Loyal readers of this blog will know that I am a strong believer in #respecttheleadoff in DFS - the notion that when in doubt, play leadoff hitters as they are guaranteed the most opportunities to score points in contests that, at their core, are about volume (most points wins, not best rate of points per opportunity). And since I monitor each team’s leadoff hitter (or hitters), sometimes I notice some interesting trends. For example - right now the White Sox offense is essentially Jose Abreu (of the 45.9% career GB-rate) hitting fly balls (because when he does get the ball in the air, it goes far), and Yoan Moncada. They’re both off to solid starts this season - Yoan has a .371 wOBA and Abreu has a .393 wOBA. For those who enjoy the Statcast batted ball stats, Jose Abreu is 5th overall in average exit velo with 96.2 and Moncada is 8th with 95.4. Moncada is 22nd in barrels per PA and Abreu is 43rd. Moncada is 4th in Hard-Hit Ball %, and Jose Abreu 6th. Shifting back to their roles in the overall White Sox offense, they’re the only two White Sox hitters with OBPs over .350, they’re the only two White Sox hitters with SLGs over .500, and as you might expect, the only two with a wOBA over .360. But in the last few games, Yoan has shown an impressive ability to be either the entire White Sox offense, or one of only two relevant batters, with Abreu being the other one. On the 24th, the White Sox lost 1-0. The only member of the White Sox to get an extra base hit the entire game? Yoan. On the 23rd, the White Sox won 10-4 - Jose Abreu had 10 Total Bases, Yoan had 9, no other member of the team had more than 4 (this was the game where Yoan needed just a single for the cycle, but failed twice. Even he’s not perfect). While the entire White Sox team didn’t show up for the previous 3-game series against the Astros, in the game before that one, the White Sox scored 11. Yoan had a grand slam, Abreu had 2 RBIs, and no one else had more than 1. And the previous day, the 17th, the White Sox lost 10-2. Yoan had a 2 run-HR. What does this ultimately mean? To be honest, not much. Yoan’s a decent hitter, Abreu’s a good hitter, and the White Sox don’t have much else on offense, particularly against righties, so there’s bound to be many times this year where Yoan and Abreu are carrying the entire offense for one or two weeks. But just because something isn’t “relevant” in terms of helping you win your DFS contests doesn’t mean it still isn’t something interesting to note and worth pointing out (especially on a four game slate with a clear cash pitcher). Unfortunately, FanDuel jacked up Yoan’s price to $3,900 today since their algorithm puts a ludicrous amount of emphasis on the past week (when increasing prices and then takes forever to come back down), so he’s probably not a play for the next few days until his price gets back down into the $3,000-$3,400 range. However, if the White Sox lose 7-3 today, and those 3 runs come courtesy of a Yoan 2-run HR as well as a Yoan single, steal, and being driven in by an Abreu hit, I fully plan to pretend that I knew it was coming all along.
On to the picks…
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Monthly Archives: April 2018
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Someone Put A Tiger In Detroit’s Tank
April 26, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 543 Commentsby: Grey
The Tigers have filled their corner outfield with eight year olds that would be friends with the little white kid from The Blind Side and Friday Night Lights that won the hearts of stoic football players. "Gotta go, Mikie. We invited, JaCoby over!" You know the little white kid aka Brandon Inge. "Hey, Ron Gardenhire, can we invite Leonys Martin to live with us?" Ron thinks about it for a second, then, "Sure, if you'll help me check my blood sugar." "Ron, no more Ben & Jerry's!" "Aw geez." Ron musses Brandon Inge's hair and they walk off into the sunset, which in Detroit is a spray-painted sun on a wall. In the doubleheader yesterday, Leonys Martin (3-for-10 and his 3rd and 4th homer) continued his recent brilliance. This was why I begged numerous past teams to give him a starting job! Also, in the do-he (totally an abbreviation), Jeimer Candelario (4-for-10, 6 runs) kept being red-hot schmotato hot, hitting his 4th homer, and his 4th homer in the last 11 games, while hitting near-.400 in that time, raising his average almost hundred points. Candelario also must drink a lot of Mexican tap water, because he's got the runs! Then there was Nicholas Castellanos (5-for-9, 5 RBIs, 2 runs, hitting .333, and his 2nd homer). It's the Greek God of Hard Contact from the country of Hekindahitit. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Pitching Profile: Buehler Steals The Show With Rendition of Danke Schoen
April 25, 2018 | Pitcher Profiles | 26 Commentsby: Geoff
This should be old hat by now. If a prospect is called up, I'm going to profile him. It's what I do. When my two worlds collide into one, everything suddenly stops, and I become one with the ball. Feeling each twist and turn, as I tumble out of Walker Buehler's hand and into Yasmani Grandal's mitt. That was supposed to be more poetic than homo-erotic thriller, but I'm not sure I achieved that. Oh well, any-fracking-way, Dodgers super-prospect, former first round pick, and Vanderbilt ace made the start on Monday... Wait for it, before being sent back down on Tuesday. It's a rough life for these prospects. One minute you're sipping champagne from between Charlotte McKinney's dirty pillows, and the next you're back in Omaha eating at Denny's. (They actually sent Buehler down to Hi-A Rancho, with the intent of adding an arm to the pen for the remainder of the week, before recalling him for Saturday's double-header against the Giants.) My guess is Buehler will be back in Hollyweird, canoodling with Charlotte once again. Here's what I saw on Monday.
Perception Vs. Reality: Mingle With Christian
April 25, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 4 Commentsby: MB
Welcome back to Perception Vs. Reality where we run through the player rater and talk about players that have been outperforming their expectations from a numbers standpoint. Last week, I mentioned how poor the weather has been and it seems that we are seeing a much better outcome from mother nature going into this week so let's hope that it continues. This week might seem like a little bit of a rerun from my post a couple of weeks ago, but there are a couple of names that are worth repeating again as they continue to crush baseballs and expectations. But I will start with a name that is new to this post in an effort to shake things up.
Points Leagues: Mo’ lina Mo’ lina Mo’ lina
April 25, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 7 Commentsby: malamoney
I thought about going with "Yadda Yadda Yadier" as the title for this week's rant, but I used that line last week when discussing the top catcher in fantasy baseball points leagues. While I would only be stealing from myself I wanted something new. If only Molina had homered three times last night this would have been perfect. I still think it's good enough, and good enough is good enough for me. Speaking of "good enough", [player]Yadier Molina[/player] has been far better than good enough. In fact, he has been fantastic. The dude's got 6 home runs, 16 runs batted in, a .316 batting average and 2 stolen bases to boot! With 69 points Yadier is in a league of his own at the catching position. Eat your hearts out Gary Sanchez owners! While you were busy drafting Sanchez in the third round I drafted [player]Manny Machado[/player]. And when I drafted Molina in the 12th, you were stuck taking [player]Paul DeJong[/player].
Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is a shark lurking in the waters on Tuesday, ready to put up a big performance for those who draft him. He is only projected as the seventh-best starter, but I think Shark is your best option outside of the three aces pitching today. He went five scoreless against a tough Angels lineup in his first time out, and that was when he was restricted to just 80 pitches. With a longer leash, Samardzija should have an even better start against the Nats. A popular sleeper candidate before his injury, Samardzija posted a 24.2% K-rate with just a 3.8% walk-rate in 2017, putting up a 3.63 Deserved Run Average. He's not a top-tier ace, but he's still a very useful fantasy starter, and people will start realizing that soon enough.
New to Draft.com? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
Acuna Or Later It Was Bound To Happen
April 25, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 619 Commentsby: Grey
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*walking through a packed hallway, head nodding at the ladies* "What's up, chiquitas? Que paso, senoritas? Assume there was an upside down question mark in front of that question. I'm feeling pretty good, and it's not just because I'm wearing my extra tight bicycle shorts that make me aroused when I cough. Nope! RONALD ACUNA IS UP! Hey, so are my letters. Preston Tucker? How about you Tuck off?! I'm so pumped!!! Seriously. I wanna make love to my fantasy team where I have Acuna." *realizing I don't know what hallway this is and need to leave before I'm arrested* Here's my Ronald Acuna fantasy. Go look at the GIF I have there and tell me you're not aroused. Don't send pics! I said he'd be up mid-April. Oops, one week off! And his projections were 74/17/77/.304/21 in 514 ABs! I need to sit down. Wait, I am sitting!!! AHHHH!!! Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
RCL Update: The Week That Was Week 3, 2018
April 24, 2018 | Our Leagues, Razzball Commenters League | 28 Commentsby: MattTruss
Week three sure was eventful in the Razzball Commenter Leagues. In fact, it brought about an entirely new rule to the RCLs. In fairness, this is a rule we had back when the leagues were on ESPN, but I thought it was nice to not carry it over. Unfortunately, as with all privileges, the few spoil it for the masses. If you have made a trade in the RCLs yet, you would have noticed that your trade went through immediately. There was no waiting period, no vetoing, nothing. You clicked “Accept” and poof, the players were swapped. Well, several very lopsided trades later and we decided enough was enough. Now when you make a trade, there will be a two week waiting period where the league can veto your trade. It takes four managers vetoing to cancel a trade. This is especially helpful in the money leagues where apparently even $10 is enough to turn people in colluding cheaters. We’re better than this RCLers! Just in case though, hopefully this new rule helps leagues police themselves so Rudy and myself aren’t in the business of judging trades. More trade talk and the rest of the week that was, week three below:
The Champ is here! The Razzball podcast is back for another week with a ton of baseball to chat up. We start the show off with a brief discussion of Grey's deteriorating eyesight. Then we jump right into the string of callups over the last few weeks. We talk Gleyber Torres, Teoscar Hernandez, Jack Flaherty, and more. Next up is some of the newsmakers over the last week, including Johnny Cueto and Masahiro Tanaka. It's another banner week here on the podcast. I'll shutup, you don't need a detailed rundown. Just listen to the damn show! Finally, please make sure to support our sponsor by heading over to RotoWear.com and entering promo code “SAGNOF” for 20% off the highest quality t-shirts in the fantasy sports game. It’s the latest edition of the Razzball Fantasy Baseball Podcast:
One of the best things on Draft.com is the ability to easily play the early evening games that are popping up more and more. Other sites leave them off their main slates, and that makes them the stray cats of the DFS world. Which is a shame, because there’s some good baseball being played between 6:00 and 7:00 Eastern Standard Time. So open up your homes/lineups to a cat like Mitch Haniger.
New to Draft.com? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
Andujar Is Hitting Everything Hard Except The J In His Name
April 24, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 689 Commentsby: Grey
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Yesterday, Miguel Andujar went 2-for-5, 4 RBIs and his 3rd homer, hitting .316, and slugging around 4,000 in the last week. I think I know what is happening here. Yankees fans, in their meathead accent, are cheering him on, but he feels like he constantly has to re-announce himself to the fan base like they've forgotten about him. Imagine how maddening that must be. They scream, "ANDUJAR?!" And, Miguel, shakes his head, thinking to himself, "Why do they keep asking, 'And you are?' They know who I am, don't they? Will I never be good enough? I guess I have to homer again." And so it goes, so it goes. When Drury returns, Andujar might get squeezed for playing time, but right now I see no way they could ever bench him. Prospector Ralph and I talk a bit about Andujar on the podcast, and I mention how Andujar could outproduce Gleyber and be the Rookie of the Year. They will know, 'And you are!' Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Everybody Got Called Up (Sorry, Acuna)
April 23, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 33 Commentsby: Lance
Each week on the Razzball Prospect Podcast, Ralph and I often touch on prospects we expect to see within the coming weeks. Over the weekend I'm convinced every General Manager in baseball listened to our podcast and decided to rid us of all talking points for our next show. Dissapoting? Indeed. But does this mean we're finally getting more looks at prospects on the big stage? Absolutely.
