[brid video=”199515″ player=”10951″ title=”Starters2018FantasyBaseball”]
To paraphrase Tupac from Brenda’s Got a Baby, “I hear Grey’s got 2018 fantasy baseball rankings, but Grey’s barely got a brain. A damn shame. That guy can hardly spell his name. GREY’S….GOT EM….RANKINGS! Don’t you know he’s got ’em. He wrote them solo, and he wrote them on his bathroom floor and didn’t know what to throw away and what to keep. He crumbled these rankings up and threw them in a trash heap. GREY’S….GOT EM….RANKINGS! Don’t you know he’s got ’em.” Don’t say I don’t keep my shizz socially conscious. Or is it socially conscience? Meh, doesn’t matter, I do it either way. So, this top 60 starters has eleven pitchers I’m not crazy about, which is more than half the post, so, uh, yeah, I’ve seen a better group of pitchers. Guess it’s to be expected after last year when the average ERA for a starter was, like, 6.45. As with previous rankings posts, my projections are included and where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball:
41. Danny Salazar – This tier started in the top 40 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball. This tier goes until Cueto. I called this tier, “Even Dave Matthews likes 4:44.” I wanna love Salazar because of his 12.7 K/9 in 103 IP. I can’t because he only threw 103 IP last year due to shoulder and elbow issues. I’m pretty much expecting to get screwed by Salazar in the exact opposite manner that I’ve been screwed by him every other year. Usually I’d own him and he’d be the number two I always dreamt of (after eating prunes). This year, I won’t own him and he’ll be a number two without the prunes. Revelation Alert! What if for the first 1,000 years of human existence men sat to pee? Then one day a man had terrible explosive diarrhea, and his wife was like, “You better clean that up,” and no one wants to clean the toilet, so instead he stood to pee and cleaned the crap with his urine. Then, of course, he was so impressed with his ingenuity, he was like, “Oh my god, this is the best thing ever, I have to tell other men about it,” and before long everyone was standing to pee. 2018 Projections: 10-8/3.91/1.32/164 in 134 IP
42. Taijuan Walker – Going on three years now, I’ve been all-in on Walker. This year, I’m taking a sabbatical. It’s not Black Sabbath, it’s Latino Sabbath, and I’m off Taijuan. Last year, he had a career high K/9 with 8.4, but his walk rate also ballooned up to 3.5. He has never been able to stay on the field for more than 170 IP, and Chase Field is so bleh, fancy cigar box or not. Finally, the percentage of pitches a batter swings at and missed with Walker has dropped to 8.6% and 27.4% on pitches outside the zone, which are poor rates, and make me think he’s fooling no one. So, this year, my ulcer will not have a tag on it reading, “Made in Taijuan.” 2018 Projections: 10-12/3.94/1.35/155 in 171 IP
43. Jon Lester – The King of Saberhagenmetrics just came off one of his worst seasons to date, so, if everything we know about Saberhagenmetrics holds true, Lester’s in store for one of his best seasons. Only problem with that is I can’t even justify drafting him due to Saberhagenmetrics, and I made up that facacta theory. “I see you like Lester this year.” “Oh, yes, Saberhagenmetrics says he’s going to be good.” That’s a crazy person explaining drafting Lester this year. 2018 Projections: 12-10/3.94/1.28/177 in 183 IP
44. Johnny Cueto – Seriously, I could could go on for another five or six starters who I don’t like, but I wanna jump back into guys I’m interested in. There will be more time for Herbs after the next tier or so. Cueto is about the easiest guy to figure out. For years, Cueto beat his xFIP by a lot — 2.82 ERA vs 3.23 xFIP — those types of years. Then, this past year it caught up to him. Know why? Because he didn’t pray? That’s your answer? No, that’s not why. Previously, he beat his predicted ERAs because he commanded his pitches so well, he made hitters make poor contact. This past year, his command went to hell, hard contact went sky high, literally, he gave up a shizzton of homers. He could fix his problems from last year, but I’m not risking it to see if he does. 2018 Projections: 10-11/3.81/1.24/165 in 188 IP
45. Jon Gray – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Bundy. I call this tier, “Candice Huffine.” For those that don’t know, Candice Huffine is a plus-sized model. She’s kinda smoking hot. Can we get her on the podcast? I wanna just talk to her for an hour. Grey’s got love for big girls. Does it negate anything nice I could say by saying I have love for big girls? P to the erhaps. So, why name this tier Candice Huffine? Because I’m looking at pitchers who may not be your standard definition of beauty, but I have love for them. As for Gray, he’s kinda sexy. Wait, does that ruin my new year’s resolution to no longer talk in third person? Oh, Jon Gray! Yes. Him. Resolution…Intact! Nice work, Grey! Damn! Gray’s K/9 is going to be above 9, so there’s a chance here for wonderful. How…ever, Coors. I snapped my fingers during the ellipsis in however. Still, at this price, I’m going in on Gray again. Okay, now this is getting dirty with seven R’s. 2018 Projections: 12-9/3.88/1.27/181 in 174 IP
46. Blake Snell – I already gave you a Blake Snell sleeper. It was written while writing a PhD dissertation on the similarities of West Side Story and the Beat It video. 2018 Projections: 13-9/3.68/1.30/185 in 183 IP
47. Chase Anderson – Confessional! *aims camcorder at funky chair in front of funky wall, sits in chair* Hey, so we just got home from DA CLUB, and Cassie has been bugging me all night. I think we’re gonna need a roommate meeting. Also, I didn’t expect to like Chase Anderson this year. Steamer hates him, and, while I don’t listen to everything Steamer says, they are the best projections in the business, so it would be foolish to not at least–COULD YOU BE QUIET OUT THERE, I’M DOING MY CONFESSIONAL! Sorry, Malliq got crazy drunk and is actin’ a fool. Where was I? Anderson! Right! Steamer projects him for 4.91 ERA. Um, okay. *mimes walking out of the room* Don’t want that, right? I hear ya, but his velocity went up by two miles per hour, and the changes look legit from when he was a 6.5 K/9 to a 8.5 K/9 guy. Okay, I’m gonna go see if Malliq cleaned the dishes yet. Peace. 2018 Projections: 13-9/3.71/1.14/152 in 171 IP
48. Jameson Taillon – Last year was a lost season for Taillon. *slowly crosses legs, winces* My general prediction for owning Taillon in 12-team leagues and shallower, a prediction not based on anything scientific, mind you. I draft him, he struggles in April, I drop him, then stream him in May and June, then finally own him again in July for six weeks, until he flames out in September. Damn, my predictions not based on anything are specific, huh? 2018 Projections: 10-7/3.51/1.29/141 in 152 IP
49. Patrick Corbin – Already gave you my Patrick Corbin sleeper. It was written while being fitted for gold fronts. 2018 Projections: 15-11/3.58/1.29/186 in 204 IP
50. Dylan Bundy – At this point, I’m looking for reasons to draft some upside, so take these small sample sizes with a grain of salt, which technically is a small sample size. In 65 IP, Bundy had the 24th best FIP in the 2nd half last year, the 23rd best K/9 (9.9) and the 27th best walk rate (2.3). If he has a 9.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over the course of this season, he’s going to be a top 15 starter next year. Know how I keep saying I like pitchers in their third major league season? Bundy’s about to enter it, and he’s only 25. Not that long ago, he was a top prospect. All Bundy needs to do is keep his homers down for a count of five, no problem there in the AL East. 2018 Projections: 10-12/3.77/1.24/181 in 197 IP
51. Lance Lynn – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Duffy. I call this tier, “Slice of bread bookmark.” Would a slice of bread work as a bookmark? Sure. Can you find better things to hold a page in a book? I’d guess so. That’s similar to these pitchers, because they could work fine as starters, but I think you can find better. In deeper leagues or leagues with an innings category, these guys get a boost. As for Lynn, I had the great fortune to own Lynn last year. I just giggled thinking about writing that. On the entire internet, when someone’s started a sentence, “I had the great fortune to…” I’m pretty sure the sentence ended with something of a bit more consequence than owning Lynn. I had the great fortune to…dine with the Dalai Lama. I had the great fortune to…discuss art with the MOMA chief curator. I had the great fortune to…walk on the moon. Nope, not me! I was fortunate to own Lynn. Will we be fortunate to own him again? Not feeling it. He was lucky last year with a .244 BABIP, the number of pitches batters swung at outside the zone dropped, and his walks were wild, man, wild. UPDATE: Signed with the Twins. Solid real baseball move by the Twins to sign Lynn, but it doesn’t make him more enticing, due to his peripherals that were discussed in the above blurb. Though, he will be trying to keep his BABIP in order again this year because he’ll be in another contract year. Kidding! Don’t buy the contract talk mumbo-slash-jumbo. 2018 Projections: 10-12/4.01/1.29/167 in 196 IP
52. Gio Gonzalez – Entering his contract year in 2018, which likely means nothing. If it means anything, it means his biological clock was a year fast and he just had his last great season. His fastball is now down below 90 MPH on average (from near-91 as recently as 2016), and his last year’s numbers of .258 BABIP and 81.6% LOB are kinda goofy. It’s not exactly illuminating to just write off every pitcher over the age of 32 who was lucky last year, but who said I was illuminating? What, I’m a nightlight? 2018 Projections: 11-11/4.08/1.30/171 in 184 IP
53. Michael Fulmer – A small peek into how I do the rankings. I look at the top 120 starters (or any position) and their ADP. I jot them down, then move them around on how I would draft them. I then go through every team’s depth chart to make sure I haven’t missed anyone. When I jot names down the first time, it gives me an idea of how others are drafting a player. If I then move a guy way down, I know he’s being overrated. With that said (here comes a point!), I moved Fulmer down almost 20 spots. I have no idea why people are drafting him so high. Last year, he had a 6.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 4.24 xFIP. He throws hard (95 MPH), but who cares? 2018 Projections: 9-13/3.73/1.14/139 in 181 IP
54. Kenta Maeda – Member about 374 words ago (guesstimate!) when I said this tier was solid for innings? Well, that’s aside from Maeda. Masidea? Oof, after that I should never be allowed to portmanteau again. Nomanteau? 2018 Projections: 12-7/3.91/1.13/144 in 142 IP
55. Danny Duffy – I have strong feelings about all the guys in this tier, except Duffy. I’m so meh on him, I couldn’t be more meh. My cup runneth over with meh. It’s that time of the month, and I got the mehses. I’m eating a tuna salad sandwich on white bread with extra meh-o. Hey, I just met you, and this is crazy, but here’s my number, so call me meh-be. Duffy is the meh-or of Meh-berry. Okay, I’m done. 2018 Projections: 10-12/3.76/1.25/149 in 172 IP
56. Jake Faria – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 80 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Stunod or in a mirror it’s donuts.” Stunod means stupid in Italian. I know this, of course, because my grandfather, who is 90 years old, has called me or someone a stunod every day of my life. I named this tier because we’re gonna look stupid drafting these guys, or we’re gonna look stupid smart with stupid being a superlative meaning ‘very.’ There’s a high probability that we draft someone from this tier, and drop them by April 10th. That’s not to say they’ll be bad. You might regret it, but you might not, and that’s why these guys are so risky. I do love all their upside. As for Faria, can the Rays save money by starting the year with him in the minors? Because if they can, you better believe they will. They are prolly in the process right now of painting their Evan Longoria bobbleheads’ face black and giving them away as Denard. Rays’ President of Operations, “It’s not racist, it’s practical.” 2018 Projections: 9-6/3.71/1.20/152 in 149 IP
57. Jordan Montgomery – His SwStr% was 12.2%, which was 15th in the majors, right behind Severino, Greinke and Darvish. In case SwStr% is foreign to you, the 1st 15 starters is an elite crop of pitchers. If it is foreign to you, does your language have a lot of percent signs in the words? Montgomery was 9th in the majors for swings generated outside the strike zone. This is one of my favorite stats because if someone’s swinging out of the strike zone, they’re likely not generating great contact. Shizz’s common sense. His best pitches are the change and curve. He threw both of them a lot. Why is obvious. His fastball is a piece of fake vomit you buy at Spencer’s Gifts that you get home to realize it’s real vomit. He threw his fastball the 4th least number of times in the majors last year, because when hitters saw it, they were like, “Yo, I don’t even need to take steroids if he’s throwing that crap.” If Montgomery fixes his fastball, he could be a top 20 starter. My guess is he doesn’t fix it this year, and he’s more of the same last year, which is still totally usable. 2018 Projections: 12-7/3.86/1.28/154 in 168 IP
58. Trevor Williams – Already gave you my Trevor Williams sleeper. It was written while Jameson Taillon was asking his doctor, “What’s the count?” 2018 Projections: 11-9/3.87/1.27/158 in 178 IP
59. Mike Clevinger – Another thing I do with my rankings, when I’m writing down all the names I plan on talking about, I jot down quick notes that I want to discuss when I come back to the players. For Clevinger, I wrote, “Rotation spot?” I still don’t know the answer to that pregunta. Right now, the Indians have Josh Tomlin in their rotation, but they’d be better off with Lily Tomlin, so I have to guess they go with Clevinger, at least for 150 IP. Now, if he were to get a 10.1 K/9 again like last year and 150 IP, I would’ve ranked him even higher, but, yeah, he could be the makings of a headache. He’s a 4+ BB/9 guy, so if his K/9 drops to minor league levels of 8.5, Clevinger won’t just sound like a murderer, he will be one to your fantasy team. The risk (not the board game) is worth it. 2018 Projections: 10-7/4.08/1.31/159 in 152 IP
60. Hyun-Jin Ryu – There’s quite a few guys in this tier who might not have a rotation job in April. Will Ryu? That sounds like will.i.am’s cousin. “Yo, you hear the track that Will Ryu produced for the Gorillaz? It’s got the boom bap.” “No, will.i.am has the boom bap, Will Ryu has the boom crack of the bat.” Instead of dance, Will Ryu’s tracks last year also made you walk. His 3.2 BB/9 is way above his 1.7 BB/9 from 2014, and he’s going to be 31 this year, so I’m not sure there’s any going back — boom crack of the bat! Though, Dodger Stadium, 8+ K/9 and a career 3.41 ERA still has me interested. 2018 Projections: 9-3/3.59/1.28/121 in 138 IP
