We got fantasy starters! *rings a town crier bell* We got the top 60 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball! There’s a “So many starters to draft” theme cutting through the starters rankings, and that theme continues. Also, Razzball Subscriptions are up and running, and that comes with our online Fantasy Baseball War Room. Here’s Steamer’s 2024 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2024 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball:
NOTE I: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.
NOTE II: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.
NOTE III: Bdon and I discuss the starters:
CLICK BACK TO TOP 40 STARTERS
41. Bryan Woo – This tier started in the top 40 starters. This tier goes until King. I called this tier, “Bosom buddies.” As for Brown, my point in Baz’s blurb, and really the point to make for every starter post and blurb: I like this guy and don’t like this guy, but what to actually expect from each guy? Well, Shruggy Emoji, give them a shrug. I know what to hopefully expect, but go back to the top 40 starters and see the top 15 starters from last year in the Verlander blurb. This is vibes as much as anything. Oh, I have good vibes, more than most. What do I expect from Woo? Lots of Woo’ing. What could go wrong? His command wasn’t great last year, he’s only coming off a rookie year, so he’ll have more ups and downs in 2024, before settling in and being great in 2025. The elements are here for Woo to be an ace, but will it be this year? I don’t know. Similar to Baz and Hunter Brown in that respect. 2024 Projections: 9-8/3.88/1.18/138 in 132 IP
42. Ryan Pepiot – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Traded to the Rays. I don’t wanna be Mr. Everything The Rays Touch Is Good, but Mr. Everything The Rays Touch Is Good does have a long and glorious track record with touching stuff. As mentioned after the opening, I’ve started rolling out my rankings, and I swear I had already written this, “Pepiot first 78 1/3 IP in the majors with a 2.76 ERA would be the kind of stuff that would have some teams slotting him as their potential ace. Not even bad teams — if the Rays had Pepiot, he’s a potential ace. The Dodgers, how’sever, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him have ten games started, then another 20 appearances as a middle reliever.” And that’s me quoting future me! Guys and five girls, this is excellent news for Pepiot. Who’s better for 2024 fantasy when factoring draft price, Pepiot or Glasnow? I kinda think Pepiot. There is a small caveat; Pepiot might not be able to throw more than 120 IP. The good news/bad news part of this, though, is the Rays are the type of team to throw him for 140+ IP for two years until he needs elbow surgery. There should be laws to what the Rays do to their pitchers’ arms, but, until there are here we are.” And that’s me quoting future me and past me! 2024 Projections: 8-6/3.64/1.14/148 in 138 IP
43. Michael King – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Going to the Padres. Was one of the big pieces headed that way. (The other, Drew Thorpe, I’m sure will be covered by Itch. Also, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez and Kyle Higashioka, who can be defined as, “Hmm, well, okay,” will be headed to San Diego.) King is the most interesting for us. He went 4-8/2.75/1.15/127 in 104 2/3 IP with nine games started. One has to think he’ll stay stretched and go as a starter. His 10.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 are intriguing with a 95 MPH fastball and 82 MPH curve. He was actually better as a starter than a reliever, but neither were huge sample sizes — that’s what she derisively said! I’m absolutely intrigued for fantasy, and think this might be the biggest gainer from this trade, including Soto.” And that’s me copying and pasting me! 2024 Projections: 7-9/3.47/1.18/156 in 134 IP
44. Nathan Eovaldi – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Lugo. I call this tier, “Dorf on Golf Presents: Fore!” This tier is filled with fourth starters who could go way wide of their intended target. I’m drafting them, but there’s a reason these guys aren’t number twos or threes. Most tiers have some commonality. Maybe they’re 8-ish K/9 and 2.5-ish BB/9 guys? Maybe they’re 9-ish K/9 and 2-ish BB/9 guys? Something like that. This tier? There’s nothing in common, except I like them a little bit more than the next favorable tier and a little bit less than the last. If the last tier was low number threes or high number fours, this is “just okay” number fours. When I release my pitchers’ pairing tool, you’ll see you can draft from the last tier or this tier at the same time. So, I usually say one tier’s players are all interchangeable, but is there any difference between, say, Ober and Eovaldi? Meh, Eovaldi feels safer for IP, Ober is more upside, but they’re not that different.
As for Eovaldi, his walk rate went up, so I decided to drill down to try to figure why, spent more time than I care to admit (three minutes), and I came away with people were chasing a lot less. Was he tipping his fastball? Was it because he lost velocity so hitters weren’t as fooled? It all feels like grasps at straws and why I hate some fantasy analysis. People diagnosis an issue but at the end of the day it’s like: So? Can he be good this year? Can he fix his issues? I can tell you he was tipping, but can I tell you he can fix himself? No. Eovaldi has a 3.87 ERA or lower the last four years and solid command three of four years, so? Yes, he seems fine. If anything, he’s a 2nd half sell. 2024 Projections: 11-9/3.79/1.16/154 in 164 IP
45. Charlie Morton – Feel like I’m the only guy who still likes Morton. This Morton guy is worth his salt! I’m so sorry. There’s no apology big enough for that awful dad joke, but you just have to take my word for it that I won’t do it again. Won’t forgive me for my Morton pun? Wow, so salty! Damn it! I promised you, and I immediately went back on that. There’s no apology I can possibly give, but if you forgive me, I promise no more salt puns. C’mon, let’s shake on it! Damn it! Gotcha again! Any hoo! Morton was in this tier last year, and went out and had yet another solid year. He ended up the 38th highest starter on the Player Rater, and had a bizarrely terrible year for command. He’s too old to lose command; you lose velocity, not location. Could see a big bounce back for Morton, or at least a repeat of last year with less Ks and walks. 2024 Projections: 13-8/3.74/1.25/172 in 157 IP
46. Aaron Civale – As much as it sounds a little crackers in the medulla oblongata, Civale’s one great attribute is: The Rays seem to like him. I let out a small cackle that that was an actual reason to like a guy. Look at this: 7.5 K/9, 2.7 vs. 9.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 for 1st half vs. 2nd half. That before and after picture is more noticeable than Oprah taking fat out of her wagon and putting it in a wheelie-wagon. Hilariously, everything you care about (ratios) went south when Civale headed in that direction. His Guards’ ERA was 2.34 and 5.36 on the Rays. His WHIP went from 1.04 to 1.37. So, why is this someone to draft? His K/BB also went from 2.6 to 5.3 and his BABIP went from .245 to .319, so unlucky. Also: Aaron Civale sleeper by Coolwhip 2024 Projections: 10-7/3.60/1.14/139 in 148 IP
47. Nick Pivetta – His last year is what you get when Pivetta is finally The Pivetta Everyone Expected For Six Years. The Pivetta Everyone Expected For Six Years is what you get when it’s The Pivetta Who Has His Fastball and Slider Working All Year. The Pivetta Who Has His Fastball and Slider Working All Year is The Pivetta You Want, The Pivetta You Want Is The One You’re Getting? Why Am I Still Making Like These Are Titles? So, it looks like he had the most extension on his pitches, and it led to his best results (his slider was basically unhittable, fastball wasn’t much easier). If he can maintain this look, and extra velocity, he can look as solid as last year. Little iffy, but everyone is at this point. 2024 Projections: 11-8/3.87/1.26/202 in 174 IP
48. Sonny Gray – Already went over him when he signed, “Signed with the Cardinals. I will say this for the Cardinals staff, they are some eaters, and I’m not talking specifically about Lance Lynn. I’m saying they will eat innings. Cardinals might be the one team that gets to next October and has starters who can go seven innings. I’m a fan of Gray. [quickly turns head to mirror] Thank you. I nearly wrote a sleeper post for Sonny Gray, but I was afraid I’d be laughed out of the industry, because it’s okay to look slovenly or live in the basement of one’s mother, but don’t you dare call a guy a sleeper who people know. My thought was, from early drafts, it seems like Gray is being drafted way too late, but more shares for me.” And that’s me quoting me! UPDATE: Out with a hammy, so I took a few starts off him and lowered him in the rankings. 2024 Projections: 9-8/3.21/1.14/157 in 160 IP
49. Braxton Garrett – Already gave you my Braxton Garrett sleeper. It was written while eating a funnel cake. UPDATE: Starting the year on the IL, so removed a few starts and lowered him. 2024 Projections: 8-6/3.58/1.12/142 in 138 IP
50. Justin Verlander – It doesn’t matter if someone is 41 or 22 years old. All that matters is their command. As long as Verlander is 2.5 BB/9 or under, think we’re okie dokie. Am I expecting 200 IP and 250 Ks? No, that’s why he’s ranked down here. I’m picturing a team where I have Bassitt, Verlander and Ed-Rod and doing a little shrug and having the least exciting fantasy staff, but one that will finish top three in ERA and WHIP. Supplement that with some jacked to the gills closers and middle relievers who give boku Ks, and I think you’re gonna be okay. One of my favorite types of fantasy staffs is the type that has people looking at it at drafts, and thinking, “Grey didn’t get a number two, but instead he did a number two,” and finishing in the top three in pitching. For reference point, I’m going to show you the top 15 starters from last year’s Player Rater and you tell me if you drafted them anywhere near the top 15 starters. UPDATE: Won’t start the year healthy. Think the Astros are just being cautious, and I’m not overly worried, but I also have dirt younger than him. 2024 Projections: 9-6/3.42/1.15/119 in 138 IP
51. Seth Lugo – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Royals. All the big dominoes are falling now! I kid with sarcasm because I care. I actually like Lugo. In 641 career innings, he has a 3.50 ERA and 9.1 K/9 and 2/4 BB/9. I know a lot of that time was spent in middle relief, but A) Last year he did it as a starter. B) It was the idiot Mets using him as a reliever when he should’ve been a starter. C) There’s no C. D) Seriously, the Mets, man. E) There wasn’t a C or really a D, you think there’s an E? F) Jesus, stop listing letters, there’s no more reasons! It was mostly just the Mets anyway. G) Forget it, I give up. Make up a reason. H) Santa Ana winds. I) don’t know. J) Mets! It was always the Mets!” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 8-12/3.62/1.18/156 in 154 IP
52. Cristian Javier – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Eury. I call this tier, “FAFO.” That stands for Fudge Around, Find Out, only I didn’t say fudge, I said the mother of all curse words. You can fudge around with these guys, but, and I am Charleston Chew’sing my words careful here, I would not. One quick word about the rankings, in general. In every league, a guy like EdRod is available after Javier is drafted (or other guys in this tier), so I’m saying don’t draft these guys, but it’s pretty moot. If you get in a situation where one of the guys in this tier falls, can you draft them? Sure, you can do whatever you want. I wouldn’t draft them for reasons I will go over.
As for Javier, that people are drafting him way before this point has me thinking people either didn’t roster him last year, didn’t follow what he did to those who did roster him or are some sick ducks, as my autocorrect would say. Are you out on a pond with the sniffles? Cause you might be a sick duck. Assuming you’re not a sick duck, Javier was broke for four months last year, and there’s no reason to think he’s suddenly fixed now. Also, there’s gonna be a narrative this year that Dusty left the Astros and it hurt them, but that’s not going to be accurate. They were already fading, he just knew when to take himself out, unlike his pitchers. 2024 Projections: 11-6/4.09/1.25/186 in 177 IP
53. Chris Sale – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Traded to the Braves. Okay, if the Braves turn Sale into a great pitcher again, they’re absolutely cheating. What I have been noticing more and more is teams are like, “Give us this great pitcher for 80-120 IP, then we’ll piece together the rest of our shizz.” Sale + AJ Smith-Shawver = Sale with ASS, but not lowercase ass, as long as Sale doesn’t get butt-hurt and throw a tantrum. With all that said, still better in real baseball than fantasy. I see Mitch Keller, Braxton Garrett, Hunter Brown or Michael King, all guys going in drafts within ten spots of Sale. Then throw-in age, health history, the fact that Sale hasn’t been good since, oh, I don’t know, 2018, and you really have to ask yourself, what are you doing drafting him?” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 10-6/3.84/1.14/138 in 115 IP
54. Max Scherzer – Had back surgery and is out until June or July. Ever since Clemens’s final season when he returned in June for a few months, I think older players remember that and teams see some value in it. If they can get 100 IP from an older pitcher who is great for stretches, but no longer stretches great, they’ll take it. For fantasy? Meh, it’s not great. Oh, if you don’t know Scherzer by this point, can I direct you to my 2010 sleeper post and all 56,000 mentions since? 2024 Projections: 7-3/3.71/1.14/126 in 108 IP
55. Shane Bieber – A lot of guys I can tell you more or less what they did last year. I forgot how much Bieber sucked. Wow, he wasn’t just bad, he was hurt too. I just googled his name for the latest news, and it said the Guards are listening to trade offers. Ya think?! Hey, I’m listening to trade offers for any or all thousand of my Gregg Jefferies rookie cards. Seriously, OBO. Ring me up! 2024 Projections: 7-9/4.02/1.27/131 in 154 IP
60. Lucas Giolito – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Red Sox. [hands in prayer formation] All of those 465-foot homers are going to become 118 MPH singles off the wall! Can’t spell Lucas Giolito without Las go! It’s not quite Let’s Go, but I also can’t recommend him in any way, so that’s kind of perfect. Best part of this is likely that the Red Sox now won’t be tempted to insert Whitlock into the rotation. Is that a huge positive? No, but neither is Giolito.” And that’s me quoting me! UPDATE: Partially torn UCL and flexor strain, so he’s not draftable in the top 500 (starters). Removing him from the rankings. 2024 Projections: 11-13/4.34/1.35/208 in 188 IP
56. Carlos Rodon – He is so dope if he’s healthy. He hasn’t been healthy in roughly [doing quick math that is taking me so long that you can’t really call it ‘quick’ anymore] like 20 months! It’s been a while! ACKSUALLY, he gave up 8 ER vs. the Royals in his final start last year, so I don’t know if he’s even healthy now. Seeing people say he’s a bargain, and, I guess, he is, in that you don’t have to spend much to IL him all season. 2024 Projections: 7-7/4.05/1.31/119 in 109 IP
57. Eury Perez – If early NFBC ADP is any indication, I’m out on Eury this year. Ha! I know! I just said I was all-in on these guys. But that’s within reason. It’s not because I don’t love Eury, but I clearly love him less than some of the early drafters at NFBC. He’s going as a number one, and I just don’t see it. Making sure I wasn’t batshizz crazy, I did an unbiased — well, as unbiased as I get — check by looking at our 15-team rankings, that are driven by Steamer, and Eury is ranked as the 60th best starter, so, woo boy. He’s after Lucas Giolito and Reid Detmers there! Hahahahahahahahaha–Breathe, Grey! Breathe!–hahahahahaha–Holy crap, we are losing him! He’s also ranked below Griffin Canning! Oh no, I’m going to faint! Someone catch me! Figuratively! Get your hands off me! So, I don’t love Eury as much as early drafters at NFBC, but maybe not as poorly as Steamer. My biggest issue is he’s going to throw 150 innings at the most, more likely much fewer. Everything else appears gorgeous. I also kept saying NFBC and their ADP, because I have a strong feeling that sites like Yahoo and ESPN will have Eury ranked much lower than this, so we will be able to draft him in some leagues as an upside number two. UPDATE: Sore elbow and going for tests. Uh-oh. 2024 Projections: 5-4/3.07/1.11/72 in 61 IP
58. Yusei Kikuchi – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 80 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Broken emergency anchor glass.” This tier is usually filled with safe number five starters who you can get cheap and they anchor your staff. In the past, this was a condom tier. Something that could glue the team together. A Dollar Store condom, so there was some risk, but the wrapper says it’s safe. Not this year. No one is safe. These guys are the closest guys I can find to anchor your staff, but the emergency glass is broken and the anchor is hanging out on the floor. You can see I’m very familiar with ships, thinking anchors are behind emergency glass. Usually this tier is cheap, older guys, but this year is a super random collection of risky starters that feel more “break in case of emergency” than usual.
As for Kikuchi, I’ve been meaning to rank him for the last twenty starters. He had a 9.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.77 xFIP, threw the most innings of his career, has had years of a 48% ground ball rate, and gained velocity. That’s going for him, and why I nearly ranked him twenty spots higher, but I guess he has some risk, because this is all new, i.e., if shizz went pear-shaped for Kikuchi in the first two weeks of April, would I have so much faith to not drop him? Absolutely not. 2024 Projections: 10-8/3.92/1.29/162 in 154 IP
59. Nick Lodolo – A pitcher getting 12 Ks in 5 IP and giving up 6 ER on three homers that all followed walks? That’s a LodoLOL. A start that is 12 Ks in 5 IP with 0 ER? That’s a LodoYOLO. He didn’t fit neatly in any tier. He’s way more upside (and downside) than the rest of this tier. With one eye, I can see how Lodolo looks like Tyler Glasnow 200 picks later. With my other eye, I can see how too many homers allowed in a terrible park with his command and he’s about to have you asking your commissioner if the league can change from ERA to xFIP. As long as he throws 130 IP with a 11-ish K/9, I’d guess he’ll be worth this draft spot pretty easily. 2024 Projections: 8-11/4.03/1.32/166 in 132 IP
60. Kenta Maeda – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Tigers. Have no idea what is going on with Kenta Maeda and the universe, but he needs to get right with it, because his luck is absurdly bad. His last two years (over three years, due to surgery which is its own kind of bad luck): 210 IP, 4.45-ish ERA and a 10-ish K/9 and 2.5-ish BB/9. If I had the time or inclination, I could see a Kenta Maeda sleeper post. I won’t be writing it, but I could see it.” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 8-10/3.94/1.16/164 in 144 IP
CONTINUE ON TO THE TOP 80 STARTERS
