into his first arbitration-eligible season (2020), I’m betting he makes some adjustments to his swing this season to put him over that 30 Home Run mark. He’s already close. I think he takes a step forward there even if it is by the slightest of margins.

However, what I don’t understand about your post is how you can literally dog walk the two players you rank above Haniger and then rank him at #32. Here’s your projections for A.J. Pollock, Lorenzo Cain and Haniger:

Pollock — 2019 Projections: 69/24/76/.248/11 in 503 ABs
Haniger — 2019 Projections: 83/27/89/.282/7 in 577 ABs
Cain —- 2019 Projections: 83/10/41/.281/25 in 557 ABs

Now, when you compare what you believe the three will do, Haniger is as good or better in every category except steals. He’s only four steals shy of Pollock and 18 steals shy of Cain. Are four steals and 18 steals really worth that?

If there were no names on these three projections, I think it becomes quite clear who you think is the better player yet you didn’t follow your own projections. That I don’t understand.

Anyway, maybe you’re right. Maybe Haniger will stink in a horrible Mariners lineup. There’s some truth to that concern. I like him though. I think he’ll be a nice piece for another 2-3 years.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Fair enough. He is still new to the league. He could take a step back as easily as taking a step forward.

Matt
Matt
3 years ago

Grey I’m in a tough spot I have a trade offered to me that I don’t love but it’s one I may have to make because of my teams position. In other words I need your advise to enlighten my fantasy self if this is wise.

It’s a 12 team head to head dynasty format. Categories are 7 by 7: runs, hr, rbi, steals, avg, obp, xbh. Wins, saves, era, whip, ks, hits per 9, qs. 35 players are kept 40 man roster 10 of those are NA guys. Players are position eligible after 5 appearances.

My team is as follows:

C. Willson Contreras, 1b. Travis Shaw, 2b. Jonathan Schoop, 3b. Nolan Arenado, Ss. Trevor story, Of. Christian yelich , Of. Giancarlo Stanton, Of. Nick Castellanos,
Util. Khris Davis, Util. Jake lamb

Be. Max Kepler, Carlos Gonzalez, Marwin Gonzalez, Justin smoak, Franchy Cordero

Starters: Blake snell, Trevor Bauer, Walker buehler, Robbie Ray, Lance McCullers, Julio Teheran, Jake odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Alex Cobb, Danny Salazar, Trevor Cahill

Relievers: Blake trienan, Adam ottovino, Corbin burnes

Na guys: yordan Alvarez, Nate Lowe, Nolan Jones, George Valera, Helios Ramos, Lazaro armenteros, brusdar graterol, Ethan Hankins, Logan Allen.

I feel I’m a little light on average/obp, definitely light on steals but that’s okay, and I’m short on saves.

After all that mumbo jumbo, would you trade my Khris Davis and Marwin Gonzalez for Eric Hosmer and raisel Iglesias? If you could spare the time to say why it would be appreciated!

Thank you,

Matt

Matt
Matt
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Hahahah thank you!

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Matt
3 years ago

@Matt: Because you’re trading one of the top HR hitters in the game for a mediocre 1B and a closer.

Matt
Matt
Reply to  Cram It
3 years ago

@Cram It: yeah I definitely get that and agree. I think my roster is loaded with power, by chance what are you craming?

NATRONEMEANSBUSINESS
NATRONEMEANSBUSINESS
3 years ago

Confessional booth time. I’m pretty sure I’m the only person in my league who knows of razzball. I want to share your wisdom and help you profit.… But I can’t. I’m too selfish, you’re my precious. To ease my conscience I change my team name to SAGNOF just for the day preceding the draft. They should understand the google machine. Thank you! The content here has help to guide my team to the superpower that it is.

Joshua Moyer
Joshua Moyer
Reply to  NATRONEMEANSBUSINESS
3 years ago

@NATRONEMEANSBUSINESS: I struggle with this very moral dilemma regularly. You are not alone. I think it’s ok that we keep Grey to ourselves

knucks
knucks
Reply to  NATRONEMEANSBUSINESS
3 years ago

@NATRONEMEANSBUSINESS: Dood. Incredible nickname. Used to have both a Chargers and a Jags Means jersey as a kid. My best friend had a cat named Natrone growing up. That feline was a straight up thug.

Hamporter
Hamporter
3 years ago

In a 12 team AL only dynasty league. We have an auction for free agents with a $26 salary. I was offered Odor at $1.60 for Mazara at $2.10. Would you trade Mazara for Odor?

Matty
Matty
3 years ago

Trade question a bit off topic, as none of the players were in today’s post:
Which side of Scherzer ($40) for Dahl ($11) and Heaney($4) in a $325, OPS/ QS, 12 team dynasty?
I got Scherzer for Votto in a steal last year, but would like to flip him for some savings and youth. Should I be asking for more? Less?

Thanks a bunch.

Squat Cobblers
Squat Cobblers
3 years ago

Great stuff as usual Grizzzzle.

Does Pollock leading off for the Doyers (until he gets hurt) change anything?

No mention of Polanco Shoulder surgery recovery. Are you expecting a nearly full season from him?

Thanks!

Matty
Matty
3 years ago

In an OPS league would we see Winker sneaking into the top-40? Or is his playing time still too tenuous?
Thanks.

Joshua Moyer
Joshua Moyer
3 years ago

Hi Grey! Great work here as always!

Wanted to get your take on a trade I’ve been offered, a 12-team, 15-player keeper league with a draft quirk that makes anyone drafted in the first 3 rounds non-keeper-eligible the following year(changing to first 2 rounds this year). I’ve got pretty good young keepers and great draft picks, including #1 & #10 overall and 10 picks in the first 6 rounds.

The offer was
#10 overall (best players likely to be available here as NON-keepers are Strassburg, KDavis, JAbreu, maybe Rizzo or Kershaw)

for

Lester and Pivetta + a late-round pick

I know you like Pivetta bc of your sleeper post, so I guess I’m asking what you think of Lester and those guys available as a 1-year rental…

Joshua Moyer
Joshua Moyer
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: cool. thank you

Joshua Moyer
Joshua Moyer
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Hey Grey, I negotiated this pick into Dahl and Peraza (both keepers) instead of Pivetta and Lester.

You are literally the only person on earth who might sort of care a little, and I’m excited about it, so I’m telling you about this. Please validate me and say I did good….

Albert Spalding's balls
Albert Spalding's balls
3 years ago

Went Lindor over Ramirez at pick 3 in a draft. Ramirez is the consensus pick there, but your top 20 discussion on Ramirez convinced me. Helps that Rudy/steamer rankings concur.

That said, really don’t like the third pick this year. Feel like there is a big drop off from Betts and then a bunch of guys around the same value. Almost rather see what drops to me late in the first and then get another “first” rounder early in the second round.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
3 years ago

A day late for my Dahl commentary, but Dahl’s situation feels like how we felt on Arenado when you were first beating the drum after his 2013/2014 (i forgot when).

Totally different players obviously, but Arenado had been one of those guys that all the ‘perts liked as a “sleeper” but you really pushed to reach for him as a must draft, to our benefit! (too bad I wasn’t in any keeper leagues at the time)

Here’s hoping Dahl turns out the same!

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Unless his “ribcage” acts up again. He burned me a couple years back. Was day to day for months. I’m not totally over it. Perhaps I should rethink. Remember that “injury”? Could be second coming of Michael Brantley.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
3 years ago

Here’s another one:

Betts
Nola
Blackmon
Guerrero
Votto
Seager
Folty
Doolittle
Gennett
Gallo
Hader

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Two “expert” teams from the FSTA going on right now.

That first one in particular is HIDEOUS

grassyass
grassyass
3 years ago

which side?

greinke or mazara & freeland

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
3 years ago

heyI tried to find S4 of Gomorrah last night and could not find anything past season 2. Tried netflix, amazon prime, itunes. What am I doing wrong?

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  Peacecoast
3 years ago

@Peacecoast:

You have to download the torrent to watch season 3.

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Haha Can I stay in the pool house?

HarperBetterThanTrout
HarperBetterThanTrout
3 years ago

Hey Grey. Thanks for all these rankings and information.

I have a question about who should I keep. Roto league, 5×5.

I can keep 5 out of these 7:
Harper
Machado
Julio Daniel Martinez
Mondesi
Juan Soto
Scherzer
Blackmon

The 5 that I choose can be keepers for the next two seasons also (2020 and 2021).

I’m thinking on Harper, Machado, JD, Soto and Mondesi. Would you suggest something different?

AdamH
AdamH
3 years ago

14 team, 7×7 H2H (OPS and Ks, K/BB and IP added)

Keeping:
SS Lindor $21
OF Judge $6
OF Mazara $5
P Ray $12

5th keeper, who should it be (none is not an option)?
Wacha $2
Dick Mountain $7
Buxton $12
LCastillo $17
Segura $21

AdamH
AdamH
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Sorry, I should have clarified. No MI/CI. 3 OF, 2 U.

AdamH
AdamH
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I know. I am ashamed and sorry to have failed you, oh Fantasy Master Lothario.

bigbear
bigbear
3 years ago

This group is the estuary of outfielders. Some good upside, but some bad downside. Makes for interesting fishing though!

Liking Conforto, Robles, and Puig the most from this crew. Domingo and McClutchen are interesting too. They’ll probably be ranked lower than where you have them.

Where do you see Castellanos’ ADP? He seems like the type of guy that could be slotted all over the place in a big box default draft.

I think that was Delino DeShields Jr. that kicked your nads and ran off with your SAGNOF!

knucks
knucks
Reply to  bigbear
3 years ago

@bigbear: In the 44 NFBC drafts that took place from 24DEC-24JAN… Castellanos ADP is about #83 overall

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Yeah, that’s ahead of Upton, Conforto in NFBC ADP. Not “value” territory, probably just gives reasonable but not great return won investment.

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
3 years ago

Grey,
Some good work overall. You’re gonna catch some heat over Haniger so low. The M’s lineup isn’t that much different than last year (no Segura won’t help) but he should be about what he was last year. Nick the Greek tho, you’re asking a lot and it’ll be hard to get runs and RBI’s out of him wth that awful Tiger lineup. I think the general take away from today’s post is they all suck in one way or another and it’s a role of the dice as to who will be decent for this year.

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Not saying you woud deserve it just from reading the site seems like people have Haniger higher. In the end it matters little with this whole group. They are all about the same. Other than Robles and Eloy they are basically known.

Robert
Robert
3 years ago

5×5 10 team league, keepers 170 total to keep.
Jose Ramirez 80,
Eugene Suarez 10
Garrett Cole 20
Patrick Corbin 10
Ozzie Albies 10
Vlad Jr. 10
Ozzie Albies 10
Eloy Jimenez 10
Eddie Rosario 10 could you see keeping Max Muncy 10 or Walker Buehler 20 over anybody above? Only other mid grade keepers are Luis Servino 70 or Anthony Rendon 50 to try to make it work. I’m not a huge fan of Jose Ramirez but still view as first round talent.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
3 years ago

14 teamer draft standard cats what do you think of this opening 11, Albright?

Lindor
Kluber
Kershaw
Torres
Murphy
Sanchez
Conforto
Haniger
Hamilton
Cody Allen
Giles

Big Ticket
Big Ticket
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: Is that Conforto around 90? Yes, please!

Fungazi 2.0
Fungazi 2.0
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: It’s the anti-Grey draft lol

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: It’s a Razz-Trap

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: It feels like they are messing with you but they are really just being honest and because of their high fantasy IQ, well IQ in general, it make you stop for a second and think against yourself.

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: you have a rock solid stubbornness surrounded by a massive ego

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Its perfect Friedman. Cheap incentive laden deal that says yeah if you play more you get paid more but really we just want you healthy in the playoffs and not sucking. Harper and Machado aren’t smart money. I think they really want the Toronado next off-season as Turner is getting older and Bellinger seems bound to be an OF (they move Turner to 1st) because we don’t know if Muncy can repeat. He could pull a Taylor. What these idiots need to do is package Verdugo and young arms to ship to Cleveland to get Kluber.

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  BJFOHOHL
3 years ago

@BJFOHOHL: For as high a ceiling as Puig has the mental side has been a drain. I think he had good positive teammates that will embrace anyone but in Pollock they should have a more steady presence. I also think the move to Cincy was because he needs Turner Ward to function. Ward was only coach to get through to him in all his seasons. If we can get 400-500 AB’s out of Pollock then its a win and I think for the better. To quote my boy Lifshitz “Pollock will be the steal of the off-season” The wild card in all this is Roberto-Loco who can out manage himself with the best of them.

Packers
Packers
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I know who drafted this team so far. C and the W.

knucks
knucks
3 years ago

Pumped about Conforto. But it also looks like there is a decent sized discrepancy between where you and Rudy stand on him.

Rudy Gamble
Reply to  knucks
3 years ago

conforto is likely a little underprojected by steamer b/c he played through the shoulder injury in 1st half. i’d take the over on my projected $ for him. i doubt he’s going to go at any discount this year like matt carpenter did last year.

knucks
knucks
Reply to  Rudy Gamble
3 years ago

@Rudy Gamble: Good stuff, thanks for the insight Rudy.

Indingo Montoya
Indingo Montoya
3 years ago

Keeper league what do you think about these separate trades? Thanks:

E.Suarez for Blackmon?

Archer for Shaw?

Bruce
Bruce
3 years ago

Keeper league what do you think about these separate trades? Thanks:

E.Suarez for Blackmon?

Archer for Shaw?

Big Ticket
Big Ticket
3 years ago

Thanks Grey. Love your perspective. I too like Puig a lot, but was expecting higher projections across the board for him, so a couple of questions…

1. 502 AB’s is not a lot for an everyday player. Do you expect injury or just deep Reds OF leading to extra days off? If the latter, do you bump him down a tier (or two?) in weekly leagues?

2. In 2016, with 152 games played, Puig went 28/72/74 – basically what you project for him this year. I was thinking the move to GABP and what should be a stacked lineup would see that closer to 32/85/85. Am I crazy?

3. Rudy has him at 38 ($19.4) overall in 10-team OBP, sandwiched between K Davis and Bellinger. Does he outperform that position in your opinion?

Thanks Grey!

Pash
Pash
3 years ago

Where would you rank eloy….. for next year? Assuming he’s within the ballpark of your projection for this year.

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
3 years ago

Grey!!!

Fab top 40 for outfielders write-up!

a. So judging by the fact that Piscotty and Polanco were back-to-back in the final season rankings from last year and that they are back-to-back in these rankings makes me believe that we can just go off of last year’s final season rankings. Thanks for making that crystal clear!

b. Wow! What a drop off after Ender. Not interested in taking much after Ender. By then I’ll be looking to take flyers on sleepers or somewhere something will be available for better value. It’s all about value, making a value pick but for something you need not just taking the 4th SS when you have no space for him.

c. Subdued Norm MacDonald quote of the day for January 24

1. Dr James Watts, a neurosurgeon who performed the first frontal lobotomy, died this week in Washington. If you recall, a lobotomy involves drilling holes in the skull and and then inserting and rotating a knife to destroy brain cells. What a genius! He’ll be sorely missed.

2. Liza Minelli has gotten word that she’ll have to have hip replacement surgery. This marks the first time in fifteen years that the name Liza Minelli and the word hip have been used in the same sentence.

3. Former first lady Nancy Reagan reports that her husband has been relaxing at their ranch riding horses and chopping wood. Sadly, eyewitnesses report that he was actually riding wood and chopping horses! Sadly!

4. A 2″ hummingbird that waited too long to fly south and ended up getting stranded in Alaska will be flown via a commercial airline to California this week. My solution to this little problem? Kill the hummingbird!

Cheers,
Ante

Tom
Tom
Reply to  Ante Galic
3 years ago

Hey Ante just wondering , do you play in a 5 team league with 3 outfielder spots?

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
3 years ago

Really hoping that Harper doesn’t circle circle back to DC. Robles looks like Cain without the age-related downside. Love him this year.

Surprised not to see Bader here. Lots of SB upside and developing pop. Got a bit lucky last year average-wise, but I think he’s starting to figure things out offensively. I’d take him over half of this lot.

Can see Puig having a nice walk year if the Reds just leave him alone. Shouldn’t have to worry about the Reds yanking him in and out of the lineup.

McCutchen thrived down the stretch in NY after wasting his prime away in pitchers parks. He’s in a good spot now. Looks a bit undervalued.

Don’t really understand the Mazara hype. He had a solid minor league career but never really dominated there, and he hasn’t done anything at the big league level. Never topped 20 homers in a single season. 3 total SBs in 3 seasons. Sub .260 avg each of the last two, since he hasn’t figured out how to hit lefties and half of his BIP are on the ground. What’s his upside? .275/27/3 with ugh Rs and eh RBIs? That’s like hoping on Growing Pains era Alan Thicke. Eh.

Domingo seems to be a forgotten man. Still just 26 years old and a year removed from a .278/30/15 season. Nice late-round lottery ticket.

Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano
Reply to  Big Magoo
3 years ago

Hi Grey,

Love the fantasy lists!

How would you rank the following 4 players in a keeper league?

Andujar, Conforto, Albies, Marquez?