Loyal readers of this blog will know that I am a strong believer in #respecttheleadoff in DFS – the notion that when in doubt, play leadoff hitters as they are guaranteed the most opportunities to score points in contests that, at their core, are about volume (most points wins, not best rate of points per opportunity). And since I monitor each team’s leadoff hitter (or hitters), sometimes I notice some interesting trends. For example – right now the White Sox offense is essentially Jose Abreu (of the 45.9% career GB-rate) hitting fly balls (because when he does get the ball in the air, it goes far), and Yoan Moncada. They’re both off to solid starts this season – Yoan has a .371 wOBA and Abreu has a .393 wOBA. For those who enjoy the Statcast batted ball stats, Jose Abreu is 5th overall in average exit velo with 96.2 and Moncada is 8th with 95.4. Moncada is 22nd in barrels per PA and Abreu is 43rd. Moncada is 4th in Hard-Hit Ball %, and Jose Abreu 6th. Shifting back to their roles in the overall White Sox offense, they’re the only two White Sox hitters with OBPs over .350, they’re the only two White Sox hitters with SLGs over .500, and as you might expect, the only two with a wOBA over .360. But in the last few games, Yoan has shown an impressive ability to be either the entire White Sox offense, or one of only two relevant batters, with Abreu being the other one. On the 24th, the White Sox lost 1-0. The only member of the White Sox to get an extra base hit the entire game? Yoan. On the 23rd, the White Sox won 10-4 – Jose Abreu had 10 Total Bases, Yoan had 9, no other member of the team had more than 4 (this was the game where Yoan needed just a single for the cycle, but failed twice. Even he’s not perfect). While the entire White Sox team didn’t show up for the previous 3-game series against the Astros, in the game before that one, the White Sox scored 11. Yoan had a grand slam, Abreu had 2 RBIs, and no one else had more than 1. And the previous day, the 17th, the White Sox lost 10-2. Yoan had a 2 run-HR. What does this ultimately mean? To be honest, not much. Yoan’s a decent hitter, Abreu’s a good hitter, and the White Sox don’t have much else on offense, particularly against righties, so there’s bound to be many times this year where Yoan and Abreu are carrying the entire offense for one or two weeks. But just because something isn’t “relevant” in terms of helping you win your DFS contests doesn’t mean it still isn’t something interesting to note and worth pointing out (especially on a four game slate with a clear cash pitcher). Unfortunately, FanDuel jacked up Yoan’s price to $3,900 today since their algorithm puts a ludicrous amount of emphasis on the past week (when increasing prices and then takes forever to come back down), so he’s probably not a play for the next few days until his price gets back down into the $3,000-$3,400 range. However, if the White Sox lose 7-3 today, and those 3 runs come courtesy of a Yoan 2-run HR as well as a Yoan single, steal, and being driven in by an Abreu hit, I fully plan to pretend that I knew it was coming all along.
On to the picks…
New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
PITCHERS
Chris Sale, SP: $11,400 – We’re not getting a sale price on Sale, but since coming to the Red Sox and ending the ridiculous pitch to contact experiment, Sale has struck out 36.2% of batters faced and only walked 5.1%, which is good for 1st in K rate and 5th in walk rate. He’s really good and while the Blue Jays have some right handed pop, Sale is the obvious cash game pitcher.
HITTERS
Lucas Duda, 1B: $2,400 – At some point, Lucas Duda will be priced like the good hitter he is. Until that time, every time he faces a righty, fire him up. Over the last 3 years vs righties, Duda has a.353 wOBA and a 12.9% walk rate plus a .249 ISO. He does patience and power well and faces Lucas Giolito tonight, a pitcher who continues to struggle mightily with a 15.5% K rate, 11.2% BB rate and a 40.8% ground ball rate.
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $4,000 – Giolito is a bad MLB pitcher right now and Moustakas since the start of 2016 has a .361 wOBA and .279 ISO vs righties. He’s expensive but well worth it, especially in this tiny slate.
The Rest of the Kansas City Royals – Giolito is really really scuffling to start the season and it’s up to us to take advantage. Jon Jay is a leadoff hitter for $2,600, and even though he’s a league average hitter with little power, he’s leadoff vs the aforementioned Lucas Giolito. Salvador Perez has a .336 wOBA and a .228 ISO and is will be $3,000, which is a pretty good price for a 4th batter facing Giolito. Somehow, the Royals bottom of the order is so bad, I can’t even recommend them vs Giolito, and it’s an open question whether or not you would actually want some of the better hitting pitchers (in the non Ohtani division) hitting instead of them.
Mookie Betts, OF: $4,800 & JD Martinez, OF: $4,000 – Estrada last year struck 21.8% and walked 8.8% of batters faced, and combined that with a 30.3% ground ball rate. Estrada gave up home runs by the bushel to both lefties and righties (1.51 per 9 vs lefties and 1.49 per 9 vs righties). Mookie and JD are pretty good hitters and since 2016 vs righties, Mookie has a .208 ISO and Martinez has had a .293 ISO. Both Mookie and JD hit balls pretty hard, pretty consistently. Mookie is 28th in average exit velocity and and 3rd in barrels per PA this year and JD Martinez is 2nd in barrels per PA and 9th in average exit velocity.
Chicago Cubs – Chase Anderson doesn’t seem that bad, but since the start of 2016 he has an average-ish K rate (20.6%) and average-ish walk rate (7.8%), but combined with an extreme fly ball tendencies (37.8% ground balls) means that he’s some to target. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber are the top plays. Since 2016, Bryant has a .397 wOBA with a .244 ISO, Rizzo has a .375 wOBA and a .218 ISO and Schwarber .365 wOBA and .292 ISO. Willson Contreras and Javier Baez are the next tier down with a .350 wOBA and .206 ISO and .342 wOBA and .238 ISO respectively.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Finally a day with no rain, although it’s only 4 games, so it’s not like we have a lot of chances for rain.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Lucas Giolito and Yoan Moncada is a recipe for the over of 8.5 in Kansas City.
