Writing for Razzball is a pretty sweet gig. The fantasy master lothario himself, Mr. Grey Albright, has provided me with a tremendous amount of creative control over the subject matter that I choose to write about. All that I’m required to do in return for this freedom is ensure that the topics that I choose to discuss are fantasy-relevant as well as consistently heap praise upon my employer (nice stache Boss!). While this arrangement is usually a blessing, it can also be a bit of a curse at times. There are so many different things to write about, so many potential angles to pursue when analyzing statistics. It can be difficult to narrow it down and focus on a specific set of search criteria. Sometimes, I know exactly how this guy feels.
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Fortunately, even on those occasions when my creativity decides to take a holiday (which is pretty often these days), it’s possible to revisit prior exercises and apply similar criteria to different groups of players. That finally brings us to this week’s exercise. Last week, we looked at relief pitchers with high K-rates who throw hard. This week? Same deal but for – you guessed it – starting pitchers. Let’s take a look at today’s search criteria:
2013-2014 MLB seasons
Minimum 100 IP (as a SP only)
K% of at least 20%
SwStr% of at least 9%
FBv of at least 92 mph
As always, to provide a reference point for the criteria that were used, here are the MLB averages for starting pitchers during the ’13 and ’14 seasons:
| Season | K% | BB% | K-BB% | K/BB | FBv | SwStr% | WHIP | ERA | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 18.90% | 7.40% | 11.40% | 2.54 | 91.3 | 8.70% | 1.31 | 4.01 | 3.91 |
| 2014 | 19.40% | 7.10% | 12.30% | 2.73 | 91.4 | 8.80% | 1.27 | 3.82 | 3.78 |
As you can see, the K%, SwStr%, and FBv requirements are only slightly above the league averages during this time period. Casting a wide net here in the hopes of catching some useful results. Let’s see what what happened, shall we?
Due to the fairly large number of qualifiers (35 to be exact), I split the results into two tables. Table #1 contains the SPs who produced a K% of at least 24%, and can be seen here (sorted by K%):
| Name | Team | IP | K% | BB% | K-BB% | K/BB | FBv | SwStr% | WHIP | ERA | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 354 | 31.70% | 8.90% | 22.80% | 3.56 | 92.6 | 11.90% | 1.15 | 2.92 | 2.89 |
| Jose Fernandez | MIA | 224.1 | 29.00% | 8.00% | 21.00% | 3.62 | 95 | 11.00% | 0.97 | 2.25 | 2.88 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 434.1 | 28.40% | 5.00% | 23.40% | 5.67 | 92.8 | 12.60% | 0.89 | 1.8 | 2.51 |
| Max Scherzer | DET | 434.2 | 28.30% | 6.80% | 21.40% | 4.13 | 93 | 11.70% | 1.07 | 3.02 | 3.14 |
| Chris Sale | CWS | 388.1 | 28.00% | 5.50% | 22.50% | 5.11 | 93.4 | 11.80% | 1.02 | 2.67 | 2.9 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 178.1 | 27.70% | 4.50% | 23.20% | 6.16 | 95.8 | 12.50% | 0.93 | 2.27 | 2.63 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 398 | 27.10% | 6.20% | 20.90% | 4.37 | 95 | 10.90% | 1.09 | 3.08 | 2.83 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 162 | 27.00% | 7.30% | 19.70% | 3.7 | 95 | 12.10% | 1.3 | 3.89 | 3.22 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 440.1 | 26.70% | 5.30% | 21.40% | 5.04 | 92.1 | 11.30% | 1.02 | 2.55 | 2.58 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 378 | 26.00% | 5.50% | 20.50% | 4.76 | 93.2 | 11.30% | 1.16 | 3 | 2.77 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 140.1 | 25.50% | 7.60% | 17.90% | 3.35 | 93.5 | 11.70% | 1.14 | 2.69 | 3.03 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 323.1 | 24.90% | 10.60% | 14.30% | 2.35 | 92.8 | 13.40% | 1.26 | 3.2 | 3.26 |
| Tyson Ross | SD | 289.2 | 24.60% | 8.80% | 15.70% | 2.78 | 93.6 | 12.50% | 1.17 | 2.89 | 3.14 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 304.1 | 24.40% | 6.90% | 17.50% | 3.53 | 92.9 | 10.10% | 0.98 | 2.37 | 3.21 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 307 | 24.20% | 6.70% | 17.50% | 3.62 | 92.6 | 11.10% | 1.13 | 2.93 | 3.18 |
| Jake Arrieta | – – – | 232 | 24.20% | 8.70% | 15.50% | 2.77 | 93.7 | 9.00% | 1.1 | 3.26 | 3.34 |
| David Price | – – – | 435 | 24.10% | 3.70% | 20.40% | 6.49 | 93.3 | 9.40% | 1.09 | 3.29 | 2.98 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 354.1 | 24.10% | 9.00% | 15.10% | 2.68 | 92.3 | 10.00% | 1.23 | 3.45 | 3.46 |
Eighteen qualifiers appear on this list. Some thoughts and observations:
• Yu Darvish is preparing to undergo Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire ’14 season, while Jose Fernandez is still recovering from his TJS and isn’t scheduled to return to the active roster until sometime in July. Beware of any news involving pitchers and Dr. James Andrews. I felt pain in my elbow just writing that.
• Clayton Kershaw ranks 1st in K-BB%, WHIP, ERA, and xFIP as well as 2nd in SwStr% out of all of the qualifiers. He’s awesome. Moving on…
• Sale, Harvey, Strasburg, Felix, Cueto, Arrieta, and Kluber all fit the “Kluber criteria” that was discussed in an earlier set of posts in this series. Be sure not to forget about…
• Anibal Sanchez, who qualified for the ’12 and ’13 lists while just missing the ’14 list due to a slightly lower K-rate than was required. His numbers here are quite impressive.
• Tyson Ross is essentially the right-handed version of Francisco Liriano – both feature similarly elite K-rates, swinging strike percentages, and high walk rates. Two of the best sliders in the game as well.
Now let’s take a look at table #2, which features the SPs who produced a K% between 20% and 24% over the past two seasons:
| Name | Team | IP | K% | BB% | K-BB% | K/BB | FBv | SwStr% | WHIP | ERA | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 184.2 | 23.40% | 7.60% | 15.80% | 3.07 | 92.2 | 10.80% | 1.26 | 4.48 | 3.82 |
| Jeff Samardzija | – – – | 433.1 | 23.20% | 6.80% | 16.50% | 3.44 | 94.5 | 10.70% | 1.2 | 3.66 | 3.26 |
| A.J. Burnett | – – – | 404.2 | 23.00% | 9.40% | 13.60% | 2.45 | 92.1 | 9.40% | 1.32 | 3.98 | 3.46 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 255.1 | 22.90% | 6.50% | 16.40% | 3.5 | 95.7 | 9.40% | 1.19 | 3.45 | 3.2 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 124 | 22.70% | 6.30% | 16.50% | 3.64 | 95 | 11.10% | 1.28 | 4.35 | 3.07 |
| Jon Lester | – – – | 433 | 22.20% | 6.40% | 15.80% | 3.45 | 92.3 | 9.10% | 1.2 | 3.1 | 3.49 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 354.2 | 22.20% | 6.80% | 15.40% | 3.26 | 94.1 | 10.80% | 1.17 | 3.58 | 3.42 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 285.1 | 22.10% | 10.20% | 11.90% | 2.17 | 94.8 | 9.50% | 1.34 | 3.5 | 3.74 |
| Matt Moore | TB | 160.1 | 21.70% | 11.80% | 9.90% | 1.84 | 92.3 | 9.30% | 1.31 | 3.26 | 4.34 |
| Garrett Richards | LAA | 272 | 21.20% | 7.50% | 13.70% | 2.83 | 95.6 | 9.90% | 1.14 | 3.21 | 3.34 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 161 | 21.10% | 7.50% | 13.50% | 2.8 | 93.2 | 10.00% | 1.17 | 3.07 | 3.73 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 424.1 | 20.70% | 7.70% | 13.00% | 2.69 | 92.8 | 9.60% | 1.36 | 3.99 | 3.92 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 247.1 | 20.70% | 6.60% | 14.10% | 3.13 | 93.4 | 10.00% | 1.25 | 3.13 | 3.67 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 208.1 | 20.70% | 6.30% | 14.40% | 3.3 | 92.1 | 10.70% | 1.17 | 3.41 | 3.48 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 413 | 20.60% | 4.10% | 16.50% | 4.97 | 93.9 | 9.50% | 1.08 | 2.96 | 3.3 |
| Ervin Santana | – – – | 407 | 20.30% | 6.80% | 13.50% | 2.98 | 92.4 | 10.80% | 1.22 | 3.58 | 3.58 |
| Chris Archer | TB | 323.1 | 20.30% | 8.20% | 12.20% | 2.49 | 94.7 | 9.10% | 1.22 | 3.28 | 3.78 |
• Several highly sought after fantasy players appear on this list. Zimmermann and Lester are being drafted as low-end aces in shallow mixed league formats. Samardzija, Cole, and Carrasco aren’t too far behind.
• Drew Hutchison and Zack Wheeler are a couple of interesting pitchers this year. Each player possesses high-end stuff, but will that translate into high-end fantasy production? Hutchison’s biggest obstacle is keeping the ball in the park as a fly ball pitcher in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, while Wheeler has struggled to limit the amount of walks that he allows. (edit: Wheeler appears to have a torn UCL in his throwing elbow and is headed for TJS)
• Garrett Richards experienced his breakthrough last season. His average fastball velocity of 95.6 mph is the 5th highest mark in MLB over the past two seasons (behind only Ventura, Eovaldi, Harvey, and Cole) while his HR/9 of 0.43 is the 4th lowest mark (behind only Harvey, Sanchez, and Kershaw). He is reportedly on track to return in mid-April after suffering a torn patellar tendon in his left knee last August. Don’t forget about him on draft day.
• Michael Wacha is looking to bounce back after a shoulder issue led to missed time and inconsistent results upon his return. If back to full health, he could turn a nice profit for his fantasy owners this season.
Are you targeting any of these SPs this season?
